A war that shut the world’s most valuable oil chokepoint for over a hundred days ended this week, or so the diplomats announced. The strait reopened on signature, traffic crept back above twenty vessels a day, and then Iran shut it again on Saturday over an Israeli ceasefire it says Washington failed to enforce. Brent gave back its entire war premium regardless. Dry bulk slid from its early-June highs before a Friday Capesize rally clawed half of it back. The container market posted its best week in eighteen months. And in New York, one boardroom fight ended with the kind of decisive vote that leaves one side writing very different letters to shareholders next year.
Hormuz: open, then closed again
The week’s defining story is a peace deal that has already survived one weekend and is being tested by a second. On 17 June the U.S. released the official text of a 14-point memorandum, digitally signed days earlier by Trump, Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, with formal in-person signing set for Friday in Switzerland. The terms: an immediate, permanent end to hostilities on every front including Lebanon, the U.S. naval blockade lifted within 30 days, and Strait of Hormuz traffic restored to pre-war volumes.
The diplomacy held for about a day. Then it didn’t. Twenty-five ships transited the strait on Thursday, the highest figure since 2 June, with Vance telling reporters Iran was “honoring their end of the commitment.” By Friday, after the first round of Bürgenstock talks was abruptly called off, traffic fell back to single digits. Nearly 500 ships, including 220 tankers, remain stuck in the Gulf, with mines still reported in the central part of the strait.
Then came Saturday. A Friday ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered to save the wider talks, lasted less than a day before Israel resumed strikes on Lebanon, killing at least 32 people, with Netanyahu saying troops would stay in the south as long as needed. Iran’s military responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz again, citing the memorandum’s clause on ending hostilities “on all fronts, including Lebanon.” The IRGC navy warned vessels off, citing mines; the U.S. denied Iran controls the strait and said traffic would keep flowing. Iran’s delegation, led by Ghalibaf, is heading to Switzerland regardless, though talks are unlikely to start properly before Sunday.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: A memorandum that survives 72 hours before its central clause gets suspended is a ceasefire with a paperwork layer on top. Netanyahu didn’t need to sabotage anything quietly; he ordered troops to keep striking and said so publicly, which tells you exactly how much Hormuz is worth to him.
The Hormuz transit fee nobody has agreed on yet
Even if the ceasefire holds long enough for the 60-day window to run its course, owners face a second, more durable problem: what happens when it expires. Iran’s newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority is laying the groundwork for a transit insurance fee to take effect once the toll-free 60-day period under the memorandum ends, distributing an open letter to the shipping sector confirming the plan and dictating a mandatory route past the Iranian island of Larak, with any deviation “strictly prohibited and treated as a violation.” The PGSA, already placed on the U.S. Treasury’s Specially Designated Nationals list as an IRGC-linked entity in late May, has driven mainstream operators toward the Cape of Good Hope route instead, a diversion that adds roughly 3,500 nautical miles to a Gulf-to-Atlantic voyage. Vessel tracking data showed daily transits falling by 57% in the weeks after the OFAC designation, from roughly seven vessels a day to just over three, before this week’s brief Thursday recovery and Saturday reversal.
The shipping industry is openly split on whether to pay if and when Iran formalises the fee. Greek owner Evangelos Marinakis said he would prefer to pay a transit fee to Iran for safe passage rather than continue absorbing war-risk insurance premiums, arguing the fee could offset war damage Iran suffered. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has called the idea “completely unacceptable” since April, telling CNN that any agreement “cannot include a sort of a fee that ships will have to pay every time they cross the strait.” Fellow shipowner George Prokopiou has aligned against payment in principle, even though his own company, Dynacom, reportedly continued transiting the strait during the war and paying Iran in Chinese yuan. Oman’s position is the decisive variable: if Muscat declines to endorse the fee, vessels could theoretically transit through Omani territorial waters instead, undercutting Iran’s leverage entirely, and Trump has reportedly already pressed Oman over its refusal to publicly reject the Iranian plan.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Marinakis is doing arithmetic; the rest of the Greek fleet is doing politics. Watch Oman, not Tehran. Whoever controls the legal alternative route controls whether Iran’s toll ever collects a dollar.
Dry bulk: one index, four different markets
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed the week at 2,722 points, finishing almost unchanged from the previous Friday despite a turbulent five-day journey that revealed a market pulling in four different directions at once. Beneath the headline number, Capesize strength offset persistent Panamax weakness, while Supramax and Handysize vessels continued their steady advance.
The week opened with broad pressure across the market. The BDI slipped from 2,720 points on Monday to 2,653 by Wednesday as Capesize earnings softened and Panamax rates retreated steadily. By Thursday, however, the divergence became unmistakable: Panamax continued falling while Supramax and Handysize segments extended their gains. Friday finally brought a sharp Capesize recovery, lifting the BDI 63 points and pushing the larger segment decisively back into the lead.
The Capesize market remained the week’s dominant force. The BCI climbed to 4,149 points by Friday, with average earnings rising to $37,631 per day from $36,756 on Monday and recovering sharply from Wednesday’s low of $35,162. The move was driven primarily by stronger activity on the C5 West Australia–China route, allowing the largest vessels to finish the week in positive territory despite the midweek pullback.
Panamax vessels told a very different story. The BPI fell 8.2% week-on-week to 2,096 points, with average earnings declining from $20,617 per day on Monday to $18,860 by Friday. Weakness across Atlantic grain and coal trades continued to weigh on sentiment, making Panamax the weakest-performing major segment of the week.
