The intricate tapestry of Canada–China relations presents a formidable challenge for Ottawa, particularly as the geopolitical currents intensify the rivalry between the United States and China. This complex dynamic necessitates a departure from conventional approaches, demanding instead a pragmatic and nuanced strategy. This article delves into the concept of “selective engagement” as a foundational principle for Canada’s foreign policy, aiming to navigate the treacherous waters of global power competition while safeguarding national interests.
This analysis draws heavily from the insightful discussion paper, “Between the Eagle and the Dragon: Managing Canada–China Relations in a Shifting Geopolitical Reality,” authored by the Expert Group on Canada–U.S. Relations for the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. Their collective wisdom provides a robust framework for understanding the evolving landscape and charting a judicious course forward.
The evolution of Canada–China relations
For a considerable period, Canadian foreign policy towards China was predicated on a rather optimistic, if somewhat naive, premise: that economic engagement would inexorably lead to political liberalization within the Chinese state. This notion, deeply embedded in the broader theory of convergence, posited that increased trade and interaction would, by some unseen hand, erode authoritarian structures and usher in an era of democratic reform. It was a view, one might recall, that found considerable favour among Western policymakers, a testament perhaps to their enduring faith in the transformative power of commerce.
However, reality, as it often does, proved to be a rather inconvenient truth. Despite the earnest efforts of Canada and its Western counterparts to expand trade, facilitate educational exchanges, and even offer technical training to Chinese officials, the anticipated metamorphosis never quite materialised. Instead, the Communist Party of China (CPC), with a remarkable display of resilience, merely tightened its grip on power, intensified its surveillance apparatus, and vigorously promoted its own distinct model of authoritarian capitalism. The expectation that engagement would inevitably steer China towards liberal democratic values has, to put it mildly, been thoroughly disproven. One might even suggest it was a triumph of hope over experience, a common enough failing in foreign policy circles.
This rather stark realization has, quite rightly, prompted a significant re-evaluation within Canadian foreign policy circles. It has underscored the pressing need for a new strategic framework, one that is firmly rooted in pragmatism, anchored by Canadian interests and values, and, crucially, built upon the principles of selective engagement. Recent diplomatic overtures, such as the telephone conversation between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Foreign Minister Anita Anand’s meeting with her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, serve as tangible indicators of this evolving approach. These high-level engagements, while perhaps not earth-shattering in their immediate impact, nonetheless signify a deliberate recalibration of Canada China relations, moving towards increased dialogue and, where feasible, cooperation.
Five key principles of selective engagement
In navigating the intricate geopolitical currents that define Canada China relations, a judicious application of selective engagement becomes paramount. This approach, far from being a mere theoretical construct, is underpinned by five core principles, each designed to ensure Canada’s sovereignty and strategic efficacy in an increasingly complex global arena. These principles, meticulously outlined in the Expert Group’s paper, offer a blueprint for a foreign policy that is both robust and adaptable.
1. Safeguard strategic autonomy
Canada, as a sovereign nation, must retain its capacity to formulate and execute an independent and clearly defined strategy towards China. This involves a clear delineation of non-negotiable interests—the proverbial “red lines”—while simultaneously fostering trade in sectors where Canada possesses a distinct global competitive advantage, such as agriculture and energy. These vital sectors, it is argued, must remain insulated from the broader geopolitical vicissitudes, including the often-tempestuous negotiations with the United States. Their stability is not merely an economic desideratum but a cornerstone of Canada’s international reputation as a reliable supplier. It is also worth noting, for the benefit of those in Beijing, that Canada’s primary exports are bulk commodities, readily traded on global markets, with alternative buyers often available. This stands in stark contrast to, say, automotive exports to the United States, for which no comparable alternative market exists. Should China persist in its rather unhelpful habit of weaponizing trade, Canada, with a sigh of resignation, will find itself compelled to diversify away from, rather than towards, the Chinese market.
2. Maintain an interest-based approach
Canada needs to forge its own distinct policy, which, while independent, need not be antithetical to that of the U.S. The notion that Canadian alignment with U.S. policy on China is a given, or indeed a foregone conclusion, is a fallacy that must be dispelled. Instead, Canada ought to adopt a foreign policy rooted firmly in its own national interests, aligning with Washington’s positions only when they demonstrably serve Canadian objectives, and, with a polite but firm resolve, standing its ground when they do not. This posture is not merely an assertion of national pride; it is a pragmatic necessity. It preserves Canadian autonomy and significantly reduces the likelihood of Canada being inadvertently drawn into, or indeed leveraged as a proxy in, the broader U.S.–China geostrategic competition. Just as the United States, quite rightly, crafts its China policy based on its own perceived interests, so too should Canada engage independently with China to advance its own priorities, collaborating with others, including the United States, when interests converge.
3. Caution in leveraging China relations
While the rather disruptive actions of the Trump administration might tempt Canadian policymakers to employ China as a strategic “card” in negotiations with the United States—perhaps by hinting at market diversions or tariff adjustments—such manoeuvres should be approached with extreme circumspection, particularly concerning issues of national and international security that directly impinge upon the relationship with the United States. The prospect of opening Canadian markets to Chinese automotive imports, for instance, while potentially influencing U.S. behaviour, carries with it the distinct risk of significant backlash from Washington. Such measures, if considered at all, should be reserved for truly extraordinary circumstances and deployed only as a last resort. A more judicious approach, one might suggest, is for Canada to underscore the rather self-defeating nature of the U.S. closing its market to other nations, thereby inadvertently compelling its trading partners to seek alternative commercial relationships.
