The IEA counted 86 million more barrels afloat in October, even as stocks ashore fell. On 8 November, the Ever Eon crossed Suez. Oil can turn up in an inventory report before it turns up at a refinery. A liner can take a shortcut and still find that the next booking pays less.
For shipping markets in the week of 7–13 November 2026, the question was where those changes might free up ships. A shorter rotation can release vessel time. More loadings can absorb it. Meanwhile, buyers were committing capital to ships that would not earn for them until delivery.
Tankers: the barrels still at sea
The IEA’s November report put October’s increase in observed oil stocks at 52 million barrels. Oil on water rose by 86 million barrels, while stocks ashore kept falling. Gulf oil exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels a day, still 26% below pre-war levels. Security risks persisted. The 12 November JMIC bulletin listed four tanker incidents in its latest reporting period: two in the Strait of Hormuz and two elsewhere in the Gulf.
The Baltic’s 13 November tanker report put Middle East Gulf–China (TD3C) at $1,078,714/day in round-trip time-charter equivalent (TCE) earnings. That was down from $1,303,616 on 6 November. The modelled West Africa–China return (TD15) also fell, to $267,748/day. In Kpler’s delivered-cost comparison, Nigerian Agbami was about $4/barrel cheaper than Abu Dhabi’s Murban at Ningbo. Lower freight can make a longer voyage viable for the refiner while cutting the owner’s daily earnings.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Watch discharges and the time ships take to return to the spot market. More oil at sea can reflect more loadings alone; it does not establish a rise in floating storage or slower voyages.
Gas: Qatar loses a contract
On 10 November, Poland’s ORLEN gave notice to terminate one of its two long-term LNG contracts with QatarEnergy. It cited continuing force majeure and missed deliveries. The oil-linked contract covered 1 million tonnes a year and was due to run until 2034. It remains in force for 60 days after notice. ORLEN continues its second, gas-linked agreement.
Separately, Venture Global began commercial operations at Plaquemines Phase 1 on 31 October. The first commercial cargo, for Shell, departed on 1 November. By 10 November, Venture Global had loaded six cargoes for long-term customers. ORLEN had flagged forthcoming deliveries from the Louisiana terminal under its existing contract.
The Baltic’s gas report put U.S. Gulf–Continent LNG hire at $29,900/day, down from $35,300 on 6 November. Australia–Japan closed at $54,600/day for a second Friday. The Baltic cited ample ship availability in the Atlantic. In LPG, narrower trading margins and more available ships put pressure on freight. Houston–Chiba closed at $310.86/tonne.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: The effect on shipping markets depends on where ORLEN sources and delivers its next cargoes. The end of one supply contract does not establish which voyages will replace it, or whether they will need additional spot ships.
Containers: a shorter route meets a softer market
In #56, we covered the planned Gemini ME1 return. The Suez Canal Authority confirmed that Evergreen’s 16,556 TEU Ever Eon transited on 8 November on Ocean Alliance’s NEU7 service. In its 12 November brief, Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 426 containership transits for October as a whole, up from 315 in September. Individual services are using the canal again; the scale of any wider return remains open.
Descartes recorded a record 2.67 million TEU of U.S. imports in October, up 16% year on year. Meanwhile, Drewry’s 12 November assessment put the World Container Index at $4,305 per 40ft container, down 2% from $4,389. Its 13 November tracker listed 52 expected cancellations out of 716 planned sailings across the major east–west trades. For liner shipping markets, the import record reflects past bookings. Spot rates show what the next box can earn.
| Route | Dollars per 40ft container | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai–New York | $9,020 | −3% |
| Shanghai–Los Angeles | $7,416 | −2% |
| Shanghai–Rotterdam | $3,504 | −3% |
| Shanghai–Genoa | $4,168 | Broadly unchanged |
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: If more services return to Suez, carriers can complete rotations with fewer ship-days. How much space shippers gain depends on whether carriers redeploy those vessels or cut departures to support rates.
Dry bulk: the Pacific takes the lead
The Baltic’s Week 46 report put the BCI 182 5TC (C5TC) at $42,798/day. This is the five-route time-charter average for a 182,000 dwt Capesize. The benchmark touched $43,860 before closing 8.6% above the 6 November level of $39,395/day. Last week the North Atlantic provided the stronger support. This time Australian miners led the rise. West Australia–China C5 business reached about $15.20/tonne on Thursday before easing to $14.50–14.60. Brazil–China C3 fixtures slipped from around $36 to $35/tonne.
Panamax owners faced a different market. Atlantic demand supported rates, while more ships competed for cargo in the Pacific.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Follow the next round of Australian ore bookings and the ships arriving to compete for them. A rising Capesize average can reward a well-positioned ship without making a long ballast voyage worthwhile.
