Limited vessel supply — not booming cargo demand — continues to define the freight market heading into the second half of July. The dry bulk market closed the first week of July with a clear geographical divide. While the Atlantic basin continues to generate healthy earnings across both Ultramax and Handysize sectors, the Pacific has entered a more cautious phase as vessel supply gradually rebuilds and cargo enquiry struggles to maintain the momentum seen earlier in the summer.
Importantly, the market’s resilience is not being driven by an explosion in cargo demand. Instead, the defining feature remains disciplined vessel availability. Across most Atlantic regions, prompt tonnage is simply too limited to allow charterers to regain meaningful negotiating power. That supply-side support continues to underpin freight levels even as fixing volumes become more measured.
South Atlantic remains the market’s powerhouse
The South Atlantic once again stood out as one of the strongest-performing regions worldwide.
Ultramax owners continued to benefit from a notably short prompt tonnage list, allowing freight levels to remain firm across virtually every major trading route.
The week began with exceptionally active fixing, covering almost every trading direction. East Coast South America and North Brazil maintained healthy returns, while West Africa strengthened further, particularly on longer-haul employment. Atlantic destinations continue to outperform Far East business, although sentiment towards eastbound cargoes has remained broadly stable rather than improving.
What continues to support the market is not exceptional cargo demand, but the scarcity of available ships. Until vessel availability increases materially, owners are expected to retain the upper hand.
The Handysize market initially followed a similar pattern, opening the week in relatively balanced conditions after several prompt vessels had been absorbed. As the week progressed, however, sentiment softened. Additional tonnage entered the market while the anticipated surge in second-half July cargoes failed to appear.
Although fixture activity improved compared with recent weeks, most business concluded at slightly lower levels. Owners became increasingly willing to adjust expectations, while charterers grew more confident as vessel availability expanded. The widening freight spread on West Coast South America business became one of the earliest indicators that a mild correction had begun.
Even so, the market remains fundamentally healthy. Activity is satisfactory, but the balance has shifted modestly in favour of charterers after several exceptionally strong weeks.
U.S. Gulf continues to deliver premium returns
The U.S. Gulf remains one of the brightest spots in the global market.
Steady exports of petcoke and grain ensured another active week for Ultramax vessels, with both Transatlantic and Fronthaul routes attracting healthy enquiry. Clean Fronthaul business consistently achieved freight in the low USD 30,000s per day, while Transatlantic voyages also maintained firm returns.
Perhaps the most important factor, however, was what failed to happen.
Very few fresh vessels entered the market. Prompt tonnage remained unusually tight throughout the week, allowing owners to preserve their negotiating strength despite a broadly stable cargo programme.
The Handysize sector was quieter. Fixture volumes remained modest and Transatlantic demand continued to disappoint, although freight levels broadly held their ground. Without a stronger export programme, however, significant upside appears limited for the time being.
West Coast South America begins to rebalance
West Coast South America continues to generate attractive earnings, although subtle changes beneath the surface suggest the market may be entering a more balanced phase.
Ultramax vessels continue benefiting from robust concentrate exports and favourable bunker economics, with earnings generally ranging in the low-to-mid USD 20,000s per day.
Yet owners’ optimism, fuelled largely by the exceptional performance of the U.S. Gulf, is encountering geographical reality.
The inability to ballast efficiently through the Panama Canal means stronger Atlantic earnings cannot simply spill into Pacific markets. Charterers are well aware of this limitation and have responded by delaying forward fixing, expecting additional mid-July tonnage to soften the market.
That strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Freight has eased gradually from around USD 24,000 per day, while the premium enjoyed by larger 63,000 dwt vessels over 58,000 dwt units has widened noticeably.
The Handysize market paints a similar picture. Owners continue to target approximately USD 20,000 per day for fronthaul business from Callao, but actual fixtures are being concluded closer to USD 17,000. Unless demand strengthens materially, market reality is likely to prevail over owner expectations.
Meanwhile, Panama Canal transit restrictions continue to shape regional trading patterns. Auction premiums have eased somewhat but remain substantial at between USD 350,000 and USD 500,000, ensuring the canal continues to influence voyage calculations across both oceans.
Europe searches for fresh momentum
Northern Europe experienced a relatively subdued week.
For Ultramax vessels, much of the traditional Baltic demand had already been covered before the week commenced, leaving limited fresh enquiry centred primarily on Atlantic Round employment. Scrap cargoes reportedly fixed below previous indications, hinting at a gradual easing in freight.
Yet vessel supply remains relatively disciplined. A modest increase in cargo demand could quickly restore balance.
The Handysize market proved more challenging. Cargo volumes failed to keep pace with increasing prompt vessel availability, forcing owners into more aggressive competition for employment. Charterers now enjoy greater negotiating leverage, and unless fresh cargoes emerge, softer conditions are likely to persist in the short term.
Black Sea grain breathes new life into the Mediterranean
While much of Europe slowed, the Black Sea offered renewed optimism for Ultramax vessels.
