The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community provides a comprehensive analysis of the most pressing national security threats facing the United States. Among these, China stands out as the primary long-term strategic challenge. The assessment highlights how the Communist Party of China (CPC) employs economic, military, technological, and political tools to expand its global influence, undermine U.S. interests, and challenge the existing international order.
China’s pursuit of technological supremacy through AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, and biotechnology has significant national security implications, with concerns over espionage and cyber warfare. Military modernization, including nuclear expansion and space-based capabilities, further reinforces Beijing’s aggressive posture. Meanwhile, China’s control over critical supply chains—from rare earth elements to global shipping routes—gives it leverage over the U.S. economy. The CPC’s influence operations, including AI-driven propaganda and economic coercion, seek to reshape global perceptions and erode democratic resilience.
The report underscores the need for a robust, coordinated response to counter China’s strategic ambitions. The U.S. Intelligence Community warns that without decisive action, China’s expanding influence will continue to pose a direct challenge to U.S. national security and global stability.
Beijing’s drive for technological supremacy
China employs a whole-of-government approach to dominate critical technology sectors and surpass the United States as a global science and technology superpower. The CPC directs both state and private enterprises to accelerate advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotechnology, leveraging both legal and illicit means to achieve its goals.
- China’s AI ambitions extend beyond economic development to military and intelligence applications, including smart surveillance, mass disinformation, and potential offensive cyber operations.
- The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) likely aims to deploy large language models (LLMs) for information warfare, generating deceptive content and manipulating online discourse.
- China leads globally in semiconductor production for legacy chips (28nm and above), positioning itself to dominate industries ranging from consumer electronics to defense applications.
- PRC entities account for 80% of U.S. economic espionage cases, targeting intellectual property to bypass technological hurdles.
- China’s biotechnology sector, valued at $3.3 trillion, is rapidly expanding through aggressive collection of genetic and health data worldwide.
China’s expanding military capabilities
China’s military modernization, nuclear expansion, and space-based assets pose a direct and escalating threat to the United States. The PLA’s strategy emphasizes both conventional and asymmetric capabilities, including counterspace operations and weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
- China is modernizing its nuclear forces, enhancing delivery systems, and developing new strategic doctrines to challenge U.S. deterrence.
- Beijing has likely developed capabilities relevant to chemical and biological warfare (CBW), increasing potential risks to U.S. forces and allies.
- The PLA integrates counterspace weapons, including electronic warfare (EW) systems, directed energy weapons (DEWs), and anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, to degrade U.S. space superiority.
- China’s Beidou satellite constellation rivals the U.S. GPS system, enhancing PLA operational capabilities and providing strategic leverage.
- The CCP’s lunar ambitions include establishing a Moon base by 2035, reinforcing China’s space dominance and securing extraterrestrial resources.
Economic leverage and global supply chain control
China’s economic strategy seeks to erode U.S. competitiveness and impose dependencies through targeted industrial policies and trade coercion. Beijing’s control over critical materials, global shipping routes, and infrastructure projects provides it with tools for economic warfare.
- China’s industrial overcapacity enables a flood of subsidized exports, undermining foreign competitors in key sectors such as steel and manufacturing.
- Beijing employs trade restrictions and sanctions against nations adopting policies unfavorable to China, reinforcing economic coercion as a state tool.
- The PRC dominates global mining and refining of rare earth elements, restricting exports of key minerals, such as gallium and germanium, in response to U.S. semiconductor sanctions.
- China is expanding its presence in Arctic resource extraction, leveraging economic partnerships with Russia and Greenland to secure energy and mineral assets.
- The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to entrench Chinese economic influence, often through debt dependency and infrastructure control.
Biosecurity concerns and pandemic response
China’s approach to biosecurity presents strategic risks, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CCP’s suppression of early outbreak information and refusal to cooperate with global investigations highlight the vulnerabilities of international health security.
- The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) assesses that a research-related incident is the most likely origin of COVID-19, contradicting China’s claims of a natural spillover.
- China’s dominance in pharmaceutical and medical supply chains increases risks of strategic leverage over global health responses.
- The PRC’s aggressive collection of global genetic data positions it to lead in precision medicine and agricultural biotechnology, potentially at the expense of Western security and ethics standards.
- Beijing’s “vaccine diplomacy” during the pandemic sought to enhance geopolitical influence, supplying vaccines to 83 countries in exchange for strategic concessions.
China’s malign influence operations
The CPC’s global influence campaigns seek to undermine U.S. leadership, suppress dissent, and manipulate public discourse. Beijing deploys AI-driven disinformation networks and covert influence operations to weaken democratic institutions and shape global narratives.
- China employs AI-generated news anchors and fake social media personas to disseminate propaganda and exploit societal divisions.
- PRC-backed actors target U.S. domestic policies, using disinformation on issues such as immigration and drug policy to amplify discord.
- The CPC suppresses criticism and silences opposition through coercion, censorship, and economic pressure, both domestically and internationally.
- Chinese state-linked entities seek to influence academic institutions, think tanks, and corporate leaders to shape policy debates in Beijing’s favor.
Key takeaways
- Technology dominance: China’s advancements in AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology challenge U.S. leadership and national security.
- Military expansion: The PLA’s nuclear buildup, space capabilities, and counterspace operations threaten U.S. strategic superiority.
- Economic warfare: Beijing’s control over critical supply chains and trade leverage poses risks to U.S. economic stability.
- Biosecurity risks: China’s suppression of pandemic-related information and genetic data collection present global health security concerns.
- Malign influence: The CPC’s disinformation and covert operations aim to erode U.S. credibility and influence worldwide.
China’s strategic ambitions and coercive tactics underscore its role as the primary geopolitical challenger to the United States. Addressing these threats requires a coordinated and decisive response across all domains of national security.