KEY TAKEAWAYS
- China has seen rapid economic growth, surpassing the U.S. in PPP terms with a GDP of $35.3 trillion in 2023, and becoming the second-largest economy nominally at $18.5 trillion.
- China is the largest trading partner for over 120 countries and leads in R&D spending ($570 billion in 2022) and patent filings (1.58 million).
- China’s military is the largest globally with 2 million active personnel, and its military budget reaches $474 billion.
- The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has invested over $1 trillion in more than 140 countries.
- Rather than hegemonic in nature, its quality of disposition seems to be much more win-win- and cooperation-oriented.
- China is the present, not “the future.” It is already here, and on the rise.
For different reasons, businessmen, policymakers, and scholars need an accurate overview of global affairs in all their multi-faceted nature. Yet at the same time, humans have an innate tendency to think that the world remains fundamentally unchanged during their heretofore lifetime. Nothing could be further from the truth regarding China, a state of 1.4 billion people.
Few nations in modern history have transformed themselves as dramatically as China has over the past few decades. A look at the numbers reveals the extent of this shift and the profound implications for global power structures. China’s rise is not merely a future possibility; it is already reshaping the world economy, geopolitics, technology, and trade on a scale that demands attention and understanding.
To grasp the scale of China’s transformation, consider the following. In 1980, the U.S. economy accounted for about 22% of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), while China’s share was a mere 3%. By 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), those percentages had dramatically shifted to 15.3% for the U.S. and 18.2% for China. This reversal in global economic weight is not just a statistical oddity; it represents the culmination of a decades-long trajectory of economic reforms, foreign investment, and rapid industrialization that has turned China into the world’s manufacturing hub.
Today, China boasts a nominal GDP of $18.5 trillion (2024), making it the second-largest economy globally. Even more tellingly, when adjusted for PPP, China’s economy is already the largest in the world, surpassing the U.S. at approximately $35.3 trillion. This economic muscle translates into an outsized influence in global markets, as China is now the largest trading partner for more than 120 countries and the leading exporter worldwide.
In the arena of technology, China has gone from being perceived as a copycat economy to a global innovator. The country is the second-largest spender on research and development (R&D), with $570 billion invested in 2022, reflecting a 15% annual increase over the past two decades. This R&D drive is part of a broader strategy to ensure China’s leadership in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, and semiconductors.
China’s patent filings, a key indicator of innovation, reached 1.58 million in 2022, accounting for about 45% of the global total. This emphasis on technology is reshaping industries worldwide, especially as China’s companies, such as Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent, dominate sectors ranging from telecommunications to e-commerce. Sanctions of various kinds and colours do not seem to be aging well.
With a population of approximately 1.41 billion in 2023, China remains, on par with India, the most populous country in the world. Over the past four decades, rapid urbanization has drawn hundreds of millions from rural areas into cities, creating megacities like Shanghai and Shenzhen. As of 2023, around 65% of China’s population lives in urban areas, up from just 18% in 1978. Furthermore, China recently succeeded in lifting 55.75 million rural residents out of absolute poverty and provided basic medical insurance for over 1.3 billion people and basic pension welfare for over 1 billion people — a historical first.
China’s growing economic clout is accompanied by its military expansion, coupled with an absence of the heretofore all-too-familiar hegemonical tendencies of other superpowers. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with 2 million active-duty personnel, is the largest military force globally. Furthermore, China’s military spending, estimated at $474 billion in 2024, reflects almost a doubling over the previous year, underscoring the country’s desire to assert its influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
Geopolitically, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) stands as a testament to its ambitions. Launched in 2013, the BRI aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through infrastructure projects, and by 2023, China had invested over $1 trillion in more than 140 countries. This initiative not only strengthens China’s geopolitical influence but also ensures that its economy remains deeply intertwined with global trade routes.
The broader context of China’s rise must be understood against the backdrop of global demographic and economic shifts. In 1980, the combined population of the G7 nations (the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Canada) was approximately 618 million, out of a global population of 4.45 billion. In 2023, the G7’s population has grown to 788 million, but in a world of 8.162 billion people, the G7 now represents only about 9.67% of the global population.
This stark demographic contrast underscores the shifting balance of power. The G7, long seen as the dominant economic and political bloc, no longer holds the demographic weight it once did. Meanwhile, China, with its vast population and growing economy, stands as a central player in the multipolar world that is taking shape.
Given that China’s quality of disposition seems to be much more win-win- and cooperation-oriented, rather than hegemonic and exclusive in nature, what does its rise mean in the context of great power competition? A most fascinating exchange, inter alia on this, transpired on 16 September 2024 between American Professors John Mearsheimer (University of Chicago) and Jeffrey Sachs (Columbia University). The celebrated academics disagreed almost only about the implications of China’s rise, with incandescent arguments. Any summation would not do it justice; the reader is invited to watch at least that segment of the debate. Simply searching online for litanies of acronyms such as BRICS+, BRI, EAEU, ASEAN, SCO, AIIB, and RCEP adds a further layer to the above overview. And, by default, all references to “second-largest” in the above have a definitive expiration date sooner rather than later: the “second-” part is destined to be dropped. There is a common misconception that “China is the future.” No: China is the present. And, again, businessmen, policymakers, and scholars need an accurate overview of global affairs in all their multi-faceted nature— as they are today and as they are sensibly expected to be tomorrow, not as they were once upon a time. China’s rise is already reshaping the world in profound ways, and understanding its significance is not just an exercise in foresight; it is a necessity for anyone engaging with the global landscape today.
* Sotiris Mitralexis holds a doctorate in political science and international relations; he works at University College London as a research fellow.