The shipping world rarely moves in unison—and this week proves it. Tankers ride a euphoric high while container operators count losses, as trade wars, sanctions, and shipyard optimism collide. From Trump’s port fees to Greek resilience and the IMO’s latest delay, the global shipping market delivers both chaos and opportunity in equal measure.
Welcome to Week 15 of Decks & Deals Weekly.
Tanker market: The week’s unexpected hero
The global shipping market served up its most dramatic split personality in months. Whilst container operators nursed their wounds, crude tanker owners popped champagne. VLCC rates opened the week at $95,000/day before settling to $79,500 by Friday—still comfortably in six-figure territory for many fixtures. Clarksons reported rates rose $2,200 on Friday alone, ending a four-day slide that probably felt like an eternity to traders who’d grown accustomed to printing money.
John Fredriksen’s Frontline and the Alafouzos family both secured six-figure VLCC charters as the market demonstrated what happens when Russian oil sanctions meet global demand. The U.S. sanctioned two major Russian producers, forcing buyers to scramble for alternative crude sources. Supertanker freight futures soared accordingly—a textbook example of geopolitics creating fortunes for those positioned correctly.
Lloyd’s List noted crude tankers are “firing on all cylinders” with oil in transit hitting levels not seen since 2020. VLCC rates climbed to $82,000–85,000/day whilst Suezmax rates reached their highest since November. The global shipping market occasionally rewards patience, though one suspects luck plays an equally significant role.
U.S. and China port tariffs added extra spice to VLCC rates, with accompanying costs and fleet inefficiencies boosting demand. When governments compete in tariff wars, shipowners collect the spoils. How delightfully predictable.
Container rates: The great unravelling continues
Ocean container rates plunged to their lowest levels since January 2024, with major transpacific routes down roughly 45–60% since June—some secondary reports cite falls of up to 70% on select lanes. European logistics firms now face quarterly earnings calls that promise to be thoroughly unpleasant. The culprits remain industry oversupply and weaker demand following Trump’s tariffs—a combination that would make even optimistic analysts reach for whisky.
Yet Asia–U.S. routes tell a different story. Rates ex-Asia climbed despite slowing demand as carriers pushed through General Rate Increases with characteristic subtlety. Xeneta’s data shows Far East to U.S. West Coast at $2,044/FEU and Far East to U.S. East Coast at $2,953/FEU as of 23 October. The global shipping market appears unable to decide whether it’s booming or busting—so it’s doing both simultaneously.
Air freight rates from China to the U.S. shot past $7.50/kg, driven by tariff fears and tight capacity. Panic buying ahead of potential tariffs has become this decade’s most reliable market driver. One might observe that human nature remains wonderfully consistent.
Trump’s port fees: The gift that keeps taking
President Trump’s new port fees—effective 14 October—have created a masterclass in unintended consequences. One U.S.-based ocean carrier faces an estimated $34 million annual bill, whilst Chinese carriers COSCO and OOCL incurred over $40 million in initial fees. The combined damage exceeds $74 million, which represents either remarkable incompetence or deliberate policy. One suspects the former.
Beijing struck back with reciprocal port fees targeting vessels associated with the U.S. The global shipping market now features a tariff tennis match where carriers serve as the ball. Meanwhile, Chinese exports continue flowing despite the trade war, with Q3 shipments exceeding $100 billion. Tariffs rarely achieve their stated objectives, though they do create excellent opportunities for accountants.
Trump’s administration also helped kill the UN’s proposed shipping tax through threats of retaliation and funding cuts. One might applaud the efficiency whilst questioning the diplomacy.
Newbuilding frenzy: The $5.6 billion week
South Korea’s HMM ordered a $2.8 billion fleet comprising 12 x 13,000 TEU containerships and two VLCCs, all LNG dual-fuelled. Taiwan’s Evergreen matched this with its own $2.8 billion order for LNG dual-fuel ships. That’s $5.6 billion in orders during a week when container rates collapsed. The global shipping market continues ordering vessels precisely when rates crater—timing remains everything, and the industry consistently demonstrates it has none.
Chinese yards dominate container ship newbuildings, with the orderbook exceeding 10 million TEU. Peter Döhle Schiffahrts-KG ordered four feedermax containerships from Chinese yards, whilst Transocean Maritime Agencies enters the containership market with newbuild feeders. South Korea’s Daehan Shipbuilding secured two boxship orders worth $232.1 million.
Bureau Veritas reported 3% fleet growth to over 12,000 ships, propelled by newbuilding activity. The ordering spree continues unabated, suggesting either remarkable optimism or collective amnesia about previous cycles.
Heidmar’s strategic expansion
U.S.-listed Heidmar Maritime Holdings announced strategic additions to its managed fleet, boosting both crude and product tanker capacity. The company followed up a new management deal with Evangelos Marinakis by adding “super-eco” LR newbuildings to its product tanker fleet.
Someone at Heidmar clearly reads market signals—the tanker boom created opportunities, and they moved quickly.
