A wind of change is sweeping through the political landscape of Turkish foreign policy with Turkey’s application to join the BRICS bloc (an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Turkey will be the first NATO member and EU candidate striving for a BRICS membership, a bloc of emerging economies. Is this a calculated effort to balance Turkey’s alliances between Western and Eastern powers or could it signal a broader pivot away from Europe?
The “realignment” of Turkey eastward, as framed by Ankara, reflects a perceived global power shift from West to East. As Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan put it, BRICS offers a good alternative to the EU. Despite its long-standing membership in NATO, Turkey’s EU accession has faced significant hurdles since 2005, not to mention Turkey’s endeavor to join the EU antecedent organization the European Economic Community in 1987. Despite the failed negotiations, Turkey remains a vital player in the geopolitical ladder as it consists of a bridge to Russia and countries in the Middle East.
Amid stalled negotiations and lack of progress in the EU accession, Turkey aims to assert its rightful place in world affairs and foster growth in its EU-hampered defense sector. For Ankara, BRICS -led by Moscow and Beijing- presents a compelling alternative offering a broader diplomatic framework to leverage its demands while reforming the existing world order. BRICS aims to establish itself as a counterweight to the Western-driven global order envisioning to de-dollarize the trade market by creating a new currency for international financial transactions. At the same time, Ankara is seeking to advance its position in the Sanghai Cooperation Organization from a dialogue partner to a full member since 2013 -a move that could challenge the cooperation between Turkey and NATO members due to a non-aligned stance.
Turkey’s growing ties with Moscow and Beijing is straining its relationships with Western allies, particularly as Ankara seeks to return to the U.S. F-35 fighter jet programme from which it was excluded due to its acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems. Integrating the S-400 into Turkey’s defense system would expose NATO’s secrets to Kremlin engineers. This, in turn, could compromise the security of F-35 fighter jets, which are the backbone of NATO’s defense strategy against Russia and China. In the interim, in an annual report for 2023 the MEPs concluded that Turkey’s alignment with EU’s common foreign and security policy has steeply declined to an all-time low 7%, calling for Turkey to “break the current deadlock.”
Despite Sweden’s NATO accession, which is connected to the approval of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, Ankara’s declining alignment and transactional approach are raising concerns in Western capitals. Some experts went as far as to even suggest that Turkey’s expulsion from the Alliance could be considered. Ankara’s strategic pivot, embodied by its BRICS application and deepening ties with Moscow and Beijing, reflects a strategic rebalancing in response to the evolving multipolar world order. This bid signals a recalibration of its global alliances, posing serious risks that could deteriorate the relationships with its Western allies.
As Ankara navigates this complex balancing act between competing global powers, the question remains whether this strategy represents a temporary adjustment or a long-term realignment. Ultimately, Turkey’s next steps will play a crucial role in shaping its future in both Western and Eastern geopolitical spheres.
*Angeliki Vrettou is International Relations analyst.