The Ultramax and Handysize markets brought the week to a close with their underlying fundamentals still firmly supportive across most trading regions, even as the pace of fixing began to moderate in several areas following the advances recorded during the preceding weeks. The easing in activity, however, has the character of consolidation rather than deterioration, with cargo demand remaining healthy, prompt tonnage generally under control and forward-period valuations continuing to point towards confidence in earnings through the fourth quarter of 2026 and into the opening months of 2027.
The Atlantic basin, India-related trades and South-East Asia continue to provide the principal ballast to the market, while the period sector perhaps offers the clearest indication of how owners themselves are reading the prevailing conditions. Their willingness to maintain firm ideas, and in a number of areas to demand improved numbers from charterers seeking prompt ships, suggests that the market remains tighter beneath the surface than the weekly volume of fixtures might initially imply. There is, in other words, still a degree of undertow beneath the apparent calm, and charterers are increasingly discovering that securing the right ship at the right time requires more than simply testing the market with yesterday’s numbers.
South Atlantic: a tighter tide from the north
Ultramax: Transatlantic demand keeps owners on firm ground
The South Atlantic continued to carry a positive tone throughout the week, with healthy transatlantic demand meeting a relatively tight tonnage list and supporting levels above those seen in the previous week. Owners remained confident enough to hold and push their ideas, although the distance between those ideas and charterers’ indications continued to restrain the volume of concluded business. Fronthaul demand was less pronounced than transatlantic employment, yet the scarcity of available tonnage continued to lend support to rates, while West Africa remained broadly balanced, with prevailing levels holding firm.
Handysize: North Brazil tightens as replacement tonnage retreats
The Handysize market moved onto firmer water as the week progressed, with North Brazil leading the advance as demand continued to build against a limited supply of prompt vessels. Owners became increasingly comfortable maintaining their positions rather than chasing cargo, compelling charterers to raise their numbers progressively when they required firm commitment. At the same time, firmer U.S. Gulf levels and higher ballast costs reduced the pool of potential replacement tonnage, further tightening the effective supply available to the market.
South Brazil, by contrast, remained more rangebound, with transatlantic, West Coast South America and fronthaul business establishing new benchmarks and broadly holding around those levels. The economics of West Coast South America employment continue to provide the principal ceiling for the region, since a low-30s West Coast South America return remains more attractive than a mid-20s transatlantic employment once the cost of the ballast leg is properly accounted for. Against that backdrop, it is difficult to envisage transatlantic rates moving materially higher without a corresponding strengthening of the West Coast South America market.
Taken as a whole, the regional balance is tighter than it was at the beginning of the week, particularly in the north, and with October demand continuing to accumulate while replacement tonnage fails to keep pace, the South Atlantic enters the coming week with a distinctly firm underlying current.
U.S. Gulf: momentum meets a deeper pool of tonnage
Ultramax: early strength confronts a lengthening tonnage list
The U.S. Gulf opened the week with considerable energy, carrying forward the momentum established during the preceding weeks, and a number of healthy fixtures were concluded, including petcoke employment to the Mediterranean and to the Singapore-Japan range, both in the USD 34,000s. As the week unfolded, however, the tonnage list began to lengthen, while liquidity for end-September and early-October dates became noticeably thinner, leaving some prompt vessels facing waiting days as the available cargo failed to match the ships seeking employment.
Unless a fresh injection of cargo emerges, some downward pressure may consequently develop on fixing levels, although the strength visible in the paper market for Q4 suggests that any such decline is more likely to represent a temporary ebb than a fundamental change in direction. The U.S. East Coast remains finely balanced, with strong scrap levels on the Continent discouraging ballasters and thereby helping to place a ceiling on the amount of tonnage entering the region.
The overall impression is therefore one of stability as the week closes, although a meaningful further advance will require additional cargo volume to give the market another push forward.
Handysize: a quieter market turns its attention towards October
The U.S. Gulf Handysize market experienced a quieter week following the strong run of the previous period, with ASBA week in Miami keeping activity relatively subdued as a number of key participants were away from their desks and fixing momentum consequently lost some of its earlier force. Owners’ ideas eased back from the recent highs and the tone softened, although the fixtures that were concluded remained broadly consistent with the levels established during the previous week.