4. Promote trilateral and multilateral cooperation
To address unfair trading practices, Canada should champion the development and implementation of trilateral mechanisms with the United States and Mexico, focusing on monitoring and counteracting actions by external actors, notably China. Drawing inspiration from similar actions undertaken by the European Union, these frameworks can be judiciously adapted to the North American context.
Furthermore, Canada ought to lead efforts to fortify economic coalitions, particularly between the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the European Union. The objective here is to forge a robust common front, dedicated to promoting fair trade rules, upholding high regulatory standards, and establishing effective remedies against market distortions. Such collaborative measures, undertaken by nations that still cling to the quaint notion of the rule of law in international trade, are more vital than ever, especially given the Trump administration’s rather regrettable penchant for unilateralism and its increasing reliance on tariffs as a blunt political instrument.
5. Enhance strategic communication and public engagement
To enhance strategic communication and public engagement, Canada must cultivate a more sophisticated, transparent, and fact-based public communications strategy concerning its relations with China and the attendant trade decisions. This approach is not merely a matter of good governance; it is a strategic imperative, necessary to counteract the pervasive misconceptions and external interference, particularly from Beijing, that can undermine policy coherence. The government should actively foster an informed public discourse and cultivate support for Canada’s policies by clearly articulating the strategic rationale underpinning Canada’s sectoral priorities, including those in nascent sectors such as critical minerals. However, it must be acknowledged that, given the considerable damage inflicted upon China’s public and media image in Canada over the past decade, the arduous task of rebuilding mutual confidence will, by necessity, be a gradual process.
Challenges and prospects for Canada–China relations
While the framework of selective engagement offers a robust conceptual underpinning for Canada–China relations, its practical application is not without its considerable challenges. The relationship is, after all, fraught with complexities that demand constant vigilance and a clear-eyed assessment of realities. One of the most pressing concerns revolves around Beijing’s persistent attempts to intimidate Chinese Canadians and to stifle dissent through various means, including threats, harassment, and outright coercion. Canada must, without equivocation, convey to Beijing that such actions will be met with the full force of Canadian law and unequivocal international condemnation. This is not merely a matter of domestic legal principle but a fundamental assertion of sovereignty and the protection of its citizens.
Strengthening security and alliances
Furthermore, China’s burgeoning capabilities and increasingly assertive posture, particularly in the cyber domain, underscore the critical importance of Canada’s defence and cyber cooperation with its traditional allies, namely the United States and Europe. This necessitates a continuous strengthening of alliance partnerships, extending beyond the immediate transatlantic sphere to include key regional players such as Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and, of course, Australia and New Zealand, both of whom are integral members of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Such collaborative efforts are not merely a matter of convenience but a strategic imperative in an era where digital vulnerabilities can have profound national security implications.
Protecting innovation and economic sovereignty
Another area demanding unwavering resolve is the protection of intellectual property and the integrity of Canada’s research and educational institutions. Canada must adopt a zero-tolerance approach to the theft of intellectual property and any attempts by Chinese state interests to infiltrate these vital sectors. The long-term economic and strategic well-being of Canada hinges on its ability to safeguard its innovation ecosystem from illicit appropriation. Moreover, the volatile nature of relations between the United States and China, particularly under the protectionist agenda of a potential second Trump administration, means Canada must assiduously preserve its capacity to make policy decisions based solely on its own interests and values. Automatic alignment with Washington, without due consideration for Canada’s specific needs, would not only erode Canadian autonomy but could prove to be an economically costly exercise. It would be rather imprudent, for instance, for Canada to simply mirror US tariff walls against China without a careful assessment of its own unique economic landscape.
However, it is equally important to acknowledge that Canada’s most significant security and commercial relationship remains, and will continue to be, with the United States. Coordination with its neighbour is eminently sensible where common interests converge. Nevertheless, Ottawa must define its own distinct “red lines” and apply a consistent, interest-based framework to protect key sectors, including energy, steel, aluminum, lumber, critical minerals, and agriculture. The relationship with China, therefore, must be defined not by the lingering illusions of a bygone era but by the stark realities of the present. China, it is now abundantly clear, is not liberalizing, and mere engagement will not alter this fundamental fact. Yet, complete disengagement is neither a feasible nor a desirable outcome. Selective engagement, therefore, emerges as the pragmatic way forward: a strategy that robustly defends core interests, judiciously leverages economic opportunities, and, crucially, preserves Canada’s sovereignty in an era characterized by intensifying great-power rivalry.
Shaping Canada’s destiny in the Dragon’s shadow
In summation, the judicious application of selective engagement stands as the most prudent course for Canada in its complex dealings with China. This approach, far from being a mere theoretical construct, offers a pragmatic framework for safeguarding Canada’s vital interests in a global arena increasingly defined by intense geopolitical competition. It demands a clear-eyed assessment of realities, an unwavering commitment to national values, and a strategic agility that allows for both cooperation and firm resolve when circumstances dictate. Ultimately, Canada’s success in this intricate geopolitical dance will hinge upon its capacity for realism and its inherent adaptability. By embracing selective engagement, Ottawa can affirm its position as a sovereign actor, capable of navigating the currents of a dynamic international order while steadfastly protecting its own distinct identity and prosperity.