If there’s one thing the Chinese leadership excels at, it’s making the most of geopolitical shifts with minimal exertion. The latest iteration of U.S.-Russia dialogue offers a textbook case. While Washington and Moscow cautiously probe for a détente, Beijing secures three strategic advantages: sustaining its deep partnership with Russia, exploiting cracks in the transatlantic alliance, and positioning itself as a reliable alternative for European capitals wary of American unpredictability.
On February 24, President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin held a virtual meeting. The key takeaway? Moscow is keeping Beijing in the loop on its discussions with Washington regarding Ukraine. China doesn’t need to be at the negotiating table to shape the outcome; it just needs to be informed. That alone allows Beijing to adjust its positions in real time and mitigate any risks of a U.S.-Russia reset undermining its strategic interests.
The irony is unmistakable. Washington’s attempt at a “Reverse Nixon”—peeling Russia away from China as Nixon once did with Beijing against the Soviet Union—is floundering. Moscow has neither the incentive nor the leverage to trade its China partnership for an uncertain rapport with an America that oscillates between hostility and overtures, depending on electoral cycles.
The European dilemma: A widening transatlantic rift
China’s diplomatic machine has been quick to capitalize on growing unease in European capitals. Washington’s engagement with Moscow has done little to reassure its allies. While the Biden administration previously insisted that Europe must be involved in any Ukraine-related negotiations, the U.S.-Russia discussions remain largely bilateral. The message to Europe? You’ll be informed, not consulted.
Beijing sees an opening. It has long courted European nations with promises of economic cooperation and a more “stable” partnership than the one offered by an America that ricochets between interventionism and isolationism. By positioning itself as a pragmatic and predictable player, China hopes to erode Western unity.
The Wang Yi doctrine: Stability with a side of subversion
Enter Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister and political chess master. At the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Johannesburg on February 20, Wang delivered a carefully calibrated message. His three-pronged diplomatic narrative was clear:
- China is a guardian of world peace, advocating dialogue over confrontation.
- China promotes a new security paradigm—one based on cooperation, not alliances.
- China defends multilateralism against Western attempts to dictate global governance.
None of this was accidental. Wang’s remarks came as peace talks over Ukraine gained traction, and as China subtly endorsed U.S.-Russia engagement—so long as it didn’t diminish Moscow’s reliance on Beijing. He also made sure to stress China’s support for the Global South, a calculated move aimed at countering Western influence beyond the transatlantic sphere.
The unspoken reality: Russia’s dependence on China
For all the speculation about Russia breaking free from China’s embrace, the facts tell a different story. Economic realities dictate that Moscow has little choice but to maintain its deepening ties with Beijing. Western sanctions have pushed Russia closer to the Chinese market, from energy exports to military technology cooperation.
Xi’s upcoming May visit to Moscow—timed for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II—will only reinforce this bond. Expect grand declarations about an “unbreakable” partnership, with carefully worded jabs at Western interference.
The world Trump is shaping
The elephant in the room is, of course, Donald Trump’s return. Now firmly back in the White House, his transactional approach to foreign policy, coupled with his disdain for NATO, is exacerbating the very trends China seeks to exploit: a fractured West and an unpredictable America.
Trump’s efforts to end the Ukraine war may signal a shift in U.S. priorities, but they also highlight Washington’s waning patience for European security concerns. While he pushes for a resolution, China quietly fortifies its influence—ensuring that any outcome still serves Beijing’s long-term interests.
Whether Europe can withstand another round of American whiplash remains an open question.
In the meantime, China plays the long game. And right now, it’s playing it well.