Dry bulk: The forgotten sector
The Baltic Dry Index fell to 1,991 points on 24 October, down 66 points and posting a 3.8% weekly loss. The Capesize index hit a three-week low, losing 188 points (6.2%) to 2,871 points, with an 8% weekly decline. Whilst tankers boomed and containers collapsed, dry bulk quietly suffered.
Fortescue posted a 4.2% rise in first-quarter iron-ore shipments, logging record Q1 production. Vale sees 2025 iron ore output at the top range after a strong Q3, estimating 325–335 million tonnes for the year. Production remains robust, yet freight rates decline—a familiar pattern suggesting oversupply continues plaguing the sector.
LNG shipping: Orders halve, rates rise
Atlantic LNG shipping rates continued rising, with U.S. weekly exports reaching 32 cargoes. The BLNG2 U.S. Gulf–Continent route strengthened notably, with 174k cbm rates rising $5,400 to $29,300/day and 160k cbm ships up $4,000 to $16,200/day. The global shipping market demonstrates that not all sectors move in lockstep.
LNG orders halved in 2025, with only 38 vessels ordered in 9M25 compared to 86 in 9M24. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio continues weakening, though analysts predict a likely rebound in the near term. One suspects “near term” means “whenever owners regain confidence”—which could be tomorrow or next year.
Maersk’s methanol ambitions
Maersk aims to deploy 19 methanol dual-fuel vessels by end-2025, according to Leonardo Sonzio, Head of Fleet Management and Technology at Maersk. The Danish giant also became the second major container carrier to reflag ships in India, with CEO Vincent Clerc detailing investment plans focusing on logistics and inland operations. Maersk confirmed interest in new port development in Panama, aiming to increase capacity.
The company continues betting heavily on alternative fuels whilst competitors hedge their bets. History will judge whether Maersk’s methanol strategy proves visionary or expensive.
Red Sea: Still thoroughly unpleasant
An LNG tanker caught fire off Yemen on 18 October after an explosion, with Houthis maintaining their maritime disruption campaign. Ocean carriers continue delaying their return to Red Sea routes, citing renewed attack risks and potential port congestion.
Piracy incidents increased in the Gulf of Guinea, with 15 cases in the first nine months of 2025 versus 12 in 2024. One incident of armed robbery occurred in Asia during 14–20 October. The global shipping market continues paying the Cape of Good Hope premium, adding weeks to voyage times and billions to operating costs.
IMO’s net-zero Framework: Postponed again
The International Maritime Organization postponed its net-zero Framework adoption for another year. Shipping accounts for roughly 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions—approximately one billion tonnes of CO₂ annually. The delay creates what analysts politely call “uncertainty” and what realists call “an excuse to keep burning cheap fuel.”
The industry struggles with the economics of clean fuels. Japan backed Uyeno Transtech’s hydrogen-ready oil tanker Kikou Maru with government financing—a first for the company. Nuclear propulsion gets occasional mentions, though one suspects maritime insurers might have opinions about floating reactors.
Greek shipping: The IMO delay winners
Greek shipowners greeted the IMO postponement with barely concealed delight. Their bet on conventionally fuelled vessels suddenly looks rather clever. Maritime Affairs Minister Vasilis Kikilias stated that shipping needs “international rules acceptable by all” rather than punitive mechanisms.
Three prominent Greek shipping women played crucial roles in the IMO decision: Melina Travlos (Union of Greek Shipowners President), Ioanna Procopiou, and Maria Angelicoussis (Angelicoussis Group CEO). Singapore submitted the postponement proposal during the 14–17 October IMO meeting. When Greek shipping speaks, the industry listens—or at least postpones decisions.
Greek newbuilding orders continue
Oceanbulk ordered two 3,100 TEU containerships from Zhoushan Changhong for 2027–2028 delivery. Alberta placed orders for two 1,900 TEU containerships at CSSC Guangzhou Huangpu Wenchong, with options for two more. Eastmed and Seanergy ordered bulker newbuilds from Hengli Heavy Industries.
Diana Shipping secured charter deals for two bulkers, with the Panamax fixture starting November 2025 at $11,750/day for minimum 13 months—up from $8,400. The m/v Semirio extended at $21,650/day from March 2026, up from $16,650. Someone at Diana clearly reads market signals, or charterers momentarily forgot how to price risk.
Greek coastal shipping and infrastructure
Greek coastal shipping proved resilient to operating cost increases, maintaining stable ferry ticket prices in 2025. The Ministry of Maritime Affairs reduced port fees by 50% from May 2025 to April 2026. Subsidies work wonders for consumer prices—until they don’t.
ONEX Shipyards in Syros announced a five-year investment programme exceeding $16.2 million for facility upgrades. Eleven German maritime companies visited Skaramangas Shipyards and Piraeus Port as part of a business mission.
From Piraeus to Shanghai, one truth endures: momentum, not certainty, keeps the industry afloat.