The period of 29 June–4 July 2026 did not deliver a resolution to the Hormuz standoff. It delivered a reframing. Iran’s ambassador in Beijing confirmed that Tehran will impose service fees on transiting vessels — moving the dispute from the military domain into the commercial one. The same week, France and the UK agreed with Oman to secure its territorial waters and declared readiness to deploy the Multinational Military Mission, with Paris already sending minehunters, frigates, and a patrol aircraft. Iran and Oman are building a new framework for the strait. The U.S. and its European allies are building a naval presence around it. The same waterway, two entirely different visions of who governs it.
Every shipping segment traded a different version of reality. The BDI recovered 7.6% as Capes bounced back on Pacific cargo activity, while the VLCC correction deepened — TD3C now down 52% from its crisis peak as Chinese crude imports run 23% below year-ago levels. Container rates posted a second consecutive period of gains, reaching levels last seen during the Red Sea crisis. Bunker prices edged lower as HSFO continued normalising faster than VLSFO, keeping the scrubber spread stubbornly wide. And Dynacom placed a $1.47 billion order for 12 scrubber-fitted VLCCs — in a period when spot VLCC earnings were falling.
Hormuz: the weapon shifts from drone to invoice
On Saturday 4 July, Iran made clear what comes after the 60-day window. Speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing, Ambassador Fazli confirmed that Iran was working in “collaboration and cooperation” with Oman on “new arrangements” for the strait, and that Tehran will introduce service fees for transiting vessels — framed as charges for navigation security, vessel monitoring and environmental impact — with “special considerations” for friendly nations. Senior Iranian sources cited by Reuters confirmed the fees would be mandatory once the 60-day toll-free window expires, though the legal basis remains contested — international law generally prohibits fees solely for transit through an international strait, though charges for specific navigation services may be permissible. The United States has opposed any fee arrangement, arguing the strait is an international waterway through which commercial traffic should pass freely. The answer came a day earlier: France and the UK agreed with Oman to secure its territorial waters and declared readiness to deploy the Multinational Military Mission, with Paris already sending minehunters, frigates, and a patrol aircraft.
On the water, the picture stays unsettled: approximately 35 transits per day against a pre-war average of around 110, with eight vessels U-turning on the southern route after an IRGC Navy VHF warning, before a five-vessel convoy threaded the same route the next day. Meanwhile, Brent has retreated to pre-war levels, suggesting the market is already pricing the gap between rhetoric and real risk.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Iran is no longer claiming the right to close the strait — it’s claiming the right to tax it. That’s more dangerous for shipowners, because it isn’t settled by strikes or summits, but by whoever blinks first and pays.
Dry bulk: the index recovers, the market finds its direction
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2,717 on 3 July, up 193 points from the previous Friday’s 2,524 — a 7.6% gain that reversed most of the prior period’s losses. Capes led at +12.6%, Kamsarmaxes followed at +4.4%, while Ultramaxes were essentially flat and Handysize edged down 0.3%. The BCI 5TC gained just over $5,000 to close at $37,181 — driven by the return of major miners in the Pacific, with C5 (West Australia–China) climbing to around $12.30 by week’s end, while C3 (Brazil–China) tested and in some cases exceeded $30.
Panamax and Kamsarmax benefited from tight prompt tonnage in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, with an 82,000-dwt fixing a grains transatlantic round at $22,750 and a 78,000-dwt achieving $28,750 for a U.S. East Coast–India trip. Ultramax was the most regionally fragmented segment: the U.S. Gulf strengthened sharply with transatlantic voyages at $31,500–$33,000/day and Asia trips at $35,500–$37,000, while Southeast Asia remained under pressure from excess open tonnage and weak Indonesian coal activity. Handysize delivered a mixed performance — U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic supportive, Asia softening — with a 40,000-dwt fixing 12 months period at around $16,500.
