Once tethered to the volatile southern routes through Pakistan, Afghanistan now stands at the epicenter of a silent but seismic shift in Eurasian trade. Border closures, regional rivalries, and the reverberations of global sanctions have forced Kabul into an unprecedented economic recalibration. Where dependency once defined its commerce, strategy now drives it—a reorientation that could redraw the economic geography of the entire region.
Recent analyses by Vlad P. and Nightingale Int. reveal how Afghanistan’s trade arteries are turning north and west, away from Pakistan and toward Iran and Central Asia. This transformation unfolds amid an era of unprecedented uncertainty in global logistics and political realignments that ripple through every corridor of trade.
Afghanistan’s trade reorientation: A response to regional instability
For decades, Afghanistan’s trade largely depended on its southern borders with Pakistan. However, escalating clashes and subsequent border closures since March 2024 have severely disrupted these lifelines. Vlad P. for Nightingale Int. notes that this has crippled Afghanistan’s trade with Pakistan by more than half, forcing Kabul to seek alternative economic pathways.
This reorientation has seen Iran emerge as Afghanistan’s primary trade partner. In 2024, Iranian exports to Afghanistan surged to $3.1 billion, a significant increase from $1.7 billion the previous year. This made Iran Kabul’s top trade partner, with shipments through Dogharoon rising by 25 percent year-on-year.
Crucially, Iran’s Chabahar port is transforming into a de-facto Afghan gateway to the sea. This strategic development strengthens Iran’s position amidst international sanctions, effectively turning economic pragmatism into geopolitical leverage. The significance of Chabahar is underscored by a 30% increase in the loading and unloading of goods during the first ten months of the Iranian calendar year (March 20, 2024 – January 19, 2025). India, Iran, and Afghanistan initially signed a trilateral agreement in 2016 to develop this port, providing New Delhi with access to Kabul and Central Asia.
Simultaneously, Russia has cemented its role as Afghanistan’s largest flour market, with imports valued at $80 million in 2024—double the previous year. Russian fuel and LPG exports have also surged, filling gaps left by Western market closures. Diplomatic and commercial engagement between Russia and Afghanistan accelerated following Russia’s delisting of the Taliban as a terrorist organization in April 2025, with Kabul inviting Russian firms into its mining and energy sectors.
Central Asian engagement: Pragmatism and economic bridge-building
Further north, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have actively stepped in to fill the trade vacuum created by the disruption of Afghan-Pakistani routes. These Central Asian nations are adopting a pragmatic, economic-first approach to engagement with the Taliban-led Afghanistan, minimizing ideological differences in favor of mutual economic benefits.
Uzbek-Afghan trade surpassed $1.1 billion in 2024, predominantly driven by Uzbek exports of fuel, flour, and basic goods. Uzbekistan views Afghanistan as a major market and a strategic transit corridor to South Asia, while Afghanistan sees Uzbekistan as a vital bridge to Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Russia. Bilateral trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan has shown significant growth, with projections suggesting a total of about $1.14 billion in 2024, aiming for $3 billion within three years.
“Uzbekistan’s exports to Afghanistan are primarily essential and infrastructure-oriented in nature. They consist largely of food products, energy resources, and industrial goods.”
Key to this integration are ambitious transport corridors. The proposed Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway is central to regional cooperation, with a 75-kilometer segment already completed. An alternative “western route” from Mazar-i-Sharif to Herat, linking with Iran’s railway network, is also under consideration due to persistent instability in Afghan-Pakistani relations. Afghanistan’s vast mineral reserves (lithium, cobalt, copper, uranium, estimated at $1–3 trillion) are also attracting regional partners, with Uzbekistan granted licenses for hydrocarbon exploration in October 2025.
Kazakhstan has also deepened its ties with Afghanistan, maintaining its embassy in Kabul after the Taliban’s takeover and adopting a balanced, pragmatic policy. Kazakhstan was the first in the region to remove the Taliban from its list of banned organizations and accredited IEA diplomats, setting a trend for rapprochement in Central Asia. Mutual trade between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan reached $636.5 million in 2024, with plans to increase it to $3 billion.
Global trade implications: A broader perspective
Afghanistan’s trade transformation is not unfolding in isolation—it reflects the tremors shaking the entire global trade system. The regional shifts observed in Afghanistan are symptomatic of broader trends impacting global commerce, where geopolitical rivalries and sanctions reshape not only routes but also relationships of dependency and influence.
Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Red Sea crisis, U.S.–China trade tensions, Russia sanctions) are profoundly impacting global supply chains, leading to altered trade patterns, rerouting, increased costs, longer journeys, and supply chain restructuring. Political instability is consistently ranked as a top risk for trade leaders.
Protectionist actions, new tariffs, and shifting trade alliances are forcing significant changes in trade lanes. Companies are increasingly seeking new partners and diversifying sourcing to circumvent higher tariffs, leading to lengthened supply chains and increased demand for smaller vessels and overland transport. This fragmentation of global trade underscores the challenges faced by infrastructure, which is under strain from disruptions and requires substantial investment in cleaner, more efficient, and smarter operations, alongside advancements in digitalization and cybersecurity.
In this sense, Afghanistan’s recalibration becomes a microcosm of how global trade is adapting under pressure—where local crises and global currents merge to redraw the map of connectivity and influence.
Interconnected destinies: Afghanistan’s recalibration and regional resilience
Afghanistan’s economic pivot is far more than a national adjustment—it is a symbol of a world in flux. Every rerouted convoy, every new customs link, every rail line to Iran or Uzbekistan reflects how global power balances are being rewritten not in summit halls but on dusty border crossings and desert highways.
The emergence of Chabahar as a lifeline, the Russian and Iranian resurgence in Afghan markets, and the Central Asian outreach together tell a larger story: that economic geography, when reshaped by necessity, becomes a form of geopolitical strategy. In this mosaic of shifting alliances, even landlocked nations can redraw maps of influence.
In essence, Afghanistan’s recalibration mirrors the planet’s broader struggle for resilience—where nations, constrained by politics and pressure, seek new paths to survival. The roads from Herat to Chabahar, or from Mazar to Termez, are not merely trade routes; they are testaments to adaptation in an age of uncertainty, proof that commerce remains the quiet architect of power.
And yet, beyond economics, Afghanistan’s transformation speaks to a deeper truth: that in a world where alliances fracture and empires fade, connectivity itself becomes a form of sovereignty. As old borders harden and new corridors emerge, Kabul’s turn to the north and west may not only secure its survival—it could redefine the very architecture of regional power across Eurasia.