The freight market in the Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Middle East Gulf continues to be influenced by global economic and geopolitical factors. Handysize and Supramax rates in the Mediterranean followed the positive sentiment of the Atlantic Basin, while cargo flow remained stable. In contrast, the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India markets experienced lower demand, leading to rate stagnation and pressure. The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and potential disruptions in the Suez Canal, along with global financial fluctuations, add complexity to future market predictions. This report provides insights into rate movements and the broader implications for international trade.
Med and Black Sea
For Handies, the Mediterranean was influenced by the wider positive sentiment of the Atlantic Basin while the cargo flow was also stable. Larger vessel rates (over 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $8-9.5K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Continent at $8.5-10K/day (delivery to Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $7.5-9K/day (delivery to Canakkale) and to Asia at $13-14.5K/day. An increase in cargo flow will help the market maintain this trend for the following week as there is a balance between supply and demand.
For Supramaxes, the Mediterranean was helped by improved demand but also the movement of vessels to the other side of the Atlantic Basin where they could find higher rates. However, supplied capacity remained at high levels but rates followed the upward trends of the Atlantic Basin.
For example, it is reported that an SMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $16.5-18K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $8-9.5K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 9.5-11 K/day (outside war zones). A development in demand is needed for the market to maintain this trend for the following week.
Middle East Gulf and India
For Handies, in the Middle East Gulf and W. C. India the market was dull in the West C. India nd the Gulf of the Middle East. However, rates remained at the same levels. From the West C. India to China trips charterers on larger vessels closed at $12-13.5K/day. Expect the market to continue this trend for next week.
For Supramaxes, in the Middle East Gulf and West C. India, the market was calm so the rates fell while many vessels’ owners tried to find some work in order to move to the Atlantic. SMX rates for Far East trips ranged from $14.5-16K/day (from Middle East’s Gulf (MEG) – West C. India (WCI)), for short-haul trips between Middle East’s Gulf – West C. India at $13-14.5 K/day and trips to the Atlantic Basin at $ 6.5-8 K/day. Expect the market to remain under pressure for next week.
Generally speaking, attempting to predict the market in the long run becoming more complicating. The impact of the war in the Middle East and the situation in the Red Sea, has affected the fluctuations of world prices. There is a fear that the scale of the war in the Middle East will grow larger and more countries will become involved. In such a case, all ships will be affected, and the Suez Canal will most likely be interrupted.
Furthermore, the U.S. financial system is being challenged by emerging countries, led by China. The U.S. is striving to maintain its financial advantages and the international payment currency system. If the U.S. dollar fluctuates significantly, we may witness international turmoil. It is presumed that the U.S. will do everything possible to maintain its advantages.
Believe the United States cannot accept losing its position as the world’s foremost power. Estimate that if any country gains greater influence on the international stage than the United States, the latter will defend its top position.
Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice.