The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has drastically altered Syria’s political reality. Damascus, once a symbol of his control, has fallen to opposition forces. This marks the end of over six decades of Baath Party rule. The militant group HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, now dominates the political scene. Emerging from the shadow of al-Nusra, HTS has evolved into a major force with ambitions beyond military power.
Al-Jolani has shifted his approach, portraying himself as a pragmatic leader. This repositioning appeals to Western powers seeking stable partners in the region. With Assad’s regime collapsing and its allies—Russia and Iran—focusing elsewhere, HTS is seizing the opportunity to solidify its control.
Kurdish zones: A balancing act
The Kurdish-controlled zones in northern Syria, rich in resources like oil and gas, remain strategically important. The Kurds, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), played a vital role in the fight against ISIS. However, they now face significant challenges. Turkey views Kurdish autonomy as a threat and continues its military operations in the region.
Despite U.S. support, the Kurds must navigate an uncertain future. The fall of Damascus creates opportunities for further autonomy, but Turkish aggression could undermine their efforts. The Kurds’ ability to maintain control over their territories and negotiate with powerful actors will shape their role in Syria’s reconstruction.
Iran’s waning influence in the region
Iran, once a dominant force in Syria, is facing a decline in its influence. For years, Tehran supported Assad and armed groups like Hezbollah to expand its regional footprint. However, Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah and Iran’s assets have weakened this strategy.
With Assad’s fall, Iran’s position is even more precarious. Tehran is now reassessing its priorities, focusing on its nuclear program and broader geopolitical challenges. Although it may attempt to reinforce its alliances, Iran’s diminished role in Syria signals a shift in the Middle Eastern power balance.
Russia’s focus shifts to Ukraine
Russia’s military intervention was instrumental in propping up Assad’s regime. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has diverted Moscow’s attention and resources. Russia’s strategic priorities have shifted, leaving Syria less central to its geopolitical agenda.
While Russia still seeks to influence Syria’s future, its direct involvement has decreased. Moscow is now engaging more with Turkey and Iran to protect its interests. This recalibration indicates that Russia’s role in Syria may evolve into one of strategic oversight rather than active participation.
Turkey’s growing role in post-Assad Syria
Turkey has emerged as a dominant player in Syria. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has capitalized on Assad’s fall to strengthen its influence. Ankara’s primary goals include securing its borders, curbing Kurdish ambitions, and shaping Syria’s political landscape.
Turkey’s military operations and diplomatic maneuvers position it as a key regional power. With Russia’s reduced involvement and Iran’s waning influence, Turkey is likely to play a leading role in determining Syria’s future. Its actions will have significant implications for Kurdish aspirations and the broader balance of power in the Middle East.
The West and al-Jolani: A calculated gamble?
The West faces a critical decision regarding its approach to Syria. Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, once labeled an extremist, is rebranding himself as a legitimate leader. His efforts have attracted Western interest, as al-Jolani presents a potential partner in stabilizing the region.
While controversial, engaging with HTS could offer a practical solution to fill the power vacuum left by Assad. The West’s willingness to work with al-Jolani will shape Syria’s political future and influence broader regional dynamics.
The U.S. at a crossroads
The Biden administration has largely maintained a cautious approach to Syria, focusing on containing Iranian influence and supporting Kurdish forces. However, the upcoming U.S. presidential transition in 2025 could lead to a significant policy shift. Donald Trump’s return to office might prioritize disengagement or align with authoritarian figures like al-Jolani if it serves U.S. interests.
Such a change could destabilize Syria further, leaving the region vulnerable to new conflicts. How the U.S. navigates this transition will have a lasting impact on Syria’s trajectory and the broader Middle East.
Prospects for regional stability
The fall of Damascus marks a turning point, but the path to stability remains uncertain. Regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Russia are recalibrating their strategies, while the Kurds and HTS vie for influence. The West’s evolving role adds another layer of complexity.
As alliances shift and new power dynamics emerge, the future of Syria hangs in the balance. Whether these developments lead to lasting peace or prolonged conflict will depend on the actions of regional and global players. Syria’s collapse is not just a regional upheaval; it is the spark in a global powder keg, threatening to redraw the world’s maps and rewrite its alliances in flames.