The Middle East, a region often synonymous with geopolitical tension and resource conflicts, is facing an existential threat that transcends borders and ideologies: water scarcity. The crisis is not new, but its intensity and implications are growing exponentially due to climate change, population growth, and mismanagement of resources. The data and insights in this article are drawn from the comprehensive report The Thirst for Power: Overcoming the Politics of Water in the Middle East by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). This report highlights how water insecurity is not just an environmental issue but a political, economic, and social challenge that threatens the stability of the entire region.
The Middle East is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world, with many countries relying on transboundary water sources that are increasingly under strain. From the Tigris and Euphrates in Iraq to the Jordan River basin, the region’s water resources are being depleted, polluted, and weaponized.
This article delves into the water crises in four key countries—Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Jordan—exploring the unique challenges each faces and the broader implications for the region.
Syria: A nation parched by war and mismanagement
Syria’s water crisis is a tragic example of how conflict and environmental degradation can intertwine to create a humanitarian disaster. Once known as the “breadbasket of the region,” Syria’s agricultural sector has been decimated by a combination of drought, war, and upstream water diversions by Türkiye.
The collapse of agriculture
The northeastern region of Syria, which traditionally produced 60% of the country’s wheat, has been hit hard by prolonged droughts. Between 2021 and 2023, rainfall dropped to 50-70% below historical averages, leading to catastrophic crop failures. The once-mighty Euphrates River, which provides 85% of Syria’s renewable water, has seen its flow reduced to historic lows due to upstream damming by Türkiye. This has crippled irrigation systems and hydroelectric power generation, leaving millions without access to clean water or electricity.
The Euphrates’ flow has dropped to less than 200 cubic meters per second, far below the 500 cubic meters per second mandated by a 1987 agreement between Syria and Türkiye. This reduction has had a devastating impact on agriculture, with wheat production plummeting to just 1 million tons in 2021 and 2022, a quarter of the pre-war average. Farmers, unable to irrigate their fields, have been forced to abandon their land, leading to widespread food insecurity.
Humanitarian and political fallout
The water crisis has exacerbated Syria’s ongoing civil war, displacing thousands of farmers and herders who can no longer sustain their livelihoods. The Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) struggles to manage water resources amidst political isolation and limited international support. Meanwhile, Turkish-backed opposition factions have weaponized water by cutting off supplies to regions under AANES control. For example, the Alouk water station, which supplies drinking water to around 1 million people in Hasakah province, has been repeatedly shut down by Turkish-backed groups.
The international community’s dwindling interest in Syria’s humanitarian crisis has left the country ill-equipped to address its water insecurity. In 2024, humanitarian funding for Syria was only 37% of what was needed, forcing the UN World Food Programme to limit food assistance to just 5.6 million people. This lack of support has further destabilized an already fragile nation, with water insecurity now a key driver of conflict and displacement.
Yemen: A fragile state on the edge of water collapse
Yemen’s water crisis is a stark reminder of how environmental degradation can fuel conflict and displacement. The country, already one of the poorest in the Arab world, faces severe water scarcity due to over-extraction of groundwater, climate change, and a lack of effective governance.
The Sana’a Basin: A microcosm of crisis
The Sana’a Basin, which supplies water to Yemen’s capital and surrounding agricultural areas, is on the verge of collapse. Groundwater levels are dropping by 2-6 meters annually, and the basin’s aquifers are being depleted at an unsustainable rate. Agriculture, which consumes nearly 90% of Yemen’s water, is dominated by water-intensive crops like qat, a mild stimulant that provides little nutritional value but is deeply embedded in Yemeni culture. Qat cultivation accounts for 25-43% of agricultural water use in the Sana’a Basin, up from 15-30% in 2007.
Conflict and water insecurity
Yemen’s ongoing civil war has further complicated water management. The Houthi rebels, who control much of northern Yemen, have been accused of exploiting water resources to consolidate power. For example, they have imposed taxes on water tankers and diverted water to areas under their control, exacerbating shortages in other regions. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, has struggled to provide basic services, including water and sanitation. The result is a humanitarian catastrophe, with millions facing food and water insecurity, and outbreaks of waterborne diseases like cholera becoming increasingly common.
In 2017 and 2019, Yemen accounted for 84% and 93% of all cholera cases worldwide, respectively. The lack of clean water and proper sanitation has made the country a breeding ground for disease, with over half a million people affected by cholera in 2024 alone. The situation is further complicated by the Houthis’ attacks on Red Sea shipping, which have isolated Yemen from international markets and hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid.
The role of donors
International donors have poured billions into Yemen, but their efforts have often been fragmented and poorly coordinated. A unified approach, focusing on capacity building and sustainable water management, is essential to prevent the Sana’a Basin from collapsing entirely. However, political instability and the Houthis’ reluctance to cooperate with international actors continue to hinder progress. For example, in 2024, the UN cut back some of its activities in Yemen after the Houthis cracked down on humanitarian workers, accusing them of spying for the United States and Israel.
