The maritime industry’s performance in the first six months of 2025 has been rather like watching a particularly British weather forecast unfold—predictably unpredictable, with occasional bursts of sunshine amid persistent drizzle. While industry pundits spent the early months of the year wringing their hands over potential catastrophe, the reality has proven more nuanced, though hardly reassuring for those banking on a straightforward recovery.
Container freight rates have emerged as the unlikely hero of this maritime drama, posting gains that would make even the most seasoned analyst raise an eyebrow. The sector recorded a robust 6.1% growth in Q1 2025, maintaining momentum through the second quarter despite macroeconomic headwinds that would typically send shippers scurrying for cover. This performance stands in stark contrast to the doom-laden predictions that dominated industry conferences just months earlier.
The container conundrum
The container shipping sector’s resilience has been nothing short of remarkable, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. Maersk’s latest forecasts suggest global container demand could range anywhere from -1% to 4% for the full year—a spread wide enough to drive a fully laden ULCV through, but indicative of the uncertainty that continues to plague the industry.
What makes this performance particularly intriguing is the role of advance ordering by manufacturers ahead of tariff announcements. Unlike the retail sector, which has shown more restraint, manufacturers have been stockpiling goods with the enthusiasm of Victorian-era explorers preparing for an Arctic expedition. This behaviour has provided crucial support to freight rates, even as underlying demand patterns remain somewhat anaemic.
The geographical dynamics tell an equally compelling story. European imports from Far East Asia now constitute 51% of total European imports in 2024, up from 49% in 2019—a trend that flies in the face of political rhetoric about reducing dependency on Chinese manufacturing. Meanwhile, American importers have been more successful in their decoupling efforts, with many large US customers achieving single-digit China dependency in certain sectors, particularly apparel and fashion.
Dry bulk’s dampened spirits
If container shipping has been the industry’s unexpected darling, dry bulk has played the role of the perpetually disappointed relative at a family gathering. Bulkcarrier earnings tumbled 31% year-on-year in the first half, settling at $10,897 per day—a figure that would have been considered respectable in previous cycles but feels rather modest given current operational costs.
The sector’s struggles reflect broader challenges in global trade volumes, which contracted by an estimated 0.4% year-on-year in the first half. This contraction, while modest, represents a significant headwind for an industry that has grown accustomed to steady, if unspectacular, growth. The full-year projection of marginal 0.1% growth to 12.7 billion tonnes suggests that 2025 will be remembered as a year of treading water rather than making waves.
Chinese demand patterns have added another layer of complexity to the dry bulk narrative. While the country’s export boom continues—with total exports in 2024 running 25% higher than pre-pandemic levels—the domestic appetite for raw materials has shown signs of moderation. This has created an interesting paradox where China simultaneously drives global trade growth while constraining demand for the very commodities that fuel its export machine.
Tanker troubles and energy dynamics
The tanker sector has endured its own set of challenges, with freight rates remaining stubbornly weak throughout the first half. This weakness reflects not just oversupply issues but also changing energy consumption patterns and the ongoing transition towards alternative fuels. The sector’s struggles have been compounded by geopolitical tensions in key shipping lanes, which have created operational complexities without delivering the rate premiums that might have offset these challenges.
LPG carriers have bucked the trend somewhat, posting strong freight rates with a 17% increase compared to 2024 levels. This performance reflects tight supply-demand fundamentals and the sector’s relative insulation from broader trade tensions. LNG carriers, conversely, have faced pressure from new tonnage deliveries, highlighting the sector’s sensitivity to capacity additions.
The tariff tango
Perhaps no factor has influenced maritime markets more significantly than the evolving tariff landscape between the United States and its trading partners. The effective average tariff rate on U.S. imports currently sits at approximately 21%—a figure that peaked at 54% shortly after the April 2nd announcements before settling at current levels as negotiations progressed.
