Q1 2026 container shipping: volumes return, pricing power does not
The Q1 2026 container shipping season produced one verdict. Volumes returned. Pricing power did not. The Strait of Hormuz has been quietly turned into a line item
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GeoTrends Team
Decks and Deals Weekly #42
Between 3 and 9 May 2026, global shipping markets digested a hardening Hormuz blockade, the Ocean Koi seizure, US-Iran live-fire exchanges, an Israeli counter-bid for ZIM, and a BDI rally through 3,000
Cape of Good Hope: the detour that became a doctrine
Three years after Houthi missiles drove the world’s container fleets southward, the Cape of Good Hope has graduated from emergency detour to default corridor. Brussels has yet to grasp the consequences
The Suez Canal recovery that never arrived
The Suez Canal recovery should be in full swing. The Houthis stopped attacking ships in November. War risk premiums collapsed. Yet container traffic remains 60% below 2023 levels
The repricing of American hegemony: who pays for dollar privilege
America is not losing its dollar privilege through a single shock. The repricing of American hegemony is a slow cost allocation, already in motion, quietly distributing the bill across four payers
Decks and Deals Weekly #41
Between 26 April and 2 May 2026, global shipping markets confronted a hardening Hormuz blockade, MEPC 84 talks in London, the UAE’s surprise exit from OPEC+, and Hapag-Lloyd’s shareholder-cleared takeover bid for ZIM
Two clocks, one cartel: The UAE OPEC exit and the Sunni Gulf’s real fault line
On 28 April 2026, the UAE OPEC exit landed during a war that had already shut the Strait of Hormuz. The market barely flinched. The Sunni Gulf did
From Hormuz to Lamu: the fragile rise of African ports
A car carrier unloads 469 vehicles at Lamu, a port that barely functioned a year ago. The Iran war has placed African ports at the centre of a reshuffled global trade map
LNG shipping’s borrowed time: when the bridge fuel must deliver
Over 800 LNG-capable vessels are already in service, and more than 600 are on order. For LNG shipping, the baseline technology question is settled. The supply chain question is not
Port of Piraeus: Record revenues, a shrinking core, and the questions nobody asked at Delphi
Angelos Karakostas arrived at Delphi with record revenues and previewed unreleased quarterly data. The full-year 2025 results, read carefully, tell a rather different story