By the end of the week, both spot cargoes and tonnage had largely cleared through the system, leaving a market that was cleaner in terms of outstanding business but quieter in terms of fresh activity. With the September programme now largely worked through, attention is naturally turning towards October as the next window begins to take shape. The market therefore closes softer than it opened, but without losing the foundations upon which the coming weeks may build.
The immediate risk is straightforward: should tonnage continue to accumulate while cargo availability remains restrained, owners may find it increasingly difficult to defend current levels, particularly for prompt vessels.
West Coast South America: waiting for the current to turn
Ultramax: owners hold back as tonnage begins to tighten
West Coast South America experienced a relatively quiet week, with many owners choosing to remain on the sidelines rather than commit their ships at prevailing levels, preferring instead to wait for clearer evidence of improvement. A meaningful number of West Coast Central America vessels continue to favour North Pacific employment over West Coast South America, yet the regional tonnage list is beginning to tighten, a development that should provide a more reliable indication of the market’s next direction as the new week unfolds.
Handysize: ballast economics keep alternative employment attractive
Handysize activity along the coast was similarly restrained, prompting a number of vessels to consider employment via East Coast South America instead. Rates on ECSA/WCSA routes remain sufficiently healthy to offset the cost of the ballast leg, preserving the attractiveness of that repositioning strategy, while operators continue to show solid appetite for period employment, with fixtures reportedly being concluded in the high teens. Beyond this, however, the week remained comparatively quiet.
Continent: a market testing its new waterline
Ultramax: firmer rates meet a more balanced tonnage picture
The Continent saw activity gradually gather momentum during the week, with the market retaining a firm tone and fixing levels moving above last-done. Owners were generally reluctant to chase cargo at prevailing numbers, while relatively few bids and offers were openly circulated and market participants continued to keep their true ideas close to their chest. The arrival of additional available tonnage has nevertheless restored a degree of balance, particularly as much of the cargo currently positioned is for dates from 5 October onwards, leaving relatively limited immediate demand for spot tonnage.
Rates have continued to edge higher, but the increase in available tonnage should, in principle, leave cargo better offered and provide charterers with somewhat more room to manoeuvre than they have enjoyed in recent weeks. The market is therefore firm, but the balance between supply and demand is becoming less one-sided.
Handysize: strong support, but the rally searches for its ceiling
Handysize rates remained healthy after their sharp rise earlier in the week, although activity began to cool as the number of fixtures diminished and a noticeable amount of fixing and failing reflected the continuing effort by owners and charterers to discover where the new market level should properly settle.
The underlying support remains substantial, with a tight tonnage position and solid cargo book continuing to underpin rates, yet the speed of the recent advance has created a growing sense that the market may be approaching a short-term top, leaving room for a modest adjustment as the next week begins.
Mediterranean & Black Sea: after the surge, the sea calms
Ultramax: a hectic opening gives way to a quieter market
The Mediterranean and Black Sea market began the week with considerable strength, propelled by the rush of Continent requirements and renewed Black Sea momentum, before the initial surge gradually lost some of its intensity. Monday and Tuesday were particularly hectic, attracting strong West Mediterranean attention and producing several fixtures on the Continent, but the frenetic opening was followed by a number of quieter days. At the height of the activity, charts were covering September dates in the Continent and dates extending to approximately 10 October ex Black Sea.
The tonnage list remains relatively sharp, although demand within the Mediterranean is currently more compressed, while Continent requirements are increasingly aimed at later dates and therefore do not, at present, provide sufficient incentive for charts to seek additional West Mediterranean tonnage.
Handysize: tight tonnage remains as immediate demand recedes
The Handysize market followed a remarkably similar course, opening strongly on the back of the Continent rush and renewed Black Sea activity before settling into a quieter rhythm. The intense activity on Monday and Tuesday drew West Mediterranean attention and generated a number of Continent fixtures, after which the market became noticeably calmer, with the busiest period producing coverage for September dates in the Continent and through approximately 10 October ex Black Sea.