These tariffs have created fascinating distortions in traditional trade patterns. Companies are paying an estimated 5-6% more in duties than necessary due to inadequate customs planning—a figure that represents billions in unnecessary costs across the global economy. The World Trade Organisation estimates that about 20% of border delays stem from insufficient customs preparation, a statistic that takes on new significance when freight rates are already under pressure.
The automotive sector provides a particularly illuminating case study. With goods and parts crossing borders five to six times during the manufacturing process, the cumulative impact of tariffs becomes exponentially more significant. This has forced manufacturers to reconsider not just their sourcing strategies but their entire operational footprints—decisions that will influence freight rates for years to come.
Regional realities
The regional picture reveals significant variations in market performance and outlook. In South Asia, monsoon-related disruptions at the Port of Colombo have created capacity constraints that have supported local freight rates, even as broader market conditions remain challenging. Heavy rainfall and strong winds have disrupted terminal operations, creating the kind of temporary supply-demand imbalances that can provide brief respites from broader market pressures.
The Middle East has seen activation of business continuity protocols following geopolitical escalations that began on June 12th. While these protocols have ensured service continuity, they have also added operational costs that further pressure already thin margins. The region’s strategic importance as a transit hub means that any disruption here reverberates throughout global supply chains.
Africa presents a more optimistic picture, with import volumes in West Africa showing continued upward trends. This growth reflects ongoing infrastructure investment and rising consumer demand, providing one of the few bright spots in an otherwise challenging global landscape. However, the region’s relatively small scale means that this growth, while welcome, cannot offset weakness in larger markets.
Technology and transformation
The industry’s response to current challenges has accelerated adoption of digital tools and AI-powered solutions. Companies are increasingly using predictive analytics to optimise routing and capacity utilisation, while blockchain technology is beginning to streamline customs processes. These technological advances offer hope for improved efficiency, though their impact on freight rates remains largely theoretical at this stage.
The push towards decarbonisation continues to influence investment decisions and operational strategies. New regulations, including Canada’s CARM financial security mandates, are raising compliance costs across the industry. Morgan Stanley estimates that ESG-related expenses could add 2–5% to logistics costs, favouring firms with the scale to absorb these burdens while potentially squeezing smaller operators.
Course correction or false dawn? The outlook for H2 2025
The second half of 2025 presents a complex set of variables that will determine whether current trends continue or reverse. Macroeconomic indicators are showing signs of stabilisation, with the political climate appearing to normalise somewhat. This has created a more encouraging outlook for H2 2025, though significant uncertainties remain.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% reflects broader concerns about economic momentum. Consumer sentiment in the US has deteriorated in recent months, aligning with a 1.8% drop in durable goods demand in May. These indicators suggest that any recovery in freight rates will likely be gradual rather than dramatic.
Diesel prices have remained relatively stable at $3.60 per gallon, providing some relief from cost pressures. However, US inflation running at 3.2% in 2025 continues to erode purchasing power and complicate demand forecasting. The interplay between these factors will largely determine whether the modest optimism surrounding H2 2025 proves justified.
Sailing into uncharted waters: Strategy,survival, and the stakes ahead
The industry’s bifurcation between winners and losers seems likely to continue, with companies leveraging geopolitical realignments and technological advantages pulling away from those struggling with oversupply and compliance costs. This divergence suggests that broad market averages may become less meaningful as individual company performance becomes increasingly dependent on strategic positioning and operational excellence.
For investors and industry participants, the path forward requires careful attention to sub-sector dynamics and balance sheet strength. The days of rising tides lifting all boats appear firmly in the past, replaced by a more discriminating market that rewards agility, efficiency, and strategic foresight while punishing complacency and poor positioning.
As the maritime market navigates a fog of economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction, clarity remains elusive. Freight rates in the second half of 2025 will hinge less on historical precedent and more on the industry’s agility in responding to shifting trade dynamics, regulatory pressures, and technological disruption. Success will belong to those who can pivot swiftly—while the rest risk drifting in increasingly unforgiving waters.
Sources
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- Maersk. Global Market Update – Summer 2025. Maersk Newsroom, July 2, 2025. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2025/07/02/maersk-global-market-update-summer
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