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OVERCAPACITY

Pilot boat, tug, and buoy in a quiet Suez Canal scene with no passing ships and empty waterway stretching ahead

The Suez Canal recovery that never arrived

The Suez Canal recovery should be in full swing. The Houthis stopped attacking ships in November. War risk premiums collapsed. Yet container traffic remains 60% below 2023 levels

Aerial view of large container ships under construction at a major Asian shipyard, with cranes, dry docks, and multiple vessels visible

The 2026 global shipping outlook: A perfectly engineered glut

The global shipping outlook for 2026 is a masterclass in self-sabotage. After years of record profits, the industry has enthusiastically ordered enough new ships to guarantee a spectacular collapse in freight rates, creating chaos

COSCO Shipping container vessel sailing near a busy Chinese port, symbolising fleet expansion, global trade scale, and strategic ambitions

COSCO’s $7bn fleet gamble: Power play or overcapacity catalyst?

While the world was distracted, COSCO quietly signed a $7 billion deal for 87 new ships. This colossal move isn’t just about adding vessels; it’s a calculated reconstruction of maritime power—one that could reshape global shipping for a decade

A wooden pier extending over calm water with two people standing at the end and a distant ship in the background

Decks and Deals Weekly #18

The global shipping market is sending mixed signals. While container lines brace for a difficult 2026 due to overcapacity, Greek owners are doubling down on LNG, cementing their strategic role in Europe’s energy security

Container port at sunset with cranes and stacked shipping containers along the waterfront

Container shipping rates crash back to pre-crisis levels

Container shipping rates have collapsed to December 2023 levels, erasing two years of crisis-driven gains as carriers face mounting overcapacity, tariff pressures, and a record orderbook threatening further market deterioration