If the dry bulk market were a party, 2025 would be the moment someone cut the music. In the first half of the year, only 76 newbuilding contracts were recorded—a catastrophic drop from 355 orders in the same period of 2024. Greek owners, long the dominant presence in this space, have all but vanished from the orderbooks, placing just three newbuilding orders, compared to 30 the previous year.
The reasons are depressingly clear. The Baltic Dry Index remains stuck near multi-year lows, reflecting poor demand from China and sluggish appetite for critical cargoes like iron ore and coal. As prices for newbuildings remain elevated, owners are choosing the most rational response available to them: inaction. With more than 1,600 bulk carriers expected to hit the water between 2024 and 2027, concerns of oversupply are very much alive—unlike the market’s pricing power.
Tankers: A theatre of caution
If dry bulk is cautious, the tanker sector is positively neurotic. Global tanker newbuilding orders in H1 2025 totalled just 102, a staggering 80% drop from the 486 units ordered in the same period last year. Greek buyers followed suit, cutting their orders from 100 to 32.
This isn’t simply a reflection of soft market conditions. Yes, product tanker earnings in the Pacific have underperformed. But the market is also navigating stormier waters: Red Sea disruptions, geopolitical volatility involving Iran and Ukraine, and a regulatory landscape so opaque it could give a London fog a run for its money.
Without consensus on fuel types or propulsion technologies, many owners prefer to sit tight rather than gamble on ships that may soon be technologically obsolete. And with political risk affecting trade routes and insurance, this restraint feels less like hesitancy and more like basic self-preservation.
Gas: A pause, not a retreat
In the gas carrier segment, the picture is less dire—but no less revealing. Just 44 newbuilding orders were recorded globally in H1 2025, down from 158 a year earlier. Greek shipowners placed a modest five.
Here, the slowdown looks more like digestion than fear. Following the 2023–24 LNG ordering spree—triggered by Europe’s pivot away from Russian gas—many owners are simply absorbing the shock of their recent commitments. There’s also the minor issue of time: LNG shipyards are now fully booked into 2028 and beyond. Planning a speculative newbuilding under these conditions is like ordering a bespoke suit for a dinner that may never happen.
To complicate matters, long-term charter coverage has dried up. The equation is simple: no charter, no justification. And certainly no queueing for yards already bursting at the seams.
Containers: Apparently nobody got the memo
And then, the container sector. While everyone else plays it safe, container owners have sprinted in the opposite direction. Newbuilding orders climbed to 201 units in H1 2025, up from 170 in the same period last year. Greek participation doubled.
Why the defiance? In a word: regulation. Owners are racing to future-proof their fleets with dual-fuel, eco-designed vessels—preferably delivered before the next layer of climate legislation kicks in. There’s also a practical angle: secondhand tonnage is increasingly scarce, especially for efficient ships. With feeder and midsize newbuilding slots still available, owners see a rare window of opportunity.
It may not be entirely logical, but then again, shipping has never been accused of excessive consistency.
Prices up, sentiment down
What unites all segments except containers is a grim trinity: high newbuilding prices, regulatory ambiguity, and disappointing freight returns. In short, capital expenditure has lost its allure. With newbuilding prices still hovering near historical highs and a foggy policy outlook on fuels, owners would need a strong stomach—and a weak accountant—to commit aggressively in this environment.
Instead, they seem to prefer the secondhand market, where deals are less speculative and delivery is immediate. Recent activity in the dry bulk sector tells the story: Capesize units like the “Asian Blossom” (181K/2010 Imabari) fetched USD 28.5 million on a 2-Year Bareboat Hire Purchase basis, while “Mount K2” (176K/2011 Mitsui) sold to Chinese buyers for USD 26.5 million.
Panamaxes and Kamsarmaxes also saw movement. The “Azalea Wave” (95K/2013 Koyo) sold for USD 17.5 million, and the “Avicl Artemis” (82K/2019 Jiangsu Jinling) fetched low USD 24 millions. Meanwhile, Supramax deals ranged from USD 17.7 million for a 2014-built vessel to as high as USD 28.5 million for more modern units. Even vintage Panamaxes and Handysizes changed hands, proving there’s still appetite for ships—just not new ones.
Tanker sales: Fewer, but firm
Tanker secondhand transactions were fewer but notable. The Aframax “Ise Princess” (105K/2009 Sumitomo) changed hands for USD 32.5 million, a sign that older tonnage still commands value in the right condition. In the MR2 space, the “Valrossa” (50K/2008 SPP) sold for USD 17 million, while the Japanese-built “San Fernando” (48K/2005 Minaminippon) went for USD 12 million.
These are not fire sales. They are carefully selected entries, where price, age, and current market fundamentals align—proof that strategic thinking hasn’t vanished, just relocated.
Silence is a strategy too
So far in 2025, the newbuilding market tells a story of collective caution. Owners are no longer throwing money at steel and praying for returns. They’re watching, weighing, and—in most sectors—waiting. Containers may be marching to their own regulatory drumbeat, but elsewhere, the silence is telling.
And frankly, after two years of euphoric ordering, perhaps some silence is overdue.