Iraq: From water abundance to scarcity
Iraq, once home to the fertile lands of Mesopotamia, is now grappling with a severe water crisis that threatens its agricultural sector and social stability. The country’s reliance on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which originate in Türkiye and Iran, has left it vulnerable to upstream diversions and pollution.
The drying of the marshes
The Mesopotamian Marshes, a UNESCO World Heritage site and a vital ecosystem, have been devastated by reduced river flows and increased salinity. Saddam Hussein’s campaign to drain the marshes in the 1990s caused irreversible damage, and efforts to restore them have been hampered by upstream damming and climate change. The marshes, which once supported a unique way of life for the Marsh Arabs, are now a shadow of their former selves. In 2023, salinity levels in the Al Chibayish marsh reached 6,000 parts per million (ppm), double the levels recorded in 2021.
Social and economic impacts
Water scarcity has displaced tens of thousands of farmers and herders, many of whom have migrated to urban centers like Basra in search of work. This has led to overcrowding, unemployment, and social tensions. In Basra, water shortages and pollution sparked widespread protests in 2018, highlighting the government’s failure to provide basic services. The situation is further complicated by corruption and a lack of coordination between central and local authorities.
For example, the Great Basra Water Project, funded by a $3 billion Japanese loan, has faced numerous delays due to tribal conflicts and political interference. Despite these challenges, the project has made some progress, with a desalination plant in Abu Al Khaseeb now operational and supplying 72,000 cubic meters of water per day. However, much more needs to be done to address the systemic issues plaguing Iraq’s water sector.
Oil and water don’t mix—but they should
Iraq’s oil wealth provides an opportunity to invest in water infrastructure, but political will is lacking. Desalination plants and wastewater treatment facilities could alleviate some of the pressure, but these projects require significant investment and technical expertise. Transboundary negotiations with Türkiye and Iran are also essential to secure a fair share of the Tigris and Euphrates waters. In 2023, Iraq became the first Arab country to sign the UN Water Convention, a step toward improving its negotiating position on transboundary water issues.
Jordan: A downstream country in a parched region
Jordan is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world, with renewable water resources of just 61 cubic meters per capita annually—far below the threshold for absolute water scarcity. The country’s reliance on transboundary water sources, combined with a growing population and influx of refugees, has pushed its water system to the brink.
Transboundary challenges
Jordan’s water security is heavily dependent on the Yarmouk River, which flows from Syria, and the Disi aquifer, which it shares with Saudi Arabia. However, upstream diversions and over-extraction have left these sources increasingly unreliable. The 1994 peace treaty with Israel, which allocated water shares from the Jordan River, has also failed to meet Jordan’s expectations, leaving the country dependent on expensive water purchases from its neighbor.
For example, in 2021, Jordan faced a severe water crisis, with Israel initially refusing to sell additional water until U.S. President Joe Biden intervened. Even then, the agreement was only temporary, highlighting the fragility of Jordan’s water security.
Domestic mismanagement
Jordan’s water sector is plagued by inefficiency, corruption, and theft. Non-revenue water—lost through leaks, theft, and inaccurate metering—accounts for 50% of the country’s water supply. Efforts to reform the sector have been hindered by political resistance and a lack of public awareness. The government’s reliance on international donors has also created a mismatch between donor priorities and local needs.
For example, the Highland Water Forum, established in 2010 to improve irrigation efficiency, failed to achieve its goals due to a lack of sustained funding and political support. Similarly, the Water Innovations Technologies (WIT) project, which aimed to promote water-saving technologies, was abandoned once donor funding ended.
Building resilience
Jordan is investing in desalination and wastewater treatment to augment its water supply. The National Water Conveyance project, which aims to transport desalinated water from the Red Sea to population centers in the north, is a step in the right direction. However, the project’s high cost and energy requirements pose significant challenges. In the long term, Jordan must focus on reducing water demand through conservation and efficiency measures, while also addressing the political and social barriers to reform.
Where water shapes wars and peace
The water crisis in the Middle East is not just an environmental issue; it is a threat to regional stability, economic development, and human security. From Syria’s war-torn landscapes to Yemen’s collapsing aquifers, from Iraq’s drying marshes to Jordan’s overstretched resources, the challenges are immense but not insurmountable.
Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach that combines technical solutions with political will and international cooperation. Transboundary water agreements must be updated and enforced, while domestic reforms should focus on reducing waste, improving efficiency, and investing in sustainable infrastructure. The international community, including donors and regional powers, must play a proactive role in supporting these efforts.
The Middle East stands at a crossroads. Without urgent action, the region’s water crisis will deepen, fueling conflict, displacement, and instability. But with cooperation and innovation, there is hope for a more sustainable and secure future. As the CSIS report aptly notes, overcoming the politics of water is not just a necessity—it is an imperative for survival.