The week ending 30 October brought into sharper focus the increasingly fragmented nature of the Ultramax and Handysize markets, with freight performance diverging across the principal trading basins and the balance of negotiating power shifting according to regional tonnage availability and cargo demand. While the Atlantic continued to face mounting pressure, particularly across the Ultramax sector, the Far East maintained a comparatively resilient footing, with modern and well-positioned Handysize vessels continuing to command firm rates. Meanwhile, persistent instability in the Middle East and Red Sea remained an important consideration in owners’ deployment decisions, influencing both vessel positioning and the economics of regional employment.
The most notable development was the broad-based correction across the South Atlantic, U.S. Gulf and West Coast South America, where subdued fresh enquiry and an increasingly substantial tonnage list progressively weakened owners’ negotiating positions. The Handysize segment, although more resilient in selected regions, was not entirely insulated from these pressures, with the South American market beginning to lose momentum after several weeks of particularly firm activity. By contrast, the U.S. Gulf, Continent and Far East continued to offer comparatively attractive opportunities for suitably positioned vessels, supported by tighter prompt availability, more consistent cargo enquiry or a favourable balance between supply and demand.
Against this backdrop, the market is moving into November without a clear indication of a synchronised recovery, making geographical positioning, cargo visibility and vessel suitability increasingly decisive factors in determining achievable earnings. The distinction between prompt spot employment and forward period opportunities is also becoming more pronounced, reinforcing the importance of disciplined chartering decisions and a flexible commercial approach.
South Atlantic | The tide turns as tonnage builds
Ultramax: charterers seize the advantage
The South Atlantic experienced a noticeable correction during the week, with freight rates coming under pressure across most routes as fresh enquiry remained limited and the growing number of available vessels gradually shifted the balance in charterers’ favour. Transatlantic employment surrendered some of its previous strength, while Fronthaul business remained under pressure, partly reflecting the weaker Panamax market, which continues to absorb cargoes that would otherwise have been suitable for Ultramax tonnage.
At the same time, the exceptionally firm Handysize market has begun to exert a wider influence across the smaller geared segments, with some Supramax vessels now securing Handysize-sized cargoes, thereby adding another dimension to the competition for available employment. West Africa also softened, particularly on Fronthaul routes, leaving the overall South Atlantic market with a distinctly weaker undertone.
Handysize: the November peak gives way to pressure
The Handysize market has likewise begun to show signs of moderation, with the 1–10 November loading window appearing to have marked the high point of recent fixing activity. Most immediate cargo requirements have now been covered or backstopped, while increasing competition from Supramax and Ultramax vessels is beginning to weigh on Handysize sentiment.
Although the full impact of the sluggish larger-size market has yet to filter through to the smaller segment, the absence of fresh urgency is becoming increasingly evident. Market attention is therefore shifting towards requirements for 10 November onwards, with the next wave of cargo enquiry likely to determine whether owners can preserve the levels achieved during the preceding weeks. Until that demand materialises, freight rates may struggle to advance, particularly as the basin becomes progressively more exposed to any further accumulation of available tonnage.
U.S. Gulf | Two segments, opposite directions
Ultramax: rates slip below $30,000
The U.S. Gulf endured another week of declining freight levels across all major Ultramax routes, as an accumulation of available tonnage pushed both Transatlantic and Fronthaul rates below the $30,000-per-day threshold. Unlike the preceding week, when North Coast South America (NCSA) provided some support to regional activity, this source of demand was notably absent, while the lack of meaningful grain Fronthaul liquidity forced some otherwise clean vessels to consider Transatlantic employment instead.
Towards the close of the week, however, a fresh influx of grain Transatlantic stems for November and December offered the prospect of greater stability in the period ahead. This development should be viewed with some caution, as November is already trading down to spot levels and the newly emerging requirements are consequently being priced at a discount. The immediate market tone therefore remains somewhat bearish as the new week approaches, although the additional grain business may help prevent a more pronounced deterioration if it translates into sustained fixing activity.
Handysize: tightening supply supports earnings
The U.S. Gulf Handysize market followed a rather different course, recording a particularly active week as demand improved against the subdued conditions of the preceding fortnight. Most available cargoes appear to have secured tonnage, especially along the U.S. East Coast, where the supply of suitable vessels has become tighter.
The gradual departure of vessels from the U.S. Gulf has further contributed to this changing balance, with several ships ballasting from New Orleans towards North Brazil in search of better-paying employment. At the same time, demand is beginning to build across both Transatlantic and inter-Gulf routes, suggesting that the improvement is not confined to a single trading direction.
Provided this strengthening cargo demand continues and vessel availability contracts even marginally, the Handysize market should be capable of delivering further improvement during the coming week, in contrast to the more challenging conditions confronting the larger geared segment.
West Coast South America | The rally loses steam
Ultramax: charterers regain ground
The West Coast South America Ultramax market showed its first meaningful signs of softening during the week, as fixing activity remained subdued and the upward momentum that had characterised previous trading periods began to fade. Although NOPAC and ECSA employment continued to provide some underlying support, owners increasingly struggled to defend recently achieved freight levels, particularly as most requirements for the 1–10 November loading window had already been covered.
Concentrate demand remained limited, while available salt cargoes attracted only selective interest amid continuing uncertainty surrounding the Panama Canal. With November positions gradually building and fresh cargo enquiry yet to materialise, the balance is shifting towards charterers, whose negotiating position is being strengthened by the increasing availability of prompt tonnage.
Handysize: the rally fades
The West Coast South America Handysize market has also begun to lose momentum following several weeks of firm activity, as the completion of most requirements for the 1–10 November window has been followed by a considerable slowdown in fresh enquiry and the emergence of an increasing number of November vessel openings.
Charterers are demonstrating greater resistance to the freight levels established during the stronger preceding period, particularly when considering vessels with less favourable geographical positions. Although Ultramax earnings continue to provide some underlying support to the smaller segment, the widening availability of Handysize tonnage, combined with limited fresh cargo demand, points towards a softer trading environment in which downward pressure on freight rates is likely to become more pronounced.
Continent | Resilience meets consolidation
Ultramax: stronger bids sustain resilience
The Continent Ultramax market maintained a firm footing throughout the week, with relatively limited movement in the overall balance between vessel supply and cargo demand. Activity was initially subdued, but the tone improved from Wednesday onwards as charterers began revising their bids upwards, reflecting stronger competition for suitable vessels.
Demand was particularly supportive for vessels opening during the second week of November, while prompt tonnage remained relatively well supplied. The market therefore continues to demonstrate resilience, although the availability of immediate positions remains an important consideration in assessing the sustainability of current freight levels.
Handymax: grain demand keeps rates firm
The Continent Handymax market also remained firm, although some fixtures were concluded marginally below the levels achieved during the previous week. Prompt tonnage continues to be relatively tight, whereas the supply position for later November dates is more balanced, creating a somewhat different negotiating environment depending on the vessel’s opening position.
Active grain pricing has continued to underpin the market, while the arrival of additional vessels from the Western Mediterranean, including tonnage positioning from France, has contributed to the available trading activity and helped maintain market liquidity.
Nevertheless, sentiment remains somewhat divided, with some market participants believing that the market may be approaching a natural pause following its recent strength. Freight levels remain firm for the time being, although it remains to be seen whether this softer undertone develops into a more substantial correction or simply represents a period of consolidation before the next round of cargo demand.
Mediterranean & Black Sea | A two-speed market
Ultramax: Black Sea strength defies softer demand
Available Ultramax tonnage remained relatively limited throughout the week, yet the thinner flow of prompt cargo enquiry was sufficient to bring spot freight levels under pressure across most of the Mediterranean region. The Black Sea provided the notable exception, where healthy cargo demand, combined with continuing security concerns, encouraged charterers to improve their bids and supported stronger fixing levels.
The resulting divergence highlights the extent to which local cargo availability and security-related considerations continue to influence the regional freight market, with the broader Mediterranean unable to replicate the strength observed in the Black Sea.
Handymax: grain and backhauls underpin rates
The Black Sea generated a substantial volume of grain cargo stems for prompt shipment through 10 November, attracting considerable attention from owners and charterers alike. The combination of healthy cargo availability and ongoing security concerns contributed to stronger numbers being concluded, although the strength evident in the immediate spot market was not fully reflected in further-forward requirements, where charterers showed limited willingness to commit at the same levels.
The Eastern Mediterranean also recorded a satisfactory volume of business, primarily through Backhaul employment, providing additional support to local freight conditions. Meanwhile, the available tonnage list contracted during the week, despite remaining relatively substantial in absolute terms, leaving a shortage of suitable candidates for certain prompt loading dates.
The Western Mediterranean, by contrast, experienced less traction on the demand side, although the region continued to benefit from ECSA and Continent employment, which helped absorb available tonnage and provided some support to the wider market.
Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa | Risk reshapes deployment
Ultramax: China redelivery commands a premium
Persistent instability across the Middle East Gulf and Red Sea continues to make shipowners cautious about vessel deployment, as potential exposure to heightened security risks and the associated additional expenses remain important considerations during charter negotiations. Across the wider Indian Ocean, owners are increasingly demonstrating a preference for employment towards the Far East, where market conditions remain comparatively stronger.
On the West Coast of India, a Supramax was fixed at approximately $10,000 per day DOP for a voyage to China. For a comparable voyage to South Korea, Ultramax vessels can achieve considerably better returns, in the mid-to-high $10,000s, reflecting the requirement for RightShip compliance.
On the Oman–West Coast India route, Supramax fixtures are being concluded in the upper $10,000s per day, basis DOP West Coast India, while Ultramax vessels are achieving levels in the low $20,000s. Backhaul voyages towards the Atlantic continue to command approximately $14,000–15,000 per day for Ultramax tonnage.
For the Oman–East Coast India route, a Supramax fixture was reported at approximately $17,000 per day APS Salalah, while an Ultramax was fixed in the mid-to-high $10,000s per day, with delivery APS West Coast India, for a voyage to Bangladesh.
On the East Coast of India, fresh cargo enquiry remained limited during the final days of the week, prompting some owners to consider ballasting towards Singapore, while others explored opportunities in Australian round voyages and the South African market. A Supramax vessel was fixed in the low $20,000s per day for an intra-East Coast India coastal voyage, while Ultramax vessels were also reported fixed in the low $20,000s for voyages via Indonesia and back to India.
The East Coast India–China iron ore trade, meanwhile, maintained levels broadly in line with the previous week, with Supramax rates remaining in the low-to-mid $10,000s and Ultramax rates in the mid-to-high $10,000s.
South Africa recorded a degree of activity, although there were no indications of a meaningful improvement in freight levels compared with the preceding week. A 60,000 dwt vessel was fixed in the mid-$20,000s per day, plus an equivalent ballast bonus, for a voyage to Sri Lanka, while another 63,000 dwt vessel secured slightly higher levels for a voyage to the East Coast of India. A well-described 58,000 dwt vessel was also fixed in the low-to-mid $20,000s per day, together with an equivalent ballast bonus, for a voyage to Full India.
An important feature of the current trading environment remains owners’ preference for China redelivery, which continues to sustain a premium for India-bound voyages over comparable employment towards China. This preference, together with security-related deployment considerations, is helping shape the geographical distribution of available tonnage across the Indian Ocean.
Handysize: steel tenders offer fresh support
The Indian Ocean Handysize market experienced a relatively quiet week, with demand remaining subdued while the available tonnage list continued to build, keeping freight levels broadly flat to slightly weaker. Towards the end of the reporting period, however, a number of fresh steel tenders entered the market, bringing some much-needed activity and offering a potential source of support for the coming days.
Far East & Southeast Asia | Owners hold the advantage
Ultramax: northbound strength, southern slowdown
In the northern Far East, a Supramax vessel opening CJK was fixed at $28,000 per day for a North Pacific/Bangladesh voyage, confirming charterers’ continued willingness to pay up for employment in that direction.
On the supply side, Supramax vessels opening North China were seen holding ideas in the $22,000s per day, increasing to $25,000–26,000 for West Africa and $30,000–32,000 for Mediterranean employment, against owners’ offers of up to $35,000. The considerable spread between the bid and offer levels for Mediterranean voyages suggests that owners are continuing to test the market at higher rates, although the extent to which charterers are prepared to follow remains uncertain.
Period activity during the week reflected a preference among owners for shorter durations, where freight levels remain strongest, while Backhaul demand was steady, with two requirements for deck-equipped vessels carrying 2 × 25-tonne cranes emerging from South Korea and North China.
Further south, the market experienced a quieter week, with fresh fixtures thinning noticeably towards the end of the reporting period. Clinker business out of Chittagong remained firm, with a $35,000-per-day offer for Phu My and a $31,000-per-day offer for Qinzhou against a $28,000 holding. Nevertheless, the earlier bid-offer structure of $32,000 versus $26,000 eased slightly, suggesting some moderation in the intensity of chartering competition.
Period indications remained within the $23,000–25,000-per-day range for employment of four to six months, with $23,000 seen and $25,000 guided, alongside an additional five-to-seven-month offer at $25,000. Overall, activity slowed towards the end of the week, with most requirements carried over from the previous day and only a handful of fresh vessels entering the market.
