The dry bulk market sailed into another week of declining rates, with the steep retreat of Capesize vessels weighing heavily on overall performance, while Panamax-sized tonnage followed suit, albeit with more contained, single-digit weekly losses. The smaller segments, by contrast, held their ground and edged modestly higher, offering a measure of resilience amid the broader downturn. The divergence between vessel classes was unmistakable: Capesizes fell by 25.14%, Kamsarmaxes declined by 4.53%, while Ultramaxes and Handysizes advanced by 2.81% and 1.52%, respectively. Against this backdrop, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shed 406 points over the week, closing at 2,511 on Friday, 16 October.
The latest performance underscores a market increasingly shaped by the fortunes of its largest vessels, whose weakness has overshadowed the steadier course of the smaller segments. Yet the regional picture remains far from uniform, with shifting cargo flows, vessel availability and the balance between supply and demand continuing to dictate the direction of freight rates across the principal trading basins.
Capesize | A 25% rout as Atlantic rates crumble
In Asia, Capesize sentiment came under pressure as mining activity remained subdued and the flow of fresh cargoes proved insufficient to lend meaningful support to freight rates. Towards the close of the week, however, the market found some firmer footing when two of the three major mining companies returned to the market, helping to stabilise rates after an otherwise difficult period. The benchmark on the Australia–China route (C5) closed on Friday at $11.70 per tonne.
The Atlantic offered little respite, with rates falling despite an increase in fixtures, as every route across both the northern and southern basins moved lower. By Friday, the Brazil–China route (C3) stood at $30.08 per tonne, while transits from Europe to Asia were assessed at $67,170 per day on the C9 route, and transatlantic round voyages closed at $31,500 per day on C8.
The sharp weekly contraction in the Capesize segment suggests that cargo demand and fixture activity have yet to translate into sufficient pricing power to reverse the prevailing downward trend. Although the late-week stabilisation in Asia offered a limited counterweight, a more sustained recovery will depend on stronger demand for tonnage and a firmer flow of fresh business across the Atlantic.
Kamsarmax | Atlantic tonnage builds as Asia tightens
The Atlantic Kamsarmax market maintained a broadly balanced stance, supported by a steady stream of mineral cargoes and a satisfactory supply of vessels. Towards the end of the week, however, tonnage began to accumulate in Northern Europe and the South Atlantic, introducing a more competitive element into the fixing landscape. Rates for voyages from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) to the Far East stood at $20,000–$22,000 per day, basis delivery in Asia, while Europe-to-Asia voyages, basis delivery in Europe, commanded $29,500–$31,500 per day. Transatlantic round voyages, basis delivery Gibraltar, were assessed at $21,000–$23,000 per day.
Asia followed a more constructive course, with Australia, Indonesia and the North Pacific emerging as the principal drivers of an upward movement. Fixing levels remained satisfactory, available tonnage was limited, and interest in period employment strengthened, suggesting that charterers were increasingly attentive to securing cover ahead of further changes in the market. Kamsarmax round voyages within Southeast Asia and the Far East were assessed at $23,000–$25,000 per day, basis delivery in the Far East.
The contrast between the two basins remains pronounced. While the accumulation of tonnage in parts of the Atlantic could temper rate momentum, the tighter availability and firmer fixing activity in Asia provide a more supportive foundation for the Kamsarmax segment. Whether that strength can be sustained will depend on the continuity of cargo demand and the extent to which the growing interest in period employment translates into further tightening of prompt vessel supply.
Ultramax | A 2.81% gain conceals a fractured market
Southeast Asia and the Far East | Cargo momentum keeps rates rising
The Southeast Asian market moved higher, underpinned by a steady stream of cargoes bound for India and Bangladesh, while Australia and Indonesia also remained active. Ultramax rates for voyages between Southeast Asia and the Far East were assessed at $20,500–$22,000 per day.
Further north, the Far East retained its momentum, with a healthy volume of cargoes in the North Pacific and opportunities for backhaul employment adding depth to the market. Ultramax rates for North Pacific round voyages (NOPAC) stood at $20,500–$22,000 per day, while voyages to India commanded $26,500–$28,000 per day. Backhaul voyages towards the Atlantic were assessed at $22,500–$24,000 per day.
