The week ending 15 May produced a market that finally started to triangulate.
The dry bulk rally tested its second engine and held — Panamax printed a fresh two-year high on Friday in the exact session that Capesize gave back ground, but unlike Week 19 the index closed firmer week-on-week at +5.8%. The Atlantic Aframax deflation that defined Week 19 widened into a Mediterranean and MR collapse, with TC14 USG/UK-Cont losing a brutal 59% TCE in five sessions to print $6,200/day. The Drewry WCI snapped back 12% on surcharges that Drewry itself said wouldn’t stick. Yang Ming announced a $2,000/FEU GRI effective 15 May, joining CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC in trying to lift Asia–Europe FAK rates ahead of an early peak season. The Indian-flagged dhow MSV Haj Ali sank off the coast of Oman on Wednesday after a suspected drone strike, and on Thursday an anchored vessel 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah was taken by unauthorised personnel and steered toward Iranian waters. Trump and Xi met in Beijing on 14–15 May and publicly aligned on keeping the strait open — without committing to how. Hapag-Lloyd reported its first Q1 loss in years on Tuesday. Greek owners kept ordering.
Below, the week as it actually happened.
Tankers: VLCC TCE still prints fiction, the Atlantic basin gives back its premium
Week 20 confirmed what Week 19 hinted at. The Baltic panellists assessed TD3C (MEG/China) at WS447.5, 13 points lower than the previous Friday, giving a theoretical round-trip TCE of $448,502/day. The number is still spectacular and still mostly imaginary — few charterers commit a VLCC through the Hormuz risk envelope at current war-risk pricing, so the screen continues to flatter a market that books almost nothing. The cleaner read sits in the Atlantic, where the Week 18 crisis premium continued unwinding with discipline that matched a textbook.
TD26 (EC Mexico/USG) shed another 85 points to settle near WS272 with a TCE of about $64,800/day — a full 65% below the $187,300 print of Week 18. TD9 (Covenas/USG) lost nearly 75 points to WS262, generating roughly $58,700/day. TD25 (USG/UK-Cont) gave back 53 points to WS236.67 for $49,200/day. The Mediterranean turned uglier as the week progressed: TD19 (Cross-Med) fell over 54 points to WS186, leaving a daily TCE just above $39,000, while TC6 (Cross-Med Handymax) handed back 60 points to WS334 ($56,100/day).
The product market is where the screen broke. TC14 (USG/UK-Cont MR) collapsed 20% in the week to WS155, with the Baltic round-trip TCE falling a further 59% to $6,200/day. The Caribbean lane on TC21 was worse — USG/Caribbean dropped $217,000 to a lumpsum of $514,000, generating just $4,200/day, down 75% from the previous week. The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket fell from $33,300 to $24,500/day, a 26% wipeout in five sessions on top of the prior week’s 47% correction.