Smaller bulkers continued to outperform. The Baltic Supramax Index rose steadily throughout the week to 1,718 points, while average earnings increased from $21,039 to $21,715 per day. Handysize vessels followed the same trajectory, with the BHSI reaching 934 points and average earnings rising to $16,804 per day. The resilience of regional cargo flows and shorter-haul trades allowed both segments to advance even as larger vessel classes struggled to find direction.
BDI Daily Performance — Week 25, 2026
| Date | BDI | Capesize Earnings | Panamax Earnings | Supramax Earnings | Handysize Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jun | 2,720 | $36,756 | $20,617 | $21,039 | $16,289 |
| 16 Jun | 2,670 | $35,471 | $20,393 | $21,304 | $16,385 |
| 17 Jun | 2,653 | $35,162 | $20,009 | $21,558 | $16,502 |
| 18 Jun | 2,659 | $35,731 | $19,339 | $21,666 | $16,668 |
| 19 Jun | 2,722 | $37,631 | $18,860 | $21,715 | $16,804 |
Weekly Performance Snapshot
| Index | 12 Jun | 19 Jun | Change |
| BDI | 2,729 | 2,722 | 🔻 -7 pts (-0.26%) |
| BCI | 4,107 | 4,149 | 🔺 +42 pts (+1.02%) |
| BPI | 2,283 | 2,096 | 🔻 -187 pts (-8.20%) |
| BSI | 1,642 | 1,718 | 🔺 +76 pts (+4.63%) |
| BHSI | 900 | 934 | 🔺 +34 pts (+3.77%) |
Source: Baltic Exchange; HandyBulk, 15–19 June 2026
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: The BDI finished the week almost exactly where it started, but that stability is deceptive. Capes recovered, Panamaxes weakened, and smaller bulkers kept grinding higher. One index closed flat. Four markets told different stories.
Tankers: the theoretical number and the real one
This is where the week got genuinely interesting, and where the Saturday closure will matter most once it shows up in the data. The Baltic’s TD3C route (270,000mt Middle East Gulf–China) climbed to WS450.56, a daily round-trip TCE of close to $461,000 for the standard VLCC, a number that looks almost indifferent to the fact that the war it was pricing was declared over and then half-reversed in the same week. TD34 (Gulf of Oman–China) gained 73 points to WS218. The Atlantic basin firmed too: TD15 (West Africa–China) rose from WS124.13 to WS182.81, a TCE of $161,594, while TD22 (U.S. Gulf–China) rose by $2.68 million week-on-week to $19.56 million, corresponding to a daily round-trip TCE of just over $133,000.
The catch, as shipbrokers have been pointing out all week, is that TD3C reflects a forward assessment of VLCC earnings on the Middle East Gulf–China route at a time when many owners remained reluctant to return to the Strait of Hormuz. With liquidity returning, however briefly, that assessment methodology is about to be tested against reality. The forward curve already disagrees with the spot screen: the TD3C FFA for the fourth quarter sat at $181,163/day on Monday, less than half the spot print, while Baltic Exchange Atlantic basin VLCC indexes — based on ample data from actual fixtures — continue to trade roughly $300,000/day below Middle East Gulf assessments.
The clean tanker segment gave a far more honest read of where sentiment actually sits. TC1 (MEG–Japan, LR2) eased 6 points to WS492. TC14 (US Gulf–UK Continent, MR) crashed 19 points to WS152, a Baltic round-trip TCE of just $10,300 a day, down from levels that were paying triple that a month ago. The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE fell from $33,900 to $20,300 a day. Suezmax firmed modestly: TD20 (Nigeria–UKC) added 11 points to WS169, a TCE of $73,100.
Baltic Tanker Assessments — Week Ending 19 June 2026
| Route | Vessel | WS / $ | TCE $/day | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD3C ME Gulf/China | VLCC | WS450.56 | ~$461,000 | 🔺 firm |
| TD15 WAF/China | VLCC | WS182.81 | $161,594 | 🔺 +58.68 pts |
| TD22 USG/China | VLCC | — | ~$133,000 | 🔺 +$2.68m |
| TD20 Nigeria/UKC | Suezmax | WS169 | $73,100 | 🔺 +11 pts |
| TC1 MEG/Japan | LR2 | WS492 | — | 🔻 −6 pts |
| TC14 USG/UKC | MR | WS152 | $10,300 | 🔻 −19 pts |
| TC21 USG/Caribbean | MR | $603,000 | $13,500 | 🔻 −37% |
| MR Atlantic Basket | MR | — | $20,300 | 🔻 −$13,600 |
Source: Baltic Exchange Tanker Report, Week 25
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Two tanker markets are currently being quoted under one ticker, a hypothetical Gulf premium and an honest Atlantic discount. Whether the former survives contact with the next closure announcement is the only question that matters.
Containers: an eighteen-month high arrives precisely on schedule
The Drewry World Container Index jumped 12% to $3,969 per 40ft container on 18 June, its highest level in eighteen months, driven by Transpacific and Asia–Europe momentum. Shanghai–New York rose 15% to $6,769; Shanghai–Los Angeles climbed 10% to $5,142. Carriers are not shy about why: Maersk filed a Peak Season Surcharge of $1,000 per 20ft and $2,000 per 40ft effective 17 June, MSC introduced FAK rates of $6,000 per 40ft on Asia–North Europe from 15 June, and Drewry counted only a handful of blank sailings scheduled on the Transpacific for the coming week, a