When these wars end…
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are accelerating a historic redistribution of power, ensuring that the world emerging from these conflicts will look nothing like the one we know today
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Trump–Xi summit: no news is big news — and why Thucydides was never the trapper
The Trump–Xi summit became historic precisely because almost nothing happened, exposing a transformed balance of power and challenging the increasingly ritualistic misuse of the so-called “Thucydides Trap”
The strait that taught the markets to fear shadows
The Strait of Hormuz no longer shapes markets through disruption alone. It shapes them through anticipation, hesitation, memory, and the rising global cost of uncertainty
Decks and Deals Weekly #39
April 13–19 2026 produced the Hormuz reopening that lasted thirty hours Iran declared the strait open oil fell 9 percent tankers moved and by Saturday morning Tehran had reversed course leaving markets wrong-footed
One nautical mile
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open for commercial shipping — then reversed course thirty hours later. The Notice to Mariners it published tells a different story than the headlines did
The Strait of Hormuz is “open” — and almost nobody believes it
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open yesterday. Stocks surged, oil prices fell, and headlines celebrated. The tankers, however, did not move
The limits of nuclear deterrence: Russia–Ukraine, Israel–Gaza, Israel–Iran, India–Pakistan
Nuclear deterrence no longer guarantees security: recent conflicts reveal its limits, as both states and non-state actors increasingly bypass the restraining power of nuclear arsenals
Decks and Deals Weekly #38
The week of March 29 to April 4, 2026 brought a missile into Qatari sovereign waters, the first Western vessel through the Strait of Hormuz, and bunker prices that rewrote their record book
Iran’s Mosaic Defence: why the U.S.-Israeli air campaign is hitting smoke
Over a month into a campaign built on certainties, Washington and Tel Aviv have discovered that Iran’s Mosaic Defence does not simply survive decapitation strikes; it accelerates in their aftermath
Decks and Deals Weekly #37
The week of March 22–28, 2026 reshaped global shipping as Hormuz turned into a toll-controlled chokepoint, tanker markets split sharply, and geopolitical shocks from Ukraine to Yemen redrew the map of risk