Tanker Rate Indications — Week ending 15 May 2026
| Route | Vessel | WS / Lumpsum | TCE | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD3C MEG/China | VLCC | WS447.5 | $448,502/day | 🔻 −WS13 |
| TD15 W. Africa/China | VLCC | WS138.69 | ~$104,500/day | 🔻 −WS13 |
| TD22 USG/China | VLCC | $17.36m | ~$105,200/day | 🔻 −$0.53m |
| TD20 Nigeria/UK-Cont | Suezmax | WS195 | $81,100/day | 🔻 −WS4 |
| TD6 Black Sea/Augusta | Suezmax | WS249 | $144,500/day | 🔻 −WS11 |
| TD7 Cross-UK Continent | Aframax | WS187 | $77,750/day | 🔻 −WS13 |
| TD19 Cross-Mediterranean | Aframax | WS186 | $39,000/day | 🔻 −WS54 |
| TD26 EC Mexico/USG | Aframax | WS272 | $64,800/day | 🔻 −WS85 |
| TD9 Covenas/USG | Aframax | WS262 | $58,700/day | 🔻 −WS75 |
| TD25 USG/UK-Cont | Aframax | WS236.67 | $49,200/day | 🔻 −WS53 |
| TC2 ARA/U.S. Atlantic | MR | WS210 | $15,400/day | 🔻 −WS3.4 |
| TC14 USG/UK-Cont | MR | WS155 | $6,200/day | 🔻 −WS55 |
| TC21 USG/Caribbean | MR | $514k lumpsum | $4,200/day | 🔻 −75% |
| TC6 Cross-Mediterranean | Handymax | WS334 | $56,100/day | 🔻 −WS60 |
| TC23 Cross UK-Continent | Handymax | WS317 | $48,200/day | 🔻 −WS62 |
Source: Baltic Exchange Tanker Report — Week 20, 15 May 2026
The dirty market still looks structurally tight; the clean market is now telling owners that the war premium was always going to bleed out fastest where the substitution math is cleanest. European ballasters are back. MR USG positions that fixed at six figures in Week 18 are now fixing below break-even on some lanes.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: TD3C is a paper rate, not a market — panellists keep assessing what charterers refuse to book at war-risk pricing. The signal that matters is the product tape: when TC14 prints below break-even for Atlantic-basin owners in two consecutive weeks, the substitution math has done its work and the clean regime is now distinct from the dirty one. Crude positions out of the Caribbean and USG should fix while the screens still flatter the book. By the time TD3C corrects, the Atlantic premium will already be priced out.
Dry bulk: BDI 3,195 mid-week, BPI two-year high again, Friday hands the index back
The Baltic Dry Index opened the week at 3,001 on Monday after the previous Friday’s pullback, rebuilt steadily on Cape strength, broke through 3,189 on Wednesday, and hit a fresh high of 3,195 on Thursday — the highest reading since December 5. Then Friday handed back 44 points to close at 3,151, with the weekly gain stamped at +5.8%. The shape underneath is more interesting than the index level.
BDI Daily Performance — Week 20, 2026
| Date | BDI | Capesize | Panamax | Supramax | Handysize |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 11 May | 3,001 (+23) | $41,630/day | $20,548/day | $19,300/day | $15,077/day |
| Tue 12 May | 3,063 (+62) | $42,588/day | $21,241/day | $19,408/day | $15,165/day |
| Wed 13 May | 3,189 (+126) | $44,930/day | $22,083/day | $19,625/day | $15,255/day |
| Thu 14 May | 3,195 (+6) | $44,706/day | $22,528/day | $19,698/day | $15,311/day |
| Fri 15 May | 3,151 (−44) | $43,413/day | $22,691/day | $19,788/day | $15,296/day |
Sources: HandyBulk — Baltic Dry Index daily updates (Mon 11 – Fri 15 May 2026); Baird Maritime — Baltic Dry Bulk Index Falls, 15 May 2026.
Panamax was the segment of the week, full stop. The P5TC closed Friday at $22,691/day, up $163 on the day but up 12.9% week-on-week — the best week the segment has had since July 2025. The Atlantic basin held firm sentiment on robust fronthaul levels, tightening prompt supply and continued ECSA grain exports, while the Pacific picked up on consistent Indonesian and Australian mineral flows and improving North Pacific grain demand. By Wednesday the BPI had climbed to 2,454 (+3.98%) on multi-route tightness, and Friday’s +0.7% close at 2,521 confirmed the breakout was not a one-session accident. The BPI sits 99% higher year-to-date. Period activity was firm throughout the week with multiple clean fixtures recorded.
The Capesize Friday correction has now happened on two consecutive Fridays, suggesting panellists are calibrating Pacific ballaster availability into the Brazilian and Australian cargo books rather than signalling structural weakness. C3 Brazil/China climbed into the high $37s mid-week before easing into the high $36s by the close, while C5 West Australia/Qingdao moved above $15.50 mid-week before easing to $15. Even with Friday’s 2.3% drop, the Capesize index closed the week up 4.4%. Year-on-year comparisons: BDI +127%, Capesize ~+150%, Panamax ~+60%, Supramax ~+55%, Handysize ~+50%.
