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GeoTrends Team

AA Bronson, White Flag #9, Rabbit skin glue, Champagne chalk, raw honey on wool, cotton and metal grommet on linen, 2014

Debt, not war: the logic of hegemonic transition

In 1956, a phone call ended an empire. Not with bombs, but with bonds. Today’s hegemonic transition follows the same logic: power shifts not on battlefields, but through debt, currency and control of financial infrastructure

A weathered red wooden boat beached on a rocky shoreline, bound by fraying ropes, with a stormy sky and turquoise sea behind it

Decks and Deals Weekly #35

Between 8 and 14 March 2026, the tanker market set confirmed all-time rate records, Greek-owned ships took direct hits in two separate war zones, and the IEA launched its largest-ever emergency oil release

Minimalist world map showing illuminated connections linking London, Riyadh, and Nairobi to Shenzhen across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia

China’s Global Rest of World strategy: the table has moved

China’s Global Rest of World strategy abandons American volatility, forging a Sinocentric trade corridor through Riyadh, London, and Africa. This structural realignment creates an economic ecosystem increasingly insulated from Washington’s coercive leverage

Aerial view of a crude oil tanker underway on open turquoise water, helipad visible amidships

Decks and Deals Weekly #34

The week of March 1–7, 2026, handed global shipping its most disruptive seven days in decades: the Strait of Hormuz closed, tanker rates shattered records, and insurers quietly finished what the missiles started