Tonnage remains relatively tight, but Mediterranean demand is currently squeezed, while Continent requirements are concentrated on later dates and are therefore not yet sufficiently urgent to encourage charts to seek West Mediterranean tonnage.
Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa: navigating cross-currents
Ultramax: India demand and positioning economics hold the regional balance
The Indian Ocean began the week on an active footing despite the continuing situation in the Middle East Gulf, demonstrating once again how strongly the wider regional balance can be shaped by cargo flows and positioning decisions even when individual trading areas remain constrained.
The MEG/West Coast India market remains firm despite relatively limited activity from local cargoes. Volumes moving out of Fujairah and Dibba have been comparatively fewer, but continuing activity from Salalah and the South Africa market has helped keep overall tonnage availability under control. Salt exports remain very limited and, in general, do not offer levels sufficiently attractive to owners.
Within the Middle East Gulf, a small number of ships, primarily Chinese-owned, continue to show interest in crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Supramax trips from outside the Strait towards India are being heard in the high teens DOP Middle East Gulf, reflecting a market in which both positioning and navigational risk continue to influence the economics of employment.
West Coast India has also seen good activity, with charterers taking Ultramaxes on short period in the low USD 20,000s. In the time-charter trip market, Supramaxes are being fixed around USD 14,000 DOP, with split-rate structures for trips towards East Africa offering owners a more favourable redelivery position. Ultramaxes continue to enjoy an advantage when ballasting down towards South Africa, placing additional pressure on charterers with West Coast India cargoes to move closer to owners’ asking levels.
East Coast India is performing strongly, with Indonesia/India round voyages seeing charterers rating Ultramaxes in the high teens DOP, against owners’ low-20s ideas. Some owners are prepared to ballast their ships down towards Singapore in the expectation of finding their next employment there, given the stronger market compared with East Coast India.
Red Sea cargoes into the India/Bangladesh region remain healthy and continue to provide a useful layer of support to the market.
South Africa is likewise showing a good volume of cargo, particularly for trips towards India, where charterers are rating Ultramaxes in the high teens DOP West Coast India, against owners’ ideas in the mid-to-low USD 20,000s. South Africa/Far East trips are being fixed at approximately USD 26,000 plus ballast bonus. Despite a healthy amount of cargo and an adequate number of ships in South Africa, including ballasters carrying sufficient bunkers, both owners and charterers appear prepared to hold their respective positions rather than concede readily. Backhaul Ultramax cargoes are being rated around USD 20,000 APS by charterers against owners’ ideas in the low USD 20,000s APS delivery.
Handysize: rising Indian cargo keeps sentiment steady to firm
Handysize cargo availability is increasing, particularly out of India, while backhaul employment towards Europe and the U.S. Gulf remains active and South Africa has also been busy. The overall sentiment is positive, with rates remaining steady to firm as cargo and tonnage continue to find a reasonably supportive balance.
Far East & South-East Asia: the Pacific holds its course
Ultramax: India and Bangladesh keep the southern market firm
The Far East and South-East Asian Ultramax market remained firm throughout the week, supported by solid demand across both basins and continued India/Bangladesh business. Activity in the north was relatively steady, although order volumes eased somewhat towards the end of the week, while North Pacific and backhaul routes remained well supported, with several prompt orders still requiring coverage ahead of the Golden Week holiday.
North Pacific round-voyage fixtures were heard in the low-to-mid USD 20,000s, including a 66k fixed at USD 25,500 DOP for North Pacific/Chittagong and a 63k at approximately USD 23,000 for North Pacific/Vietnam. A 56k tonner was also heard fixed at USD 24,000 for a Mediterranean trip, while a 60k was fixed at USD 20,000 for Australia/Far East coal. Period enquiry remained present, with a 56k reportedly fixed at USD 20,000 for 5–7 months, while owners generally continue to seek the low USD 20,000s for short-period employment. Despite the slight easing in order volumes, firm backhaul and North Pacific demand continued to support the northern market.