The combination of active cargo programmes and a relatively restricted supply of vessels has helped these Asian markets maintain a firmer footing than some of their Atlantic counterparts. Should cargo availability remain steady, the region may continue to provide a measure of support to the Ultramax segment, although the durability of the current momentum will ultimately depend on the balance between fresh demand and incoming tonnage.
Middle East Gulf and West Coast India | Owners hold firm as fixtures thin out
The Middle East Gulf and West Coast India markets remained subdued, with little meaningful activity to animate the fixing desk. Owners nevertheless held firm to their rate ideas, and the resulting gap between expectations and executable business contributed to a reduction in fixture volumes. Several owners were also weighing the risks of transiting the straits, an additional consideration in an already cautious trading environment.
Ultramax voyages to the Far East were assessed at $14,500–$16,000 per day, basis delivery West Coast India (WCI).
The limited flow of fresh business and the persistence of firm owner expectations point to a market in which activity may remain constrained until either cargo demand improves or rate expectations become more closely aligned. The prospect of transits through the straits adds another layer of uncertainty to the region’s immediate outlook.
U.S. Gulf and Northern South America | Softer rates, strong earnings for well-positioned ships
In the Atlantic, and particularly in the U.S. Gulf, the Ultramax market edged lower compared with the previous week. Activity was concentrated along the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and the North Coast of South America (NCSA), where vessels positioned in the right locations were still able to secure satisfactory earnings. Ultramax rates for transatlantic voyages were assessed at $29,000–$30,500 per day, while voyages to Asia commanded $33,500–$35,000 per day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA), meanwhile, remained broadly unchanged, although sentiment carried a degree of optimism regarding a possible improvement over the coming period. Activity on Asia-bound voyages regained momentum, while transatlantic freight rates held at healthy levels. Voyages to Southeast Asia and China were assessed at $35,000–$36,500 per day, while transatlantic voyages to the Mediterranean and Europe commanded $35,500–$37,000 per day.
Although the U.S. Gulf softened marginally, the ability of well-positioned vessels to secure satisfactory rates illustrates the importance of regional positioning in an uneven Atlantic market. The relative stability of ECSA, coupled with renewed activity on Asia-bound routes, offers a more encouraging signal, though a sustained recovery will require continued cargo support rather than isolated pockets of demand.
Europe and the Mediterranean | Scarcer tonnage offers a fragile lifeline
The European Ultramax market experienced a relatively quiet week, with only a limited number of fresh requirements entering the market. Some activity emerged as the week progressed, but it was insufficient to reverse the prevailing sentiment. Rates for local round voyages stood at $19,500–$21,000 per day, while scrap-carrying voyages to the Mediterranean were assessed at $35,000–$36,500 per day and voyages to Asia at $32,500–$34,000 per day.
The Mediterranean opened the week on a firmer note, supported by a steady flow of cargoes, while the pool of available tonnage gradually diminished. By the end of the week, the balance between supply and demand had become more even. An Ultramax voyage from the Mediterranean to Asia was being fixed at $24,000–$25,500 per day, basis delivery Çanakkale, while voyages across the Atlantic were assessed at $13,500–$15,000 per day. Employment within the Mediterranean commanded $17,500–$19,000 per day, excluding war zones.
The European market’s limited flow of fresh requirements suggests that the recovery in Mediterranean rates has so far been driven more by tightening vessel availability than by a broad-based acceleration in demand. If the supply of prompt tonnage continues to recede, rates may retain some support, although a stronger and more durable upward movement will require a healthier pipeline of new cargoes.
Handysize | Smaller ships gain ground as supply tightens
Europe and the Mediterranean | Owners regain pricing power, but risks persist
The European Handysize market continued to move upwards, supported by a healthy influx of new cargoes and a declining number of available vessels. As the balance tightened, owners pressed for higher freight levels. Rates for the larger vessels in the segment were assessed at $23,000–$24,500 per day for round voyages, $30,500–$32,000 per day for scrap shipments to the Mediterranean, and $15,500–$17,000 per day for transatlantic voyages.