Far East Handysize: cargo demand strengthens owners’ hand
The Far East Handysize market maintained its momentum, with sentiment remaining firm and the relationship between available tonnage and cargo enquiry continuing to reflect a relatively balanced position. Nevertheless, the increasing number of voyage cargoes entering the market is gradually shifting the negotiating balance in owners’ favour, providing additional support to freight levels.
Handysize vessels in the 33,000–38,000 dwt range are achieving approximately $18,000–19,000 per day DOP for southbound voyages. With fresh enquiry continuing to build throughout November and a growing number of voyage cargoes becoming available, the market appears well placed to maintain its firm footing into the coming week.
Activity towards the West Coast of India has also continued to strengthen, as the lack of available orders and ongoing unrest in the Middle East Gulf constrain vessel supply. Owners are maintaining firm ideas in the mid-$20,000s per day for single voyages, while charterers continue to target the low $20,000s.
Most fixtures concluded during the week were in the $24,000–25,000-per-day range, while some business was concluded in the high $10,000s, basis Penang redelivery, reflecting firmer market conditions and the increasingly confident negotiating position of owners.
For voyages towards the East Coast of India, freight levels are being discussed at approximately $22,000–23,000 per day, while employment with Penang or Singapore redelivery is attracting levels in the high $10,000s. With regional uncertainty continuing to influence vessel availability and owners remaining firm on their rate expectations, the market is expected to retain its underlying support.
The backhaul market, however, remains broadly flat, with owners quoting approximately $21,000–22,000 per day for voyages to the Continent and $23,000–24,000 for employment towards the Mediterranean, while workable levels are generally around $20,000 for the Continent and $21,000–22,000 for the Mediterranean.
Demand for larger vessels on these longer-haul routes is strengthening owners’ confidence in holding their positions and testing higher levels. As the year-end approaches, such employment continues to offer attractive alternatives, particularly for vessels whose geographical positioning and trading characteristics allow them to compete effectively for longer-distance cargoes.
The period market remains firm across both shorter and longer-term requirements, with demand for modern, eco-efficient larger Handysize vessels continuing to provide solid support. Short-period employment of approximately four to six months is generally being discussed in the high $10,000s to low $20,000s per day, reflecting firm sentiment in the forward market for quality tonnage and period cover, which is encouraging owners to maintain increasingly confident rate expectations. The period segment is consequently expected to remain well supported.
Southeast Asia & Australia | The right ship wins
Handysize: spot softens, period holds firm
The Southeast Asia and Australia Handysize market remained broadly sideways during the week, with freight rates easing slightly from the previous period amid limited fresh enquiry and a marginally longer tonnage list. Overall activity remained moderate, as leg employment and short-period requirements continued to provide some business, although not in sufficient volume to generate meaningful upward momentum.
An additional consideration is the increasing reliance of charterers on their own vessels to cover cargo requirements, which continues to restrict opportunities for open-market tonnage. Nevertheless, the gradual increase in pre-advised cargoes offers a degree of forward support and may help underpin market sentiment as the region moves into November.
Smaller Handysize vessels continue to achieve approximately $13,000–14,000 per day for Pacific round voyages, while vessels of around 32,000 dwt are securing similar levels for Indonesia–Southeast Asia and Indonesia–Far East voyages, basis Singapore redelivery.
For larger Handysize units, 38,000 dwt vessels on non-Australian round voyages are earning approximately $15,000–15,500 per day, whereas clean vessels suitable for Australian trading can still command $17,000–18,500 per day for Australian round voyages from Singapore. Coastal business remains relatively quiet, with fair market value estimated at approximately $24,000–25,000 per day.
The market remains highly positional, with Australia-friendly vessels enjoying a clear advantage when competing for employment, while non-Australia tonnage may need to consider shorter or less attractive voyages to bridge gaps between open positions. Despite the softer spot-market sentiment, vessel supply remains relatively tight for loggers in the region, allowing smaller 32,000–34,000 dwt log-fitted vessels to achieve approximately $16,000–16,500 per day for leg employment.
Backhaul and period markets continue to demonstrate greater resilience, particularly for quality larger Handysize vessels, providing an underlying cushion to earnings even as prompt spot tonnage faces increasing competition. This distinction between vessel suitability and geographical positioning remains particularly important in a market where the availability of the right ship, in the right place and at the right time, can materially influence achievable returns.