In the south, sentiment remained firm, driven principally by India and Bangladesh-related business. Strong fixtures were heard for limestone into Chittagong, with 66k and 60k vessels fixing around USD 28,500–29,000, while a 63k opening Indonesia was heard fixed at USD 29,000 for Indonesian coal to India. Other Indonesian and Australia-related business remained active, including a 58k fixed at USD 22,500 for an Indonesia round voyage, a 61k at USD 24,000 for Indonesia/Thailand and a 60k opening Singapore at USD 18,500 DOP for Australia/South Africa. India-related demand continued to underpin the market, with a 64k fixed at USD 22,500 for a trip via Indonesia with redelivery India, and a 55k heard on subjects at USD 21,000 for a two-leg option.
The southern market therefore remains well supported by the persistent pull of India and Bangladesh demand, with owners continuing to defend firm ideas while prompt tonnage attracts healthy levels.
Handysize: backhauls and period starters sustain Pacific values
For Handysize vessels in the Far East, southbound employment on larger units is being concluded around USD 18,000, while smaller vessels are trading around USD 16,000. Backhaul employment remains particularly healthy, with trips towards the Continent, Mediterranean and West Coast Central America being concluded in the USD 19,000–21,000 range, while trips towards India are currently being indicated in the low-to-mid USD 20,000s, or fixed on a BSS basis with redelivery around the Penang/Singapore range.
In South-East Asia and Australia, Pacific round voyages for smaller Handies are being heard in the USD 13,000–14,000 range. Larger Handies on Australia round voyages, basis Singapore delivery, see owners targeting the high teens, against charterers’ initial indications in the mid-teens. Forward value currently sits around USD 17,000, while the presence of several period starters, including cement and fertiliser requirements, has helped support leg and short-period business in the USD 18,000s.
The period market: where owners are reading the horizon
The period market is perhaps the clearest window through which to view the prevailing sentiment, and in the Atlantic the Ultramax period market remains distinctly bullish. Short- to medium-period business is moving into the mid-to-high USD 20,000s, depending upon vessel specification and delivery, while Q1 2027 is currently showing stronger indications than the full 2027 calendar year. That inversion of the usual market structure is noteworthy, because it suggests that the market’s confidence is concentrated particularly strongly in the near-to-medium term rather than resting on an assumption that the present strength will simply continue indefinitely.
The period market for larger Handysize vessels in the Atlantic is likewise described as very bullish, adding another layer of support to the broader picture and reinforcing the impression that owners remain confident enough in the underlying market to commit vessels at firm forward values.
Strategic outlook: reading the next tide
The market enters the coming week with a constructive but increasingly selective character. Across much of the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, the fundamental balance remains favourable, supported by healthy cargo demand, controlled prompt tonnage and forward values that continue to reflect confidence in earnings through the fourth quarter and into early 2027. Yet the week’s quieter patches are equally instructive, because they demonstrate that the market is not moving uniformly and that an increase in available tonnage can quickly temper fixing momentum when cargo does not arrive with sufficient force to absorb it.
For owners, the prevailing environment argues for discipline rather than an indiscriminate pursuit of short-lived peaks, particularly where the temptation to extrapolate the recent rally could obscure the value of positioning and employment quality. For charterers, the scarcity of prompt tonnage in several regions makes forward coverage increasingly relevant, especially where regional replacement costs are rising and the alternative is to enter a tightening spot market at a later stage.
The central question for the weeks ahead is therefore not simply whether rates can move higher, but whether the developing October cargo programme will be strong enough to absorb the tonnage now entering the market. That balance between fresh demand and replacement supply will determine whether the present firmness develops into another sustained leg upwards or settles into a more measured trading range.
From a strategic standpoint, the current structure supports maintaining measured market exposure while resisting the assumption that the recent rally can continue in a straight line. The more likely character of the market is one of shifting currents, in which regional timing, vessel positioning, ballast economics and the quality of employment become increasingly important determinants of value. The headline rate will remain visible, but the greater commercial advantage will belong to those able to read what lies beneath it.
In shipping, as in navigation, the strongest passage is rarely achieved by following the wake of the vessel immediately ahead. It is achieved by understanding the wind, the current, the available depth beneath the keel and, above all, the course that the market is beginning to reveal before it becomes obvious to everyone else.
Legal disclaimer
This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.