The Mediterranean presented a more divided picture. In the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, elevated insurance risks made it difficult to cover certain cargoes, while the Western Mediterranean performed more positively, with some vessels securing employment in Northern Europe or northern Brazil. For larger Handysize vessels exceeding 36,000 dwt, rates stood at $13,000–$14,500 per day for intra-Mediterranean voyages, $11,500–$13,000 per day for voyages to Europe, and $9,000–$10,500 per day for voyages across the Atlantic. Asia-bound voyages, basis delivery Çanakkale, commanded $22,000–$23,500 per day.
The European market’s firmer tone reflects the combined influence of healthy cargo availability and a shrinking pool of open vessels, which has strengthened owners’ negotiating positions. However, the divergent conditions across the Mediterranean underline the extent to which insurance exposure and geographical positioning continue to influence fixture activity, with elevated risk weighing on certain routes even as other areas benefit from tighter tonnage.
U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America | Fresh cargoes revive freight momentum
The Handysize market in the U.S. Gulf began the week quietly, but fresh cargoes appeared around midweek, while the U.S. East Coast attracted considerable attention as activity gathered pace. Rates for larger vessels in the segment were assessed at $18,500–$20,000 per day for voyages across the Atlantic and $15,500–$17,000 per day for Asia-bound employment.
On the East Coast of South America (ECSA), the week opened at a subdued pace, but activity improved as the days passed, bringing a corresponding improvement in freight levels. Transatlantic voyages to Europe and the Mediterranean were assessed at $30,000–$31,500 per day, while voyages to Asia commanded $28,500–$30,000 per day.
The improving pace of business in both areas suggests that the Handysize market retains room for further gains where cargo demand strengthens and available tonnage becomes more tightly absorbed. Yet the recovery remains dependent on the continuity of fresh enquiries, particularly in ECSA, where the initial weakness of the week gave way only gradually to a more active fixing environment.
Asia and the North Pacific | China’s return shrinks the pool of available ships
In Asia, and particularly in the northern markets, the Handysize sector gained ground following China’s return from its holiday period. At the same time, a shortage of available vessels began to emerge for late October, adding support to the regional market. In the south, sentiment also improved as the number of vessels available for the coming period began to decline. Even so, a further increase in demand will be needed before a more decisive improvement in freight rates can take hold.
Further west, the Middle East Gulf and India markets remained subdued, with limited demand and very few fresh cargoes emerging from the Gulf. Such support as the market received came from India, where a steady flow of cargoes towards Asia provided a degree of underlying activity.
Rates for larger Handysize vessels stood at $18,000–$19,500 per day for round voyages in the Far East and North Pacific (NOPAC), while voyages from Southeast Asia to China were assessed at the same $18,000–$19,500 per day range. Voyages from West Coast India to China commanded $14,500–$16,000 per day.
The return of Chinese activity and the tightening availability of late-October tonnage have provided the Asian Handysize market with a more supportive backdrop. Nevertheless, the limited flow of fresh cargoes in the Middle East Gulf and the need for stronger demand in southern Asia suggest that any broader recovery is likely to remain uneven, with the next phase of rate performance hinging on whether the current reduction in vessel availability is matched by a sustained increase in cargo volumes.
The market ahead | Can smaller vessels hold the line while Capesizes sink?
The week’s figures reveal a dry bulk market moving along sharply different courses, with the Capesize segment bearing the brunt of the downturn, Kamsarmaxes losing ground more moderately, and the smaller Ultramax and Handysize classes managing to post gains. The 406-point decline in the Baltic Dry Index to 2,511 reflects the weight of the largest vessels on the overall market, even as tighter tonnage and more resilient cargo flows have lent support to selected regional trades.
Looking ahead, the key variables will remain the strength and continuity of cargo demand, the availability of prompt tonnage and the ability of regional markets to absorb open vessels without eroding freight levels. Asia offers pockets of resilience, particularly where cargo flows remain steady and available ships are scarce, while parts of Europe and the Atlantic continue to show how quickly rate momentum can fade when fresh requirements fail to keep pace with supply. For the dry bulk market as a whole, a sustained recovery will require more than isolated improvements among the smaller vessel classes: it will depend on a firmer footing for Capesizes and a broader alignment between cargo demand and vessel supply across the principal trading routes.
Legal disclaimer
This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.