Sale and purchase: the delivery date has a price
Broker reports and company releases this week covered three second-hand ships and one related-party newbuilding acquisition. The table separates prices reported by Intermodal and Lion from prices disclosed by the companies. The report date can come well after an agreement. None of the four entries represents a completed transfer.
| Vessel | Segment, capacity and build | Price (US$) | Status and terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pyxis Karteria, IMO 9596260 | MR product tanker, 46,652 dwt; 2013 Hyundai Mipo, South Korea | $37m | Pyxis agreement, 12 Nov; unnamed unaffiliated buyer, delivery expected 20 Nov–20 Dec subject to closing, about $10.7m in secured debt to repay |
| Nightsky, IMO 9847243 | Eco Capesize, 2019 Namura, Japan. Deadweight: 183,017 dwt per ClassNK; 180,000 dwt per Seanergy | $73m per Intermodal, 10 Nov; low $70m range per Lion, 13 Nov | Lion identifies Seanergy as buyer and Alcyon Shipping as seller. Seanergy’s 12 Nov release lists a 2019 Japanese Capesize to be renamed Midnightship, without giving an individual price. Its CEO dated the agreement to roughly two months earlier. Deposit paid: 10%; balance due at January 2027 delivery. Lion lists drydocking in October 2027 and special survey in November 2029 |
| Friendship, IMO 9410454 | Capesize, 176,952 dwt; 2009 Namura, Japan | $33m | Seller Seanergy and related buyer United agreed main terms in November. United disclosed them on 12 Nov. The sale needs lender approval and final documents. Early Q1 2027 delivery expected; transfer of the existing charter remains unconfirmed |
| Veni Vidi Vici, reported IMO 1133543 | Eco VLCC with scrubber; 306,000 dwt per vessel data; on sea trials at Hengli, China | $210m | Volare disclosed the agreement on 11 Nov. The seller is an affiliate of its indirect majority shareholder, Trafigura Maritime Logistics. Delivery scheduled for 20 Nov 2026. Volare plans cash and long-term lease financing; completion remains conditional |
Intermodal put a five-year-old MR at $56.0 million in early November, against an October average of $53.2 million. Its eco Capesize equivalent rose from $75.8 million to $77.0 million. Five-year-old Kamsarmax and Ultramax benchmarks stayed at $42 million and $39 million. The Pyxis Karteria’s agreed $37 million price is $17 million above the 2021 purchase price. Pyxis separately expects a $21 million accounting gain and $25.9 million in net cash proceeds. None of those figures measures the net profit from owning the vessel.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: In shipping markets with volatile spot rates, prompt delivery lets a buyer earn sooner. The useful comparison is the daily hire each ship needs to cover finance, operating costs and its next survey.
Fuels: can the port deliver?
The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore opened applications on 12 November for licences to operate up to two floating LNG storage units. A qualifying unit must have at least 130,000 m³ of storage capacity. Operators must make some capacity available to other LNG bunker suppliers and disclose proposed maximum reloading fees to the authority. The authority has yet to award the licences.
Conventional fuels offer a more immediate test. ENGINE’s 13 November bunker update put Singapore lead times at 10–17 days across HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO. In a separate update, it put average residual fuel oil stocks 4% higher in November to date than in October, citing Enterprise Singapore. A larger inventory does not tell a ship when a supplier can get the right fuel alongside.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: A cheaper bunker quote can lose its advantage if a ship has to wait or divert. For LNG, the amount of storage open to other suppliers and the reload fee will determine how much room they have to compete.
Panama: a slot and a deeper draft
The Panama Canal Authority’s 9 November advisory raised Super-category booking slots from 18 to 19 a day. That brought the daily total to 34 for transit dates from 12 November. The advisory also raised the maximum Neopanamax draft to 50 feet, or 15.24 metres.
Separately, the authority’s October operations report, Advisory A-41-2026, counted 1,029 actual oceangoing transits, averaging 33.19 a day.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: The extra slot gives operators another chance to book a date. The deeper draft can improve payload for a suitable ship. The two gains need to be priced separately against tolls and waiting time.
GeoTrends view: when does the ship come free?
Watch whether Suez passages repeat, whether Gulf oil discharges catch up with loadings and where ORLEN’s next LNG cargoes come from. Each gives shipping markets a better measure of vessel demand than the announcement alone.
The oil balance can improve before the barrels come ashore. A shorter route can return a vessel to the market sooner. A deposit ties up capital at once. The ship can start earning for its buyer only on delivery.