On March 26, 2025, Armenia’s parliament took a decisive step toward Europe, adopting the draft law “On the Launch of the Process of the Republic of Armenia’s Membership in the European Union” in its second and final reading. The ruling Civil Contract party secured passage with 64 votes, while the opposition “I Have Honor” bloc voted against and the “Armenia” faction abstained from participation.
The approved legislation underwent significant revisions before final passage. Most notably, the government removed language referencing “the will of the people”—a phrase that might have necessitated a national referendum. In its place, lawmakers substituted more technical language framing the move as an effort to “develop democratic institutions, increase societal well-being, and strengthen security.”
Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan was quick to temper expectations, clarifying that “this does not constitute a formal application for EU membership.” However, he emphasized the bill reflects “the aspirations of Armenian citizens to deepen partnership with the EU” while maintaining balanced foreign relations.
Russia’s reaction looms large
The vote comes amid growing tensions with Moscow, which has repeatedly warned that Armenia’s EU membership process would be incompatible with continued participation in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Just days before the parliamentary action, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk reiterated that “opening markets with the EU means closing them with the EAEU.”
Economic realities underscore the gravity of Armenia’s choice:
- 42% of Armenia’s total trade flows through EAEU countries.
- Over 300,000 Armenian workers in Russia sent home $1.4 billion in remittances last year.
- 65% of Armenia’s energy imports originate from Russia.
EU’s cautious response
In Brussels, reaction to the parliamentary vote has been measured. European Commission spokesperson Anita Hipper acknowledged the development but noted the EU would “analyze the legislation and consult with Armenian authorities.” The careful phrasing reflects Europe’s complex position—eager to expand influence in the South Caucasus but wary of provoking Moscow amid ongoing Ukraine tensions.
The EU has already taken concrete steps to deepen ties:
- €270 million in development aid pledged for 2024-2027.
- Visa liberalization dialogue launched in 2023.
- €10 million in non-lethal military assistance through the European Peace Facility.
Domestic political calculus
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan faces competing pressures at home. While recent polls show 68% of Armenians favor EU membership, many remain wary of abrupt breaks with Russia. The government’s decision to avoid referendum language suggests caution about fully committing to Europe before securing alternative energy and trade arrangements.
Opposition leader Artur Vanetsyan condemned the vote as “geopolitical suicide,” warning that, “Russia won’t let this stand without consequences.” Such rhetoric resonates with Armenia’s pro-Moscow minority—but for Pashinyan, the greater peril lies not in Russian threats, but in an unresolved trauma haunting Armenia’s borders: the specter of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Wildcard
The ghost of Nagorno-Karabakh looms over Armenia’s European pivot. Since Azerbaijan’s 2023 military takeover of the breakaway region—a move tacitly greenlit by Russia’s distracted Ukraine focus—Yerevan has viewed EU security guarantees as potential insurance against further Azeri advances. Brussels has cautiously responded with €10 million in non-lethal military aid through its European Peace Facility, while Moscow’s failure to protect its CSTO ally during the conflict shattered Armenian trust.
Yet Azerbaijan’s strategic position complicates matters. As a key energy supplier to Europe and close Turkish ally, Baku holds disproportionate influence over EU policy. The bloc’s delicate dance—condemning Azeri aggression while maintaining gas flows—leaves Armenia vulnerable. Meanwhile, Russia exploits the wound, warning that EU integration means abandoning Karabakh forever. For Pashinyan, the calculus is brutal: European promises remain theoretical, while Azeri drones on the border are lethally real.
What comes next
Analysts identify several key milestones ahead:
- Formal EU application—Likely after 2026 parliamentary elections.
- Russian countermeasures—Potential energy price hikes or remittance restrictions.
- Security realignment—Possible expansion of EU monitoring missions.
As former Armenian ambassador Ara Ayvazyan noted, “This vote opens a door, but walking through it will require navigating an obstacle course of Moscow’s making.” The coming months will test whether Yerevan’s European aspirations can withstand Russia’s economic leverage and the EU’s expansion fatigue.