Narendra Modi’s latest visit to Washington may have lacked the fireworks of a state visit, but it certainly delivered its share of calculated handshakes and pragmatic deals. Standing beside Donald Trump, Modi spoke of strengthening democracy, bolstering the Indo-Pacific, and deepening economic corridors. But as always with Trump, there’s a twist.
India left the summit with promises of military sales, oil and gas deals, and a renewed commitment to economic collaboration. Yet, these pledges came wrapped in Trump’s characteristic unpredictability. Reciprocal tariffs on India are set to kick in by April 2, a clear sign that the U.S. president views trade deficits as a personal affront rather than an economic metric.
The art of negotiation in the shadow of tariffs
The numbers tell a stark story. The U.S.-India trade deficit stands at $46 billion. Modi, ever the shrewd negotiator, pre-emptively reduced tariffs and threw in a few concessions—administrative spectrum allocation for satellite services and incentives for Tesla.
The logic was simple: if India greases the wheels for Elon Musk, perhaps Trump would look the other way on tariffs. Yet, history suggests that Trump, much like a casino owner collecting his dues, rarely leaves chips on the table. If tariffs on automobiles become his next fixation, expect a protracted battle.
The defense deals, too, reflect a strategic recalibration. India’s once-reliable supplier, Russia, is bogged down in Ukraine, causing delays in weapons deliveries. The U.S., sensing an opportunity, has dangled F-35s as bait. But India isn’t entirely convinced—the aircraft’s maintenance demands and the fine print of U.S. arms contracts raise more questions than answers.
The Indo-Mediterranean Corridor: A grand vision with shifting realities
Beyond bilateral ties, India’s growing engagement with the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean is reshaping regional geopolitics. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was unveiled with much fanfare last year, but Trump’s return casts a shadow of uncertainty. His disdain for multilateral projects and transactional approach to diplomacy mean that the corridor’s future hinges on how well it serves immediate American interests.
Interestingly, Trump himself has shown renewed interest in the IMEC corridor. In a post on the Truth Social platform, he shared a Breitbart News article where Greek Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Alexandra Papadopoulou and Cypriot Deputy Minister of Migration and International Protection Nicholas Ioannides discussed the strategic value of IMEC during a panel at the Delphi Forum in Washington, DC. Papadopoulou described the corridor as “an opportunity to be taken advantage of,” emphasizing Greece and Cyprus’s role as the “glue” connecting the region to the European Union through political stability, economic openness, and strong alliances with the U.S.
Ioannides, meanwhile, highlighted the success of the Abraham Accords under Trump’s first administration and expressed Cyprus’s readiness to be part of a revived process. Papadopoulou also noted her satisfaction with the “new, renewed American interest in the region,” underscoring the potential for IMEC to mirror China’s Belt and Road Initiative in its scope and impact.
On the other hand, Modi’s speech during his visit reinforced India’s commitment to connectivity through IMEC and the I2U2 grouping (India, Israel, UAE, U.S.). These initiatives aim to bypass Chinese influence and strengthen energy and trade routes. However, with Trump prioritizing U.S. oil and gas exports, India’s delicate balancing act with its energy suppliers may come under increasing pressure.
The Eastern Mediterranean: Greece, Israel, and the unstable power matrix
As India maneuvers through its strategic realignments, the Eastern Mediterranean finds itself at a crossroads. Greece, Cyprus, and Israel have been steadily reinforcing their trilateral cooperation, with energy and security at the heart of the equation.
On March 13, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis, after meeting with his Israeli and Cypriot counterparts, emphasized the urgency of regional cooperation. His call to expand the “3+1” format with the U.S. suggests Athens sees Washington as a stabilizing force—though one must wonder if that assumption holds under Trump 2.0.
Beyond diplomacy, energy remains the linchpin. The Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), a subsea electricity cable linking Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, marks a monumental step toward regional energy independence. Gerapetritis firmly stated that the project “will happen and will be completed,” assuring that it will be delivered as planned—despite predictable Turkish objections.
The missing certainty in an era of unpredictability
If there is one lesson to be drawn from Modi’s visit to Washington, it is that strategic patience remains India’s greatest asset. Trump’s transactionalism, his penchant for springing tariff surprises, and his tendency to test the limits of allied relationships all signal a bumpy road ahead.
For Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, the shifting dynamics of global energy and trade corridors require a similar degree of adaptability. The Eastern Mediterranean’s embrace of connectivity—whether through electricity interconnections or defense alignments—makes strategic sense. But as India’s own experience with Trump illustrates, no partnership is truly immune to the tides of political expediency.