The beginning of the Russian grain export season has injected fresh confidence into regional markets. Loading activity has accelerated across the principal export terminals, and owners have already become noticeably more selective regarding destinations.
Many market participants now expect further strengthening through late July and into August as grain exports gather pace and available vessel supply tightens.
Elsewhere across the Mediterranean, industrial cargoes continued generating steady enquiry, while clinker shipments towards West Africa added further support.
The Handysize market remains more complicated. Cargo availability has improved, but increasing spot tonnage has prevented freight from responding accordingly. Western Mediterranean business continues benefiting from North Brazil demand, encouraging owners to ballast westwards, while sizeable differences between charterers’ voyage offers and owners’ expectations continue restricting fertiliser fixtures from Algeria and Morocco.
Even so, after several difficult months, the region is beginning to show unmistakable signs of recovery.
Middle East Gulf navigates operational challenges
Geopolitics remains firmly embedded in commercial decision-making.
Throughout the Middle East Gulf, Ultramax vessels willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz continue commanding clear premiums, reflecting the limited number of owners prepared to accept the operational risks.
Fertiliser cargoes into India and China remained reasonably active, while West Coast India benefited from steady movements of salt and iron ore. East Coast UAE ports continue offering an alternative for cargo interests seeking to avoid the Strait, although severe congestion has reduced much of their competitive advantage.
Further south, South Africa quietly delivered another constructive week. Consistent manganese ore and coal exports tightened prompt Ultramax availability, particularly as relatively few Indian Ocean ballasters competed for employment. Freight levels remained broadly unchanged, but owners enter the new week from an increasingly confident position.
Handysize activity was more subdued, although freight proved surprisingly resilient despite a gradually lengthening vessel list.
Pacific markets lose their earlier momentum
The Pacific market experienced another week of gradual softening for Ultramaxes.
Northern Asia traded broadly flat to marginally weaker as prompt tonnage slowly accumulated. North Pacific enquiry remained present throughout the week, although charterers reduced pricing ideas into the mid-to-high teens per day. Owners gradually adjusted expectations closer to those levels.
Backhaul business continued providing the market’s primary support, although Atlantic cargoes from the U.S. Gulf, West Coast South America and East Coast South America became increasingly difficult to conclude at previous freight levels.
Southern Asia experienced a more noticeable deterioration. Prompt vessel supply continued building while fresh cargo enquiry failed to keep pace. Australian round voyages remained the principal source of employment, while Indonesia–China coal and other regional trades largely remained in the low-to-mid teens per day.
Charterers maintained the negotiating advantage throughout the week, although the correction still appears orderly. Should prompt tonnage clear later this month alongside improving cargo activity, market conditions could stabilise relatively quickly.
Handysize markets also softened.
Trips south that recently generated freight exceeding USD 18,000 per day are now finding fair value closer to USD 17,000. Middle East Gulf business remains subdued despite improved operational confidence, while backhaul employment towards Europe continues trading around USD 18,000 per day plus profit sharing.
In South East Asia and Australia, the earlier rally has clearly lost momentum. Australian grain and alumina cargoes continue to provide employment but remain insufficient to absorb available vessel supply. Australian round voyages for 38,000 dwt vessels have eased into the USD 17,000s per day, while smaller Handysize vessels are currently earning approximately USD 11,500–12,500 per day.
Period activity has softened modestly, with Japanese-built 38,000 dwt loggers now being discussed around USD 17,500–19,000 per day, while 32,000–34,000 dwt units are valued closer to USD 14,500-16,000 per day.
Period market maintains positive tone
The Atlantic period market continued strengthening during the week.
Ultramax period levels moved higher once again, driven primarily by firmer Mediterranean backhaul earnings and the continued resilience of Atlantic spot markets.
The Handysize Atlantic period sector remains equally constructive. Improving backhaul returns, combined with stronger spot earnings from both the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America, continue supporting higher period valuations across the basin.
Outlook: a healthy market, but increasingly regional
As the market enters the second half of July, the overall picture remains constructive.
The Atlantic continues to benefit from disciplined vessel supply, healthy cargo flows and improving grain exports from the Black Sea. South African mineral exports also continue providing valuable support, while developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain an important operational variable.
The Pacific, meanwhile, is undergoing a natural rebalancing following several weeks of exceptionally strong performance. Current weakness reflects increasing vessel availability rather than collapsing cargo demand, suggesting that any correction should remain measured unless supply expands significantly.
For now, the market continues to reward disciplined vessel positioning rather than speculative fixing. Owners with exposure to the Atlantic are expected to outperform, while those trading in the Pacific will need to rely increasingly on careful employment strategies and selective cargo choices.
The coming weeks are therefore expected to produce a freight market that remains fundamentally healthy, albeit one where regional dynamics — not global direction — will increasingly determine earnings.
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This article is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources and reasonable assessments at the time of writing which may change without prior notice, and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor any affiliated parties accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on the content of this article. The analysis is provided strictly for informational and commentary purposes and should not be interpreted as guidance for any commercial or investment decisions. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.