The strait that taught the markets to fear shadows
The Strait of Hormuz no longer shapes markets through disruption alone. It shapes them through anticipation, hesitation, memory, and the rising global cost of uncertainty
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TANKER MARKET
Decks and Deals Weekly #40
The period 20–25 April 2026 produced the most intense maritime standoff since the tanker wars of the 1980s: the Hormuz blockade turned fully kinetic, Brent crossed $100, and six vessels were seized
The Strait of Hormuz is “open” — and almost nobody believes it
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open yesterday. Stocks surged, oil prices fell, and headlines celebrated. The tankers, however, did not move
When flows move before the data does: inside the market that no longer waits for confirmation
In modern energy shipping, markets are increasingly driven by behavior and perceived risk rather than confirmed data, reshaping flows, pricing mechanisms, and strategic positioning before statistics can validate the shift
Decks and Deals Weekly #36
Between 15 and 21 March 2026, global shipping faced its most compressed week of crisis and calculation — war insurance at 5%, a collapsed record fixture, a proxy fight, and Trump walking away from Hormuz
Decks and Deals Weekly #35
Between 8 and 14 March 2026, the tanker market set confirmed all-time rate records, Greek-owned ships took direct hits in two separate war zones, and the IEA launched its largest-ever emergency oil release
Hormuz shock and the shipping gamble
The duration of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will determine whether shipping markets see a temporary freight-rate boom or face the early signal of a broader global economic slowdown
Decks and Deals Weekly #33
From February 22 to 28, 2026, the global shipping market absorbed three simultaneous shocks: a US-Israeli strike on Iran closed Hormuz, Panama ejected Hutchison, and container rates logged their seventh straight weekly decline
Decks and Deals Weekly #31
Between 8–14 February 2026, the global shipping industry showcased a stark dichotomy: a record-breaking surge in newbuild orders, primarily in tankers, confronted the grim reality of looming overcapacity and falling freight rates
When the sea stops obeying the charts
Rethinking power, risk, and signal in the modern tanker market, this essay explores how perception, positioning, and reflexivity now shape freight behavior beyond traditional supply-and-demand logic