BDI Daily Performance — Week 27, 2026
| Date | BDI | Capesize Earnings | Panamax Earnings | Supramax Earnings | Handysize Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun | 2,490 | $32,091 | $19,117 | $21,084 | $17,044 |
| 30 Jun | 2,501 | $32,181 | $19,383 | $21,076 | $17,026 |
| 1 Jul | 2,562 | $33,484 | $19,591 | $21,151 | $17,002 |
| 2 Jul | 2,650 | $35,563 | $19,758 | $21,168 | $16,990 |
| 3 Jul | 2,717 | $37,181 | $19,825 | $21,153 | $16,960 |
Weekly Performance Snapshot
| Index | 26 Jun | 3 Jul | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BDI | 2,524 | 2,717 | 🔺 +193 pts (+7.6%) |
| BCI | 3,640 | 4,100 | 🔺 +460 pts (+12.6%) |
| BPI | 2,110 | 2,203 | 🔺 +93 pts (+4.4%) |
| BSI | 1,670 | 1,673 | 🔺 +3 pts (+0.2%) |
| BHSI | 945 | 942 | 🔻 −3 pts (−0.3%) |
Sources: HandyBulk; Baltic Exchange, Week 27; GeoTrends Market Analysis
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Miners back in the Pacific, Ultramaxes congested in Oman, Handysize softening in Asia. One index, three different geopolitical readings. Until Hormuz fully normalises, the Cape rally and the Gulf Ultramax discount will keep telling different versions of the same story.
Tankers: the correction deepens, China stays away, scrubbers win
Dirty: the correction finds its floor — or doesn’t
The TD3C correction accelerated through the period — but the direction of physical activity tells a more optimistic story than the rate screen. The 270,000mt Middle East Gulf–China route eased a further point to WS293.89, a daily round-trip TCE of approximately $286,500 — down from $313,000 a period ago and more than 52% below the 52-week high. Yet over a dozen ships were reported on subjects for loading inside the Gulf, and Vortexa data shows outbound laden VLCCs averaging 2.8 transits per day from 1–5 July — up from 0.9 in May and 0.6 in March. Inbound ballast VLCCs are rising faster still, at 3.6 per day over the same window versus 0.7 in May, a sign that owners are positioning for the MEG trade with a degree of optimism the rate screen has not yet priced. Okeanis Eco Tankers Chief Executive Aristidis Alafouzos noted on Monday that “this is the first time in months that TD3 is starting to reflect real physical activity rather than just paper pricing.” Sparta Commodities, however, flagged 70 open VLCCs in the MEG against a 54-ship average — a lengthening position list that keeps near-term downward pressure intact.
The Atlantic VLCC basin improved markedly. TD15 (West Africa–China) was assessed at $127,708/day on Monday — up from $90,000–$100,000 before the peace deal — while TD22 (U.S. Gulf–China) stood at $115,749/day, up from around $100,000 pre-agreement. The Gulf of Oman shuttle service is also firming: the GOO–China TCE for VLCCs was assessed at $145,477/day on Monday, up 7% versus 1 July, as the pickup in MEG activity thinned the GOO position list and owners willing to transit the strait commanded a growing premium. The shuttle trade — wherein VLCCs load inside the MEG, transit to the GOO, discharge via STS, then return to reload — continues to be operated by at least two dozen vessels controlled by four entities: ADNOC, Kuwait Petroleum, Sinokor, and vessels owned by George Prokopiou. Suezmax outperformed across the board: the Baltic suezmax index reached $151,026/day on Monday, up from $90,000–$100,000 before the peace deal, while TD6 (CPC–Augusta) gained around 10 points to WS284, a TCE of $188,300. Aframax was the notable exception — indexes remain in line with late-May levels at $30,000–$40,000/day, the segment that the peace deal has not yet reached.
Clean: west surges, east sinks
The clean market divided sharply along geographic lines. West of Suez surged: TC14 added 90 points to WS237, a Baltic round-trip TCE of $27,307/day — up 180% week-on-week — while TC21 (U.S. Gulf–Caribbean) more than doubled to $1.21 million, a TCE of $49,233/day. The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE jumped from $18,109 to $34,496/day. East of Suez told the opposite story: TC1 dropped 143 points to WS361 and TC5 lost 166 points to WS355 — the Hormuz discount still embedded in every East of Suez clean route.
China: the variable nobody can price
None of that explains China. According to Vortexa data, global seaborne crude and condensate exports bound for China averaged 11 million bpd in the January 2025–February 2026 pre-crisis period, fell to 5.2 million bpd in May, and recovered partially to 6.7 million bpd in June. Global exports for all destinations excluding China averaged 32.7 million bpd in June — up 2% versus the pre-crisis average, confirming that the rest of the world has largely normalised while China remains the outstanding variable. The Doha indirect talks on 1 July ended without resolving the main outstanding issues. Yet BRS struck a more constructive tone, stating that “China’s crude imports will rebound strongly from their second-quarter slump” and that “demand destruction is now seen as less of a threat.” If that view is correct, the second half of 2026 becomes a different market entirely. The scrubber spread is the one metric that benefits from the current impasse: VLSFO averaged $723.50/tonne at the top 20 hubs — down 31% from the March peak but still up 46% versus the pre-war average, while HSFO averaged $574/tonne, down 37% from peak. HSFO has normalised faster — the spread stays wide, and 74% of Capesize newbuilding orders now include scrubber installations, up from 58% a year ago.
Baltic Tanker Assessments — Week Ending 3 July 2026
| Route | Vessel | WS / $ | TCE $/day | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD3C ME Gulf/China | VLCC | WS293.89 | $286,500 | 🔻 −25 pts |
| TD34 Gulf of Oman/China | VLCC | WS155 | n/p | 🔻 −19 pts |
| GOO/China | VLCC | — | $145,477 | 🔺 +7% vs 1 Jul |
| TD15 WAF/China | VLCC | WS148.5 | $127,708 | 🔺 vs pre-deal |
| TD22 USG/China | VLCC | $17.68m | $115,749 | 🔺 vs pre-deal |
| TD20 Nigeria/UKC | Suezmax | WS243.06 | $117,481 | 🔺 +10 pts |
| TD27 Guyana/UKC | Suezmax | WS243 | $119,300 | 🔺 +4 pts |
| TD33 USG/UKC | Suezmax | WS196.39 | n/p | 🔻 −2.5 pts |
| TD6 CPC/Augusta | Suezmax | WS284 | $188,300 | 🔺 +10 pts |
| Baltic Suezmax Index | Suezmax | — | $151,026 | 🔺 vs $90–100k pre-deal |
| TC1 MEG/Japan | LR2 | WS361 | n/p | 🔻 −143 pts |
| TC20 MEG/UKC | LR2 | $8.27m | n/p | 🔻 −$1.48m |
| TC5 MEG/Japan | LR1 | WS355 | n/p | 🔻 −166 pts |
| TC14 USG/UKC | MR | WS237 | $27,307 | 🔺 +90 pts |
| TC21 USG/Caribbean | MR | $1.21m | $49,233 | 🔺 +101% |
| TC2 ARA/US-Atlantic | MR | WS129 | $4,279 | 🔺 +8 pts |
| TC17 MEG/East Africa | MR | WS515 | $61,035 | 🔻 −25 pts |
| MR Atlantic Basket | MR | — | $34,496 | 🔺 +$16,387 |
Sources: Baltic Exchange, Week 27; Signal Group; Lloyd’s List
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: TD3C down 52% from peak; China’s H1 crude imports down 23% year-on-year. Two corrections, related but distinct. If China stays away when the strait fully reopens, the VLCC market discovers it fixed a supply problem it didn’t have.
Containers: rates keep climbing, the ceiling moves higher
The Drewry World Container Index gained 9% to $4,530 per 40ft container — a second consecutive period of sharp gains pushing the composite index 40% above year-ago levels. The Transpacific remained the strongest leg: Shanghai–Los Angeles climbed 10% to $6,349, Shanghai–New York rose 11% to $7,902. The Europe trades followed: Shanghai–Rotterdam gained 7% to $4,682, Shanghai–Genoa jumped 10% to $6,360. The backhaul lanes stayed anchored — Rotterdam–Shanghai at $647, Los Angeles–Shanghai at $828 — confirming the surge is demand-driven on the headhaul, not a generalised market move. Capacity discipline remains loose: carriers continue deploying rather than blanking, with the 1 July Peak Season Surcharge activations by CMA CGM and others now in effect and holding without significant shipper resistance.
Drewry World Container Index — Week 27, 2 July 2026
| Route | $/40ft | WoW |
|---|---|---|
| WCI Composite | $4,530 | 🔺 +9% |
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | $6,349 | 🔺 +10% |
| Shanghai → New York | $7,902 | 🔺 +11% |
| Shanghai → Rotterdam | $4,682 | 🔺 +7% |
| Shanghai → Genoa | $6,360 | 🔺 +10% |
| Rotterdam → New York | $2,602 | 🔺 +1% |
| Los Angeles → Shanghai | $828 | ➡ unchanged |
| Rotterdam → Shanghai | $647 | ➡ unchanged |
Sources: Drewry WCI, Week 27; Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Two consecutive periods of 5–9% gains on the WCI, in a year the market was supposed to correct. The PSS activations are holding, the blanking is minimal, and the Cape-diverted capacity has not come back. When all three reverse — and in Q3 at least two of them will — the real test becomes how far rates fall, and how fast carriers can blank capacity back out of the market.
Bunkers: prices ease further, the scrubber spread stays wide
Bunker prices continued their downward trajectory. On 2 July, the MABUX World Bunker Index registered 380 HSFO at $547.58/MT, VLSFO at $696.85/MT and MGO LS at $1,088.19/MT — moving sideways without a clear trend, with MABUX projecting minimal movement of ±1–3 USD/MT on HSFO and VLSFO ahead. The broader context remains striking: VLSFO averaged $723.50/tonne at the top 20 hubs — down 31% from the March crisis peak of $1,053/tonne but still up 46% versus the pre-war average, while HSFO averaged $574/tonne, down 37% from its all-time high of $916/tonne on 19 March. Delivered premiums remain elevated in Singapore and Fujairah where logistics constraints and limited barge availability persist — the physical market is catching up with the forward curve, but has not yet fully arrived.
MABUX World Bunker Index — Week 27, 2026
| Grade | 26 Jun | 2 Jul | WoW trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 380 HSFO | $553.74/MT | $547.58/MT | 🔻 −$6.16 |
| VLSFO | $713.05/MT | $696.85/MT | 🔻 −$16.20 |
| MGO LS | $1,065.55/MT | $1,088.19/MT | 🔺 +$22.64 |
| VLSFO vs. crisis peak | — | −31% | 🔻 correcting |
| HSFO vs. crisis peak | — | −37% | 🔻 correcting faster |
Sources: MABUX, 2 Jul 2026; Lloyd’s List
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: HSFO falling faster than VLSFO is the market doing scrubber owners a quiet favour. The spread the crisis inflated is not fully unwinding — it is settling at a level that keeps new scrubber orders rational. Bunkers will eventually price out the Hormuz premium. The orderbook already has.
Gas carriers: the arbitrage bounces back, the LNG market softens
The VLGC market staged a meaningful recovery after two consecutive periods of sharp declines. BLPG1 (Ras Tanura–Chiba) rebounded to $262.50/MT, with TCE earnings closing at $264,164/day — up from $211.25 and $205,504/day the previous Friday. The U.S. Gulf routes recovered in tandem: BLPG2 improved $15.25 to $106.50, TCE climbing to $114,354/day, while BLPG3 added $28.66 to close at $191.83, TCE rising to $101,534/day — an influx of charters in the U.S. Gulf as the arbitrage between U.S. and Middle East LPG pricing partially re-established itself. LNG moved in the opposite direction: BLNG1 (Australia–Japan) eased to $71,000/day, BLNG3 (U.S. Gulf–Japan) declined to $95,900/day. The time-charter market held where it mattered: the six-month rate held at $99,900/day and the three-year at $78,900/day.
Baltic Gas Carrier Assessments — Week 27, 3 July 2026
| Route | Index ($/MT or $/day) | TCE $/day | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLPG1 Ras Tanura/Chiba | $262.50 | $264,164 | 🔺 +$51.25/MT |
| BLPG2 Houston/Flushing | $106.50 | $114,354 | 🔺 +$15.25/MT |
| BLPG3 Houston/Chiba | $191.83 | $101,534 | 🔺 +$28.66/MT |
| BLNG1 Australia/Japan | — | $71,000 | 🔻 −$4,000 |
| BLNG2 USG/Continent | — | $89,000 | 🔻 −$1,100 |
| BLNG3 USG/Japan | — | $95,900 | 🔻 −$3,300 |
| 6-month TC | — | $99,900 | ➡ unchanged |
| 1-year TC | — | $75,467 | 🔻 −$2,166 |
| 3-year TC | — | $78,900 | ➡ unchanged |
Source: Baltic Exchange Gas Report, Week 27
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: BLPG1 TCE up $58,660 in one period is the arbitrage reasserting itself, not a structural recovery. Watch the three-year TC — flat for two consecutive periods. That is the only number in this table that reflects where long-term capital is willing to stay.
Sale & purchase: prices hold, activity thins, the holiday factor
Lion Shipbrokers counted 14 transactions — a step down from the previous period’s 20, consistent with seasonal thinning ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, consistent with seasonal thinning ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, but with asset prices showing no meaningful softening. The headline Kamsarmax deal was the Scion Mathilda (82,144 dwt, 2024 Hantong), sold off-market for $41.9 million to Greek buyers, a premium over May’s brand-new Kamsarmax Moana which cleared $36.5 million on prompt delivery. The Rostrum Stoic (82,175 dwt, 2023 Hantong) went off-market at $37.2 million, Lion noting the softer price against the one-year-younger sister Scion Matilda. Older Kamsarmaxes remained firm: the C.S. Olive (82,175 dwt, 2009 Tsuneishi) sold for $17 million and the AC Youth (82,623 dwt, 2007 Tsuneishi, scrubber fitted) cleared $15 million — both firm against end-May comparables. In the Ultramax segment, the Livita (63,532 dwt, 2017 Shin Kasado) fetched $30.5 million off-market — a firm price against April’s $26 million for a similar 2016-built — while the Haato (61,472 dwt, 2011 Shin Kasado) sold at $23.5 million, described as a new benchmark. Handysize was active across the size range, with the African Piper (34,365 dwt, 2015 Namura, scrubber and logs fitted) achieving $20 million.
On the tanker side, the defining deal was the VLCC C. Innovator (313,999 dwt, 2012 Dalian, scrubber fitted), sold for $52 million including the balance of a time charter to Mercuria at approximately $28,000/day until June/October 2027. The Jag Lokesh (LR2, 105,599 dwt, 2009 HHI, scrubber fitted) sold for $44 million on DPP trading basis, delivery Singapore–Japan range within July, with surveys due October. The en-bloc sale of the MR2 pair Caroline (45,999 dwt, blt 2002 STX/Korea) and Lanikai (46,000 dwt, 2002 STX) (46,342 dwt, blt 2002 STX/Korea) fetched $19 million to Chinese buyers.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: A 2012-built VLCC at $52 million with a Mercuria T/C attached is a transaction that prices both the asset and the counterparty. The S&P desk and the freight desk are reading different calendars — one is pricing this quarter; the other is pricing the next fleet. Until asset prices crack, that tells you which desk has more conviction.
Ship recycling: the wave has a list, the beaches are waiting
The deferred recycling wave is no longer a thesis. Lloyd’s List estimates roughly 550 merchant vessels are preparing to exit the Gulf as the strait normalises — approximately 200 bulk carriers, 160 tankers, 60 containerships and 10 vehicle carriers — every unit of ageing tonnage exiting into a freight market whose Capesize premium has unwound and a bunker market priced off $71 Brent rather than $126. Chattogram’s delivery list is already showing the early arrivals: the ERGY (31,341 LDT) and Zamrud (28,858 LDT) gas carriers delivered during the period, with the Irus (28,805 LDT) arrived at anchorage. The next Chattogram tide window opens July 14–17. No market sales were reported in any basin — the tide calendar, not the price, is the binding constraint.
The dollar has taken the war’s place as the basin’s moving force. The Bangladeshi Taka broke through the top of its long-held band to trade near 123.2–123.3 — the first breach since the war opened — driven by the Dollar Index at a more-than-one-year high and roughly 75% odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Local steel plate at Alang softened to a USD equivalent of approximately $385/tonne by 3 July, while Pakistan was the exception: the PKR broke to a fresh 2026 best as June CPI eased to 11.1% — the first annual deceleration since the war opened. Gadani also absorbed a structural headwind: Pakistan’s July 1 SROs introduced duty reductions on HR prime imports of approximately $12.50/tonne and on wire rod of $21.50/tonne — arriving precisely as the Gulf proximity premium disappears.
GMS Market Rankings — Week 27, 3 July 2026
| Rank | Location | Sentiment | Dry Bulk $/LDT | Tankers $/LDT | Containers $/LDT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bangladesh | Steady | $458–463 | $478–483 | $488–493 |
| 2 | Pakistan | Steady | $443–448 | $463–468 | $473–478 |
| 3 | India | Steady | $418–423 | $438–443 | $448–453 |
| 4 | Türkiye | Softening | $268–273 | $278–283 | $288–293 |
Source: GMS Ship Recycling Market Insight, Week 27
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: The wave has a list of 550 vessels and a tide calendar. The monsoon lifts in September; the list converts on schedule. Bangladesh holds the top rank — but the dollar is now the basin’s variable, not the war. The 200 bulk carriers in that exit queue will route on compliance and price. That tension gets resolved vessel by vessel, starting in October.