International shipping is entering a phase in which geopolitical instability is no longer a temporary phenomenon but is becoming a permanent source of business risk. Armed conflicts, the reconfiguration of trade flows, new tariffs, cyber threats and delays in regulatory decision-making are shaping a highly uncertain environment, in which shipping managements are required to take decisions without a clear institutional horizon.
Within this context, the need for reliable data and for capturing the true sense of risk prevailing in the market is gaining increased importance. Experience over recent years shows that political instability operates as a multiplier: it does not affect only trade relations and sea lanes, but extends into areas such as financing, cybersecurity and compliance with an increasingly complex regulatory framework.
This picture has been systematically documented in recent years through the ICS Maritime Barometer, an institutional mechanism for recording confidence levels and concerns among senior shipping executives. The annual report, now in its fifth year, seeks to filter current affairs from information overload and political narratives, recording how global developments translate into operational pressure.
Political instability as a permanent risk factor
One of the consistent findings across successive editions is that political instability is ranked at the top of the risks identified by shipping leaders. The lack of clear direction from governments and international organisations, combined with the growing trend towards protectionism, directly affects fleet planning, investment decisions and fuel choices.
Developments in the Red Sea, the intensification of regional conflicts and the acceleration of geopolitical fragmentation during the period 2024–2025 were added to an already strained environment. At the same time, new tariff regimes and changes in supply chains confirm that geopolitical decisions are no longer external shocks, but a core variable in business planning.
Particular significance is also attributed to the role played by geopolitics in discussions at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in October 2025, during the process of shaping the Net-Zero Framework. The delay in reaching a decision, despite earlier signs of cautious optimism for a global framework to regulate carbon emissions, increased uncertainty for part of the market, while for other players it created space for alternative strategies.
Technology, fuels and cybersecurity
Alongside risks, the barometer also records areas where investment interest is concentrated. The use of LNG remains firmly in focus as a transitional solution, together with emission-abatement technologies and biofuels. At the same time, long-term confidence is recorded in fuels such as methanol and ammonia, despite technical and regulatory uncertainties.
Also of interest is the cyclical nature of attention paid to individual technologies, such as wind-assisted propulsion, which experienced periods of heightened interest but appears to be receding as institutional progress on emission regulations remains slow.
A significant increase is recorded in demand for cybersecurity solutions and digital compliance tools, reflecting both the rise in cyber threats and fatigue among companies caused by the administrative burden of regulation. Companies offering specialised, functional digital solutions appear to be in a more advantageous position.
Resilience, but without illusions
Despite the accumulation of risks, the overall picture that emerges is that of a sector with a high degree of adaptability. Shipping has already been tested by pandemics, geopolitical shocks, cyber-attacks and regulatory upheavals, while maintaining the operation of the global supply chain.
However, the critical question for the years ahead is not whether the sector will endure, but whether it will be able to move in a coordinated manner within an environment where risks interact and reinforce one another. The lack of clear direction increases the cost of waiting and turns strategy into an exercise in managing uncertainty.
It is precisely at this point that the role of tools such as the ICS Maritime Barometer becomes relevant: not to prescribe solutions, but to create a shared evidence base and common understanding for governments, regulators and the industry itself. In a period when headlines change rapidly, the need for a clear picture of real risks and real opportunities becomes decisive for charting a course.