The era of China’s insatiable oil thirst appears to be drawing to a close, and frankly, it’s about time the rest of Asia had a proper go at keeping the tanker markets busy. After three decades of hoovering up roughly half of all global oil demand growth, the Middle Kingdom is showing signs of what industry veterans might politely call “demand fatigue”—though the reality is rather more dramatic than such euphemisms suggest.
Recent data from China National Petroleum Corp reveals that road fuel sales peaked in 2023, with projections indicating a precipitous 25-40% decline over the next decade. Sinopec, China’s largest refiner, has rather unceremoniously brought forward its peak oil consumption forecast to 2027, a move that would have been unthinkable just five years ago. The culprits behind this transformation are as predictable as they are unstoppable: electric vehicles now account for 38.5% of new car sales, while the country’s ongoing property crisis has dampened diesel demand from construction machinery.
India takes centre stage
But while China’s oil appetite diminishes, a new cast of characters is stepping onto the global stage with considerable gusto. India, that perennial “emerging market” that has finally decided to emerge properly, is leading this charge with characteristic determination. The subcontinent is projected to account for 25% of global oil consumption growth between 2024 and 2025, adding approximately 330,000 barrels per day to its daily diet. By 2030, India’s oil consumption is expected to surge by one million barrels daily, a figure that would make even the most seasoned oil trader pause for thought.
Yet India, impressive as its growth trajectory may be, is not operating in isolation. The real story lies in the collective awakening of Southeast Asia’s Tiger Cubs—Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam—nations that have spent decades in China’s economic shadow but are now asserting their own considerable appetites for petroleum products. These economies are projected to add 1.3 million barrels per day by 2030, driven primarily by diesel-intensive sectors and the burgeoning aviation fuel market as their middle classes discover the joys of international travel.
Manufacturing migration fuels demand
The Tiger Cubs phenomenon represents more than mere statistical growth; it embodies a fundamental restructuring of global supply chains. As multinational corporations diversify their manufacturing bases away from China—a process accelerated by recent geopolitical tensions—these Southeast Asian nations are becoming the new centres of nearshoring activity. This industrial migration brings with it substantial energy requirements, particularly for diesel-powered heavy machinery and the petrochemicals essential for manufacturing processes.
From a tanker market perspective, these developments are nothing short of revolutionary. The traditional China-centric trade flows that have dominated the past three decades are giving way to a more distributed pattern of demand. Long-haul routes from the Atlantic Basin to Asia are experiencing renewed vigour, while medium-haul trades from the Middle East are being redirected towards India and the Tiger Cubs rather than Chinese ports. This geographical redistribution of oil flows represents a first-class opportunity for tanker owners willing to adapt their operational strategies.
Vessel deployment strategies evolve
The implications for vessel deployment are particularly intriguing. While China’s import terminals have become accustomed to handling massive Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the Tiger Cubs’ infrastructure often favours smaller vessel classes. This shift towards Suezmax and Aframax tankers could potentially tighten supply in these segments while creating oversupply in the VLCC market—a development that astute shipowners are already factoring into their newbuilding programmes.
Meanwhile, the oil price environment is providing its own commentary on these structural changes. Brent crude has exhibited remarkable stability throughout 2024, trading within a relatively narrow band between $74 and $90 per barrel—a range that would have seemed impossibly tight just a few years ago. This stability reflects the market’s growing confidence that OPEC+ spare capacity of 5–6 million barrels per day can adequately buffer any supply disruptions, while simultaneously acknowledging that demand growth is becoming increasingly predictable as it shifts from China’s volatile industrial cycles to the more steady consumption patterns of the Tiger Cubs.
Market dynamics reflect new realities
The International Energy Agency’s latest forecasts paint a picture of measured optimism tempered by realistic expectations. Global oil demand growth is projected at a modest 700,000 barrels per day in 2025—the lowest rate since 2009, excluding the pandemic year. This deceleration reflects not just China’s plateau but also the broader energy transition taking place across developed economies. Electric vehicle adoption, improved fuel efficiency standards, and the gradual shift towards renewable energy sources are all contributing to a more restrained growth trajectory.
Yet within this global moderation lies considerable regional variation. While China grapples with the twin challenges of economic slowdown and energy transition, the Tiger Cubs are experiencing the kind of robust, oil-intensive growth that characterised China’s own development three decades ago. Indonesia’s expanding petrochemical sector, Thailand’s growing aviation market, and Vietnam’s burgeoning manufacturing base all point towards sustained petroleum demand growth well into the next decade.
Capital flows follow demand patterns
The financial markets have taken note of these shifts with characteristic pragmatism. Oil companies are adjusting their capital expenditure programmes to reflect the new geography of demand, while tanker operators are repositioning their fleets to capture emerging trade flows. The $500 billion that the industry spends annually on exploration and development is increasingly being directed towards projects that can serve the Tiger Cubs’ growing appetites rather than China’s plateauing consumption.
This transformation extends beyond mere commercial considerations to encompass broader geopolitical implications. China’s diminishing oil import requirements reduce its strategic vulnerability while simultaneously decreasing its influence over global energy markets. Conversely, the Tiger Cubs’ growing dependence on imported petroleum enhances their strategic importance and potentially complicates regional security calculations.
Industry adaptation accelerates
The tanker industry, ever adaptable to changing trade patterns, is already responding to these new realities. Shipping companies are establishing stronger commercial relationships with Indian and Southeast Asian charterers while adjusting their vessel positioning strategies to capture the emerging trade flows. The days when a successful tanker operation could be built solely around serving Chinese demand are rapidly becoming a historical curiosity.
As we survey this evolving landscape, one cannot help but appreciate the elegant irony of the situation. China, having spent three decades as the world’s most voracious oil consumer, now finds itself in the peculiar position of watching its former economic dependents assume the mantle of demand growth. The Tiger Cubs, meanwhile, are discovering that economic development comes with its own particular thirst for petroleum products—a lesson that China learned rather thoroughly during its own remarkable ascent.
The transformation of global oil demand patterns represents more than a simple changing of the guard; it signals the emergence of a more multipolar energy world where no single nation dominates consumption growth. For tanker markets, this evolution promises both challenges and opportunities as trade flows adapt to serve new centres of demand. The industry’s ability to capitalise on these changes will depend largely on its capacity to understand and respond to the distinct characteristics of each Tiger Cubs market while maintaining the operational flexibility necessary to serve an increasingly diverse customer base.