Looking ahead, the Southeast Asia and Australia market is expected to remain broadly sideways into November, with limited fresh demand and a slightly longer tonnage list likely to restrict any meaningful near-term recovery. Spot voyages may experience further downward pressure, although improving visibility over forward cargoes should help contain the extent of any significant correction. Overall sentiment remains cautiously balanced, with a firmer bias towards backhaul and period employment, while prompt spot business remains more vulnerable to softening.
Period market | The expectations gap widens
Atlantic Ultramax: spot weakness weighs on period demand
The Atlantic Ultramax period market continues to display bearish signals, although one-year rates are still holding at relatively respectable levels when compared with next year’s paper market.
Spot freight rates across the Atlantic have weakened week-on-week on all major routes, further reducing charterers’ appetite for committing to period employment. At the same time, the gap between owners’ and charterers’ expectations continues to widen, with owners maintaining targets of $22,000–23,000 per day for one-year business on a sub-delivery basis.
The divergence between current spot conditions and forward employment expectations suggests that charterers remain cautious about securing longer-term cover at owners’ preferred levels, particularly while the Atlantic spot market continues to lose ground.
Atlantic Handysize: period negotiations grow tougher
The Atlantic Handysize period market has also continued to soften, with charterer interest remaining limited at the fourth-quarter levels sought by owners. Owners are generally targeting the $17,000s per day for one-year employment, while charterers remain around $16,000 per day on a sub-delivery basis.
Meanwhile, the CAL27 paper market continues to trade approximately $4,000 per day below current fourth-quarter spot-market levels, while spot freight rates have come under further week-on-week pressure, particularly in the US Gulf.
The widening difference between owners’ expectations and charterers’ valuations underlines the caution currently prevailing in the forward market, with the decision to secure period employment increasingly dependent on individual vessel positioning, quality and the relative attractiveness of maintaining spot exposure.
Forward outlook | Positioning will make the difference
As the market moves into November, the prevailing picture is one of regional divergence rather than a broad-based recovery, with the performance of individual vessel segments increasingly determined by local cargo availability, the distribution of open tonnage and the ability of owners to identify the most rewarding trading directions.
The South Atlantic, U.S. Gulf Ultramax and West Coast South America remain the areas most exposed to further near-term pressure, as the completion of early-November cargo programmes and the accumulation of available vessels continue to weaken owners’ negotiating positions. In these basins, a more selective approach to employment, supported by realistic freight expectations and careful consideration of vessel positioning, will be essential to protecting earnings.
By contrast, the U.S. Gulf Handysize market, the Continent and the Far East offer comparatively stronger foundations, with improved cargo enquiry, tighter prompt availability in selected positions and sustained demand for quality tonnage providing support to current levels. Whether this strength can be carried further into November will depend on the continuity of fresh cargo flows and the extent to which the available fleet can be absorbed without materially altering the present supply-and-demand balance.
Across the Middle East Gulf and Indian Ocean, security-related uncertainty will remain an important influence on deployment decisions and voyage economics, while the continued preference for China redelivery is likely to preserve a premium for China-bound employment over comparable India-bound voyages. In this environment, the assessment of individual trading opportunities must extend beyond headline freight levels to include positioning, operational exposure, associated costs and redelivery prospects.
The period market also warrants a measured approach, particularly as the widening gap between owners’ and charterers’ expectations, together with the discount reflected in CAL27 paper, indicates that forward commitments should be evaluated selectively rather than pursued at the expense of commercial flexibility. For owners, the relative merits of securing period employment against maintaining spot exposure will increasingly depend on vessel quality, geographical position and the visibility of future cargo demand.
Ultimately, the coming weeks are likely to reward sound positioning, disciplined negotiations and the ability to identify opportunities arising from regional dislocations rather than reliance on a general improvement in market conditions. Maintaining flexibility between trading basins, prioritising quality counterparties and balancing spot exposure against period cover should remain central to commercial strategy, while close attention to changes in cargo flows and vessel availability will be essential to anticipating movements before they become fully reflected in the freight market.
The broader outlook is therefore one of measured confidence rather than unqualified optimism. Although several areas are clearly entering a corrective phase, the market continues to offer attractive opportunities for owners capable of combining timely intelligence, commercial judgement and an active approach to fleet employment. In an increasingly differentiated trading environment, the ability to read the market beyond its headline rate movements, anticipate changes in regional positioning and translate those insights into effective employment decisions will remain a defining factor in protecting earnings and capturing selective upside.
Legal disclaimer
This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.