The total annual cost of geopolitical crises occurring in strategic maritime passages amounts to $14 billion for the global shipping industry, according to a study by the University of Oxford, authored by Dr Jasper Verschuur, Dr Johannes Lumma, and Professor Jim Hall.
The study quantifies the structural vulnerability of global trade, which relies on a limited number of narrow maritime corridors that are increasingly becoming focal points of geopolitical tensions and natural hazards.
Trade disruptions and rising shipping costs
The researchers estimate that disruptions at critical maritime chokepoints affect seaborne trade worth approximately $192 billion each year.
The economic footprint of these crises is not limited to isolated incidents but recurs on an annual basis, as delays, vessel rerouting, increased insurance premiums, and higher freight rates are transformed into a steady cost for shipping and supply chains.
Key maritime passages driving global trade risks
At the center of the analysis are 24 maritime passages, such as the Suez Canal, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Straits of Malacca, through which a significant share of global trade and energy flows passes.
According to the study’s data, direct economic losses from crises at these points amount to $10.7 billion annually, a figure corresponding to approximately 0.04% of global trade.
In addition, losses of $3.4 billion per year are recorded due to increased transport costs, as freight rates rise whenever a passage becomes unsafe or impassable.
Countries most vulnerable to chokepoint crises
The study highlights that the most severe impacts are observed in countries with a high dependence on specific geographic chokepoints.
Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Panama appear particularly exposed, as their geographic position and role in international trade render their economies vulnerable to any disruption of navigation.
However, the impacts are not confined to these states but spread internationally through higher transport costs and pressure on markets.
Overlapping threats: Conflict, piracy, and extreme weather
A critical finding of the study is that risks at maritime chokepoints do not operate in isolation. Armed conflicts, terrorism, and piracy often coexist in the same geographic areas, such as Bab el-Mandeb, the Bosphorus, and the Lombok Straits.
At the same time, extreme weather events intensify instability, as a significant share of tropical cyclones simultaneously affects more than one critical maritime passage, increasing the likelihood of multiple disruptions and limiting the options for vessel rerouting.
Broader global consequences beyond shipping
The consequences of these developments are not confined to shipping. Delays in the transport of raw materials, components, and energy cargoes can lead to production disruptions, shortages, and price increases, which are ultimately passed on to businesses and consumers.
The authors of the study emphasize that strengthening the resilience of supply chains, through route diversification, safety stocks, and investments in the security of maritime routes, constitutes a critical prerequisite for the stability of international trade in an environment of prolonged geopolitical uncertainty.