The recent escalation of tension in the Middle East, with the sudden declaration of war by the U.S. and Israel against the Iranian theocratic regime and the fierce hostilities of the last twenty-five days, with the involvement of Hezbollah in Lebanon, at a time when the other Persian Gulf countries are attempting to intercept the retaliation of Tehran’s ballistic attacks on the American bases they host on their territory, on the one hand highlights the complex geopolitical balances in the wider region; on the other hand, it creates an additional “crack” in the fragile illusion of stability and regional security.
This chaotic situation, which tends to turn into a regional conflict with the participation of forces that aim to increase their sphere of influence in critical oil hubs, may further destabilize the existing vulnerable geopolitical scenario, causing “suffocation” in the global energy market and, above all, enormous humanitarian consequences by triggering another wave of displaced persons, who will reasonably seek refuge away from the conflict zones.
Migration patterns and Greece’s frontline role
As happened in the recent past with the Syrian civil war and, earlier, with the collapse of the Hussein and Gaddafi regimes, displaced persons may initially head towards the Mediterranean and eventually towards Europe, with obvious consequences for Greece, which, due to its geographical location, is on the front line. After all, our country, as a gateway to the southeastern borders of Europe, was the first to experience the overwhelming flows of the 2015 migration crisis, comparable to those of the Second World War.
At a time when the civil war in Sudan is intensifying and successive military coups are plaguing Sahel countries such as Mali and Niger, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is peaking, the Russian-Ukrainian war is already in its fifth year, the Taliban have now consolidated their rule in their country, claiming de facto international recognition of their obscurantist regime, and the mullahs of Iran remain “anchored” in power.
Multiple migration routes and systemic pressure
Under these circumstances, Greece is faced with the ominous prospect of new migratory flows in the medium to long term. However, in contrast to the past, when flows were directed to Greek territory exclusively through Türkiye, there is now the risk of multiple fronts and the creation of a migratory arc, with simultaneous arrivals from Libya, Türkiye, and the Greek northern border.
The combination of ongoing parallel large-scale conflicts in different geographical zones, the political instability they cause, and the consequent humanitarian despair shapes the gloomy canvas of an undesirable development, during which our country will find itself in the eye of the cyclone of successive mass arrivals from different parts of the planet. If, as is customary, illegal economic migrants also join them, seeking to take advantage of the current situation, it is easy to understand the magnitude of the migratory burden that Greece will be called upon to bear as a host country.
Lessons from the past and critical questions ahead
In the past, accommodation structures and the Hellenic asylum system were overwhelmed, the inadequate infrastructure of local societies exhausted their limits, tragically understaffed state services collapsed, and the social fabric was torn apart — sometimes due to the lack of a realistic plan for managing the phenomenon and sometimes due to the uncontrolled volume of arrivals, which, although objectively unmanageable, was consciously attracted by specific decision-making centers through open-border policies, presented as the supposed panacea for eliminating all forms of “pathogenicity” in the Western world.
Since experience shows that wars and subsequent crises do not remain confined to the regions where they begin, the conflicts currently unfolding in various parts of the world serve as a warning for Europe and a field for reflection, raising a series of truly critical questions: Is Greece prepared to effectively manage a potential future wave of displaced persons, avoiding the shameful images of Moria and Idomeni? Correspondingly, how willing is Europe to support it in practice, especially in view of the imminent implementation of the new Pact on Migration and Asylum?
Will Türkiye continue to cooperate with the Greek authorities in managing maritime flows in the eastern Aegean, or will it revert to past practices of instrumentalizing illegal immigration, as it unsuccessfully attempted to do in March 2020? Will the EU succeed in restoring diplomatic relations with the regime in eastern Libya by acting as a barrier to flows passing through the African continent? And to what extent can a similar project centered on Kabul bear fruit, taking into account the specificities there that contradict the fundamental principles of the European way of life?
Preparedness amid uncertainty
Once again, Greece is at the crossroads of geography and geopolitics. Whether we are headed for a new crisis or a last-minute de-escalation remains uncertain.
Strategic preparedness is no longer a theoretical exercise but an urgent national and European priority. In any case, we must be prepared for the worst, because only in this way can we keep our hopes for a better and safer future alive.
English reprint of an earlier article published in the daily digital newspaper Political on 17/03/2026, entitled: “Storm on the horizon” (Kategida ston orizonta).
Disclaimer
This article expresses the author’s personal views and does not reflect the official position of the Greek State, the Public Administration, or the EUAA.
* Marios Kaleas is the General Director of the Greek Asylum Service and Chairperson of the Management Board of the European Agency for Asylum (EUAA).