The Friday tape revealed a cleaner segmentation than the headline BDI suggests. Capesize and Handysize both gave back — Cape by 2.3%, Handy by a marginal $15/day on a single index point — while Panamax (+0.7%) and Supramax (+0.5% / +$90/day) kept advancing into the close. The split is not random: the largest and smallest segments corrected on the same session, while the two mid-size workhorse segments held momentum. Read together with the period activity in Panamax and the Ultramax fronthaul firmness Lion reported out of U.S. Gulf and ECSA, the message is that the cargo book sits firmly in the middle of the size curve right now. Cape needs ballaster discipline to clear; Handy needs European demand it does not yet have. Pana and Supra need neither — they have the trade routes already.
S&P confirmed the freight signal again. Banchero Costa’s weekly report counted continued dry bulk transactions including notable benchmarks: the post-Panamax Lestari Manjung (93k dwt, 2011 Jiangsu Newyangzi) sold around $14m, the Kamsarmax Sirocco (82k dwt, 2014 Sainty) at $20m waiving inspection, the Avalon (81,565 dwt, 2011 Sungdong) at the high $17m mark. The standout was the en bloc sale of the two 2023 Huangpu Wenchong-built Kamsarmaxes Seacon Nola and Seacon Hamburg to Asyad for $72m total. Lion Shipbrokers’ Week 20 report mirrored the same picture: prices either matched or exceeded prior comparable trades.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: The rally has finally added a second engine. Panamax leading on a week when Capesize gives back, and then closing firmer week-on-week, says the cargo book is multi-segment tight — not Cape-dependent. The two consecutive Friday Capesize corrections look less like fatigue and more like panellists calibrating to Pacific ballaster availability. With the Atlantic firm on fronthaul and ECSA grain, and the Pacific picking up on Indonesian-Australian flows, the Cape-Panamax spread has more room to compress before either segment hits a ceiling. Charterers waiting for a Cape correction to cover Q3 are betting against a tape that has now corrected twice and bounced. Period covers below spot are starting to look like the right side of the trade.
Containers: Drewry WCI +12% to $2,553, surcharges fight a structural overhang
The Drewry World Container Index surged 12% to $2,553/40ft on 14 May, snapping the modest 3% recovery of Week 19 into a much larger jump. Drewry attributed the rally to higher freight rates on Transpacific and Asia–Europe trade routes, with the index sitting up 11.67% week-on-week from $2,286 the prior week. The Transpacific lanes led: Shanghai–New York climbed 14% to $4,252/FEU, Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 10% to $3,357/FEU. Asia–Europe joined: Shanghai–Genoa jumped 20% to $3,701/FEU, Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 11% to $2,413/FEU. Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index added another 1% to $925/FEU, a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Drewry Container Indices — Week 20, 14 May 2026
| Route / Index | $/40ft | WoW |
|---|---|---|
| WCI Composite | $2,553 | 🔺 +12% |
| Shanghai → New York | $4,252 | 🔺 +14% |
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | $3,357 | 🔺 +10% |
| Shanghai → Genoa | $3,701 | 🔺 +20% |
| Shanghai → Rotterdam | $2,413 | 🔺 +11% |
| New York → Rotterdam | $1,030 | 🔺 +1% |
| IACI (Intra-Asia) | $925 | 🔺 +1% |
Source: Drewry World Container Index, 14 May 2026
The mechanism is surcharges, blank sailings and capacity management — not demand. Yang Ming Line announced a General Rate Increase of $2,000 per 40ft container effective 15 May, with Drewry citing the GRI directly in its WCI commentary. CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC followed with mid-May FAK rate increases on Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean trades. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, seven blank sailings were announced on the Transpacific trade route for the coming week. Drewry’s editorial verdict ran characteristically blunt: successful implementation of the FAK increases remains uncertain due to weak demand and excess vessel capacity. Carriers are manufacturing urgency faster than cargo can justify it.
The Asia–Europe peak season is starting earlier than usual — higher cargo bookings, tight vessel space, and disruptions linked to the US/Israel-Iran conflict are prompting shippers to move cargo earlier. Effective capacity will fall 3% MoM on Asia–North Europe and 10% MoM on Asia–Med in May. Across major East-West trades, Drewry counted 34 blank sailings expected over weeks 20–24 out of 702 scheduled departures.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: The rate spike has the wrong texture. Surcharges and blank sailings produce vertical moves; demand growth produces persistence. The Hapag-Lloyd Q1 print made the floor visible — when two of the top five carriers swing to losses in the same quarter, the playbook is buying time, not changing the cycle. The Asia–Europe jump survives until peak season actually peaks. By Q3 the structural surplus reasserts, and the FAK announcements that look heroic this month will look like the last gasp before contract renegotiations move the floor lower.
Bunkers: VLSFO stabilises in the $940s, scrubber spread breaks $167
The MABUX Week 20 print showed the global bunker market entering a phase of relative stabilisation. 380 HSFO declined $6.17 to $776.65/MT, VLSFO rose $4.44 to $943.89/MT, and MGO LS decreased $6.57 to $1,404.00/MT. The picture is one of consolidation rather than directional movement — the $40+/MT weekly moves of Week 19 are gone, replaced by single-digit drift across the segment.
Bunkers: VLSFO stabilises in the $940s, Istanbul ECA spread snaps back, Fujairah turns expensive
The MABUX Week 20 print showed the global bunker market entering a phase of relative stabilisation. 380 HSFO declined $6.17 to $776.65/MT, VLSFO rose $4.44 to $943.89/MT, and MGO LS decreased $6.57 to $1,404.00/MT. The picture is one of consolidation rather than directional movement — the $40+/MT weekly moves of Week 19 are gone, replaced by single-digit drift across the segment.
MABUX Global Bunker Index — Week 20, 15 May 2026
| Grade | Week 19 ($/MT) | Week 20 ($/MT) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 380 HSFO | $782.82 | $776.65 | 🔻 −$6.17 |
| VLSFO | $939.45 | $943.89 | 🔺 +$4.44 |
| MGO LS | $1,410.57 | $1,404.00 | 🔻 −$6.57 |
| Scrubber Spread (Global) | $156.63 | $167.24 | 🔺 +$10.61 |
| Istanbul ECA Spread | $20.00 | $75.00 | 🔺 +$55.00 |
Source: MABUX — Bunker Prices to Keep Fluctuating Next Week, 15 May 2026
Two structural stories sit underneath the indices. First, the Global Scrubber Spread firmed $10.61 to $167.24, comfortably above the $100 breakeven and continuing to support the economic case for scrubber-fitted tonnage. Second, and more interesting, the Istanbul ECA Spread snapped back $55 in a single week from $20 to $75, with the weekly average advancing $15 — fully recovering the prior weeks’ losses and approaching the $100 threshold that flips ULSFO from economically marginal to attractive versus traditional MGO LS in the Black Sea/Marmara ECA zone.
The MABUX Market Differential Index also flagged a notable rotation. Fujairah moved into the overvalued zone for both 380 HSFO (overpricing premium +61 points) and VLSFO (+70 points), making it the only overvalued port in either of those segments. Singapore’s HSFO MDI fell below the $100 mark on undervaluation widening. Rotterdam and Houston remained undervalued across all three fuels. The picture: Hormuz risk is now visibly priced into Fujairah bunker stems versus the Singapore alternative, with the spread wide enough that re-routed traffic is paying for the safety.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Single-digit weekly drift after weeks of $40+/MT moves says the market has priced the Hormuz premium without crisis. The signal that matters is the Fujairah/Singapore differential — Fujairah pricing above its digital benchmark for the first time in weeks while Singapore stays undervalued. This is bunker arbitrage telling the same story as the freight tape: the Strait premium is now expressed at the stem, not at the screen. Owners stemming East-of-Suez should price the Fujairah/Singapore differential into voyage economics. The Istanbul ECA Spread snap-back to $75 is the next leg to watch — it is approaching the threshold where ULSFO substitution becomes economic.
Gas carriers: BLPG3 prints $305/MT, the LPG story stops being a footnote
The Baltic Week 20 gas report confirmed the LPG/LNG divergence has gone vertical. LPG continued firming across all three benchmark routes. BLPG3 (Houston/Chiba) rose $13.17 to $305.33/MT, with TCE up $8,620 to $184,796/day. BLPG2 (Houston/Flushing) added $9 to $166/MT, TCE $190,810/day (+$11,167). BLPG1 (Ras Tanura/Chiba) softened modestly to $207.50/MT, TCE $195,775/day. LNG cooled across all three routes — BLNG3 (USG/Japan) lost $5,300 to $100,800/day, BLNG2 (USG/Continent) shed $800 to $94,300/day, BLNG1 (Australia/Japan) eased $1,700 to $64,800/day.
Baltic Gas Carrier Assessments — Week 20, 15 May 2026
| Route | Index ($/MT) | TCE ($/day) | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLPG1 Ras Tanura/Chiba | $207.50 | $195,775/day | 🔺 +$3,493 |
| BLPG2 Houston/Flushing | $166.00 | $190,810/day | 🔺 +$13,716 |
| BLPG3 Houston/Chiba | $305.33 | $184,796/day | 🔺 +$10,006 |
| BLNG1 Australia/Japan | — | $64,800/day | 🔻 −$1,700 |
| BLNG2 USG/Continent | — | $94,300/day | 🔻 −$800 |
| BLNG3 USG/Japan | — | $100,800/day | 🔻 −$5,300 |
Source: Baltic Exchange Gas Carrier Report — Week 20, 15 May 2026
The LNG period market continued to diverge from spot. The six-month TC edged up $200 to $92,300/day, the one-year fell $1,600 to $85,100/day, and the three-year eased $1,000 to $84,000/day, reflecting a cautious longer-term outlook despite stable spot fundamentals.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: BLPG3 has moved from war premium to structural rerouting — owners with VLGCs on water are extracting it fully, and the spot tape says they keep extracting until duration of regime resolves. The period market disagrees: charterers locking three-year rates below $85,000/day while spot prints $185,000 is the cleanest expression of forward-curve disbelief in any segment this cycle. Whoever is right about how long Hormuz stays managed wins the cycle. The Atlantic LNG cool-down in the same week says the divergence is already inside the data.
Hormuz: Project Freedom, two more attacks, and Iran’s five conditions
The strait stopped behaving like a chokepoint and started behaving like a managed waterway. Windward Maritime AI’s 13 May Daily Intelligence identified 17 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz — 12 inbound (11 AIS-correlated plus one dark transit, a 186m bunkering Panamax tracked southbound through electro-optical imagery after the day’s bunker operation) and 5 outbound, all AIS-correlated. Iran-flagged hulls (4) and Comoros-flagged (2) dominated the inbound cohort. The pattern of selective, Iran-coordinated transits that began in mid-March is now the operating regime: a pre-approval system the IRGC is formalising requires ownership and cargo destination data submitted in advance, with traffic running at roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels.
Project Freedom — the U.S. Navy’s commercial-escort operation announced by President Trump on 4 May and paused 24 hours later citing progress toward an Iran agreement — finished Week 20 looking smaller than its name. The blockade of Iranian ports remains in force; the escort component does not. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, said Iran’s “ability to stop commerce has been dramatically degraded through the straits, but their voice is very loud, and those threats are clearly heard by the merchant industry and the insurance industry”. Cooper added the U.S. destroyed roughly 90% of Iran’s inventory of 8,000 naval mines and “met every military objective” under Operation Epic Fury, while acknowledging Iran still retains “a very moderate, if not small, capability” to strike regional neighbours. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen, speaking on the Tuesday Q1 call, said directly that “escort capacity is not currently sufficient to guide all ships through” and that any meaningful liner return to the strait would be gradual over multiple months to avoid overwhelming terminals in the Mediterranean, Northern Europe and the U.S. The market chose its own arbiter: tanker transits stayed more than 95% below pre-conflict norms throughout Week 20.
