When Russia rolled its tanks into Ukraine, the world took notice. But one audience has been particularly attentive: Beijing’s military planners. The conflict in Eastern Europe has been a live demonstration of what works—and what doesn’t—when a superior force faces a smaller but determined adversary. Across the South China Sea, Taiwan is watching just as closely, though its situation is far from identical.
Military analysts argue that Taiwan defense strategy hinges on a denial-based approach—making an invasion by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) too costly. The question is: has Ukraine’s war validated or complicated this theory?
Blockade, invasion, or something in between?
The debate over how Beijing might seek unification with Taiwan isn’t settled. Some believe a semi-permanent blockade could strangle the island’s economy, forcing a surrender without a single shot fired. Others suggest an on-and-off blockade—economic and military pressure applied incrementally, boiling the frog over time. Then there’s the full-scale invasion scenario, a high-risk gamble that would put Chinese forces on Taiwan’s shores in a matter of days.
China’s recent military exercises suggest that all options are on the table. Large-scale naval drills, cyber intrusions, and airspace incursions signal that Beijing is keeping its playbook flexible. The lessons from Ukraine, where a direct invasion met fierce resistance, may push Chinese strategists to consider alternatives to a costly amphibious assault.
Military hardware won’t win the war alone
Ukraine’s resilience wasn’t just about Western weapons. It was about strategy, logistics, and flexibility. Taiwan, facing an even greater military asymmetry, may not afford a conventional arms race. This has led some analysts to push for an asymmetric Taiwan defense strategy, favoring drones, mobile missile launchers, and a decentralized command structure.
Ukraine’s war has also underlined the importance of battlefield transparency. Drones provided real-time intelligence, giving smaller forces an edge. Unmanned naval and aerial vehicles helped Kyiv counter Russian superiority at sea. These lessons are now being examined in Taipei’s military circles.
However, even the best asymmetric strategies face a reality check: quantity matters. Ukraine has survived in part because Western nations keep its supply lines open. Taiwan, an island with limited ability to resupply in wartime, might not have that luxury.
Numbers, production, and the logistics problem
As any seasoned admiral will tell you, “Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.” War isn’t just about who has the better weapons—it’s about who can keep fighting longer.
Ukraine has relied on uninterrupted Western aid, preventing it from being out-produced or out-mobilized. Taiwan, by contrast, sits in a much more precarious position. While it is investing in stockpiles, questions remain about its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. Many analysts argue that Taipei must shift towards assets that can be mass-produced quickly and locally, rather than high-tech systems dependent on foreign suppliers.
The non-military factor: Money talks
Military strength is one part of the equation. Economic leverage is another. While China could opt for military force, Beijing has long favored economic coercion. The question is whether Taiwan can counter this with trade and financial alignments.
Some policymakers suggest that diversifying Taiwan’s trade partnerships—particularly through multilateral agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—could strengthen its economic resilience. Others believe deepening ties with regional actors, such as Japan and Australia, could provide an additional layer of security.
China, of course, holds powerful economic cards of its own. As the largest trading partner for many Indo-Pacific nations, Beijing’s ability to pressure third parties remains formidable.
The Indo-Pacific’s shifting alliances
Taiwan’s position in the Indo-Pacific security framework is growing more prominent. The U.S., Japan, Australia, and South Korea have all signaled increased military and diplomatic cooperation. The Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia) has not explicitly pledged support for Taiwan, but its broader pushback against Chinese influence has clear implications.
Japan, in particular, has hardened its stance. Tokyo’s recent military buildup—including doubling its defense budget—reflects growing concerns about regional stability. Australia has likewise strengthened security ties with the U.S. through AUKUS, signaling a greater willingness to counterbalance China’s rise.
Would these countries intervene directly in a Taiwan crisis? That remains uncertain. Western nations support Ukraine with arms and intelligence, but have drawn a firm line against direct military involvement. Taiwan might face a similar reality—strong diplomatic backing but no boots on the ground.
The Ukraine dilemma: Allies, but at what cost?
Ukraine’s war has showcased the power of alliances, but also their limitations. While Western aid has been critical, it has come with constraints, delays, and political calculations. Taiwan could find itself in a similar situation, reliant on external support but subject to geopolitical realities beyond its control.
The reliance on foreign arms also exposes another issue: sustainability. Ukraine has had to adapt to multiple weapons systems from different suppliers, creating logistical challenges. Taiwan would likely face similar hurdles, especially if wartime supply chains are disrupted.
Then there’s the bigger question: would Western nations risk economic retaliation from China to support Taiwan? Unlike Russia, China is deeply integrated into the global economy. Sanctions on Beijing wouldn’t just hurt China—they’d send shockwaves worldwide. That calculation complicates any assumption of automatic support.
The information war
If Ukraine has excelled in one area, it’s strategic messaging. Kyiv has successfully framed its defense as a fight for democracy, rallying global support. Taiwan, as a democratic outpost in Asia, may have a similar narrative advantage.
However, messaging alone won’t shift the battlefield. Beijing’s state-controlled media machinery is formidable. If tensions escalate, the battle for international perception will be fought as much on social media as on the seas.
No clear answers, only scenarios
The war in Ukraine has given the world a front-row seat to modern conflict. Taiwan defense strategy is evolving in real time, shaped by these lessons—but also by its own unique constraints.
Will Beijing opt for coercion over conflict? Will Taiwan’s military posture be enough to deter an attack? And if conflict comes, will international support be enough? The answers remain uncertain, but the clock is ticking.
One thing is clear: the Indo-Pacific landscape is changing, and Taiwan is at its center.