The Wednesday incident reset risk perceptions. An Indian-flagged wooden cargo vessel — the dhow MSV Haj Ali, a 54-metre wooden barge — sank off the coast of Limah, Oman, following a suspected drone or missile strike. All 14 Indian crew were rescued by the Omani coast guard. The ship had been carrying livestock from Berbera in Somaliland to Sharjah in the UAE; this was the second vessel lost in the region since the conflict began on 28 February. Thursday brought a second incident. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Warning #057-26 reported that an anchored vessel 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah had been “taken by unauthorised personnel” and was bound for Iranian territorial waters; maritime security sources later identified the vessel as the Honduras-flagged Hui Chuan fishery research vessel.
The diplomatic counterpoint came in Beijing. Trump met Xi on 14–15 May at the Zhongnanhai compound for nearly three hours of talks before completing his three-day China visit. The White House readout, reported by TIME, described it directly: “The two sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy. President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use.” Trump told Fox News that Xi had offered to help broker peace and pledged not to provide military equipment to Iran. “He said, ‘I would love to be a help, if I can be of any help whatsoever,’” Trump said, adding that Xi told him China intended to continue buying oil from Iran. The Chinese foreign ministry readout made no mention of Iran or Hormuz, with Beijing notably declining to publicly commit to influencing Tehran. Iranian semi-official news reported separately that Chinese ships began passing through the strait on Wednesday night under new Iranian protocols, after requests from China’s foreign minister and Beijing’s ambassador to Iran — the passages timed to coincide with Trump’s arrival in China.
Iran’s negotiating position simultaneously hardened. Tehran said it will not enter more talks with the United States unless five conditions are met, including paying reparations for the war and accepting Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported. Iranian senior vice president Mohammadreza Aref said Thursday that the strait belongs to Iran and that Tehran would not give it up “at any price.” Iran’s judiciary spokesperson separately told the state-owned Iran Daily that Iran has “the legal and judicial right” to seize oil tankers in the strait connected to the United States.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Alignment between two non-belligerents does not solve the problem when Tehran’s five conditions include sovereignty over the strait. This week’s incidents — one ship sunk, one ship taken — say the operating risk has not declined despite the diplomatic theatre. The market has done its own arithmetic: tanker FFA curves and Atlantic-basin tonne-mile demand are now priced with the present regime as the baseline, not a temporary spike. That is a meaningful change in psychology, and it is happening at the desk level faster than at the headline level. The trade is to accept the regime, not wait for it to end.
Hapag-Lloyd Q1 and the ZIM track: the bellwether confirms the floor
Hapag-Lloyd published its Q1 2026 results on Tuesday 13 May and the print confirmed what the Maersk 7 May report had already telegraphed. Group revenue fell to EUR 4.2 billion ($4.92bn) from EUR 5.1 billion in Q1 2025, driven by lower freight rates and negative exchange-rate effects. Group EBITDA stood at EUR 422 million ($494m) versus EUR 1,048m a year earlier, Group EBIT at EUR −134 million (−$157m) versus +€463m, with Group profit at EUR −219 million (−$256m) versus the +€446m profit in Q1 2025 — a €665m year-on-year swing into the red. The Liner Shipping segment carried the damage: revenues decreased to USD 4.8 billion, driven primarily by the lower average freight rate of $1,330/TEU versus $1,471/TEU in Q1 2025 (−9.5%). Transport volume was 3.2 million TEU, down 0.7% year-on-year.
Hapag-Lloyd Q1 2026 Snapshot
| Metric | Q1 2026 (€m) | Q1 2025 (€m) | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group Revenue | 4,201 | 5,052 | −851 |
| Group EBITDA | 422 | 1,048 | −626 |
| Group EBIT | −134 | 463 | −597 |
| Group profit | −219 | 446 | −665 |
| Avg Freight Rate ($/TEU) | 1,330 | 1,471 | −9.5% |
| Transport volume (m TEU) | 3.2 | 3.2 | −0.7% |
Source: Hapag-Lloyd AG Q1 2026 Quarterly Financial Report, 13 May 2026
The Middle East cost weighs heavily and management quantified it for the first time. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen estimated the operational impact at €50 million to €60 million per week — rerouting, congestion, fuel premia and extended voyage hours that surcharges only partially recover. Full-year EBITDA guidance was held at $1.1–3.1 billion (€0.9–2.6bn), EBIT at −$1.5 to +$0.5bn. Habben Jansen described the band as deliberately wide, citing “considerable uncertainty” over how freight rates and the conflict develop through the rest of the year.
The ZIM merger track ran in parallel through the same call. Habben Jansen confirmed regulatory filings are progressing, including consent from the Israeli government, and reaffirmed Q4 2026 as the expected closing window. The Sakal Group’s $4.5bn counter-bid at $37.50/share — a 7.1% premium to Hapag’s $35/share — remains formally outside the binding 30 April shareholder approval which carried 97% support, and ZIM’s board has reconfirmed support for the original transaction. The labour dispute at ZIM’s Israeli operations, which began with a 900-employee walkout late Week 19, eased over Week 20 with talks continuing between the union, ZIM management and Hapag-Lloyd. The structural risk now sits with the regulator, not the shareholders or the labour bench.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Two top-five carriers swinging to Q1 losses in the same month — even with Cape diversion absorbing capacity and surcharges stacked on every East–West lane — defines the floor of the present rate environment, not cyclical noise. Habben Jansen’s €50–60m/week Hormuz bill is the cleanest accounting of what the war costs an industry trying to operate around it. The ZIM deal still closes on this math, but the wider question is whether a five-carrier oligopoly survives the next freight rate floor. Three forms of the same answer are visible: Maersk’s depreciation gift, Hapag’s surcharge battle, CMA CGM’s quiet capacity discipline. All buy time. None reset the cycle.
Greek shipping: another orderbook week, China hits 84.9% market share, Lion price tape confirms
The macro context for everything that follows: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported on 14 May that Chinese yards captured 84.9% of global newbuilding orders in Q1 2026 — 59.53m dwt, up 195.2% year-on-year — with international market share exceeding 90% for VLCCs, large car carriers, bulk carriers and large containerships above 10,000 TEU. The global orderbook stands at 322.3m dwt, up 43.6% year-on-year. Chinese yards ranked first globally in 15 of 18 major ship categories. This is the structural backdrop against which the Week 20 newbuilding tape reads.
After the Q1 record of 102 newbuildings worth $10.1bn, Greek owners stayed busy in Week 20. China’s Hengli Heavy Industries secured an order for 2 x 158,000 dwt Suezmax tankers from Greece’s Beacon Tankers Management, the latest Greek crude order at the yard that has been moving aggressively into VLCC/Suezmax construction since 2023. The same yard produced a separate global benchmark this week: the freshly delivered VLCC Hengli Dalian HLZG2024-T300K-9 (306,000 dwt, 2026 Hengli) sold to Swiss buyers for $163m — a clean price discovery for newly delivered tonnage from a yard still establishing its VLCC reputation. South Korea’s Pan Ocean approved a $525m investment in four VLCC newbuildings with November 2030 deliveries, implying $131m per vessel — confirming that the VLCC orderbook is filling out across non-Greek owners as well. The other newbuilding flow involved Chinese yards picking up bulker tonnage from Asian buyers — Jiangmen Nanyang Shipbuilding secured 8 x 40,500 dwt bulkers from undisclosed interests at $30m each, and Dajin Heavy Industry took an order for 3 x 64,500 dwt bulkers from Anhui Guomao Haichang Trading.
The S&P tape carried strong sentiment across the segment. Lion Shipbrokers’ Week 20 report counted 15 bulkers changing hands (1 Capesize, 1 post-Panamax, 2 Kamsarmaxes, 1 Ultramax, 3 Supramaxes, 1 Handymax, 6 Handies), with prices either matching or exceeding prior comparable trades. The benchmark prints worth tracking: the 2011 Capesize Pigassos (176,364 dwt, SWS) sold to Chinese buyers for $31.7m — a 15% premium over February’s sister-ship trade Golden Myrtalia at $27.5m. The 2010 Kamsarmax HC Pioneer (83,476 dwt, Sanoyas/Japan) sold at $17.8m, again 15% above January’s similar-vintage Cretansea at $15.15m. The 2014 eco-engined Ultramax Jin Chao (63,518 dwt, Hantong) sold for $25.1m versus the sister Jin Rui at $24m in March. The 2013 Supramax Crimson Knight (58,651 dwt, NACKS) printed $19.1m basis charter-free delivery mid-June to August.
The Greek-buyer column was led by the Supramax Sumaq Queen (51,052 dwt, 2017 Imabari, open-hatch/box-shaped, eco main engine), sold to Greek buyers for $25m — a strong print for a Japanese-built mid-aged Ultramax with the geared configuration that Greek operators have systematically preferred this cycle. In the MR2 tanker segment, the sister resale pair Horizon Andros (50,000 dwt, 2027 Zhoushan Changhong) and Horizon Syros (50,000 dwt, 2026 Zhoushan Changhong) sold en bloc for $51m each — a benchmark resale print for newbuildings still under construction, and a number that confirms what the freight market keeps showing on TC2 and TC14: forward-curve disbelief is meeting spot-tape resilience at the resale window.
The Posidonia run-up has begun. The Posidonia 2026 conference programme starts weeks ahead of the 1–5 June exhibition, with the TradeWinds Shipowners Forum Greece on 2 June themed “Resilience in the face of disruption” — a programme shaped by war, sanctions, shifting trade routes and regulatory pressures. Capital Link’s Maritime Leaders Summit opens proceedings on 1 June, with HELMEPA’s International Conference on 3 June covering sustainability, digitalisation and the future of maritime operations.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Q1’s 84.9% China share is not preference — it is the visible exhaustion of Korean and Japanese slots through 2029, which gives owners a one-way choice: order at NB parity now or wait three years for the next berth. The $51m resales on MR2 tonnage still under construction confirm the second-hand market is paying for that same scarcity. Posidonia in two weeks will toast a cycle whose deliveries land into 2028–2030, while the war that shapes those tonne-miles is happening today. The orderbook is being placed against a duration of regime no one can yet price — and that is the trade that matters.
The week did not resolve any of the central questions, but it changed the texture of all of them. The dry bulk rally now runs on two engines and looks structurally healthier. The tanker rally has begun to bifurcate, with VLCCs holding paper prices while the Atlantic basin gives back its premium and the MR product market collapses. The container surcharge offensive is being recognised as such by Drewry and by the freight forwarders. The bunker market has stopped spiking. The Trump–Xi meeting in Beijing established a strategic alignment that does not yet have an operational answer. Iran’s five conditions tell owners that the present regime is the regime, until further notice.
Hapag-Lloyd reported a $256m Q1 loss on the same morning that ZIM’s binding merger continued through regulatory review, and on the same day that the Indian dhow MSV Haj Ali sank in the Gulf of Oman. The connection between those events is not coincidence; it is the present operating environment.
Veson Nautical’s Q2 Outlook, published 16 May, described the Hormuz situation as a “de facto closure entering its third month” and named the present regime as baseline through year-end — institutional confirmation that the dynamics of the past ten weeks are now the operating frame, not the disruption.
Posidonia opens in two weeks and the data justifies the noise.
The cycle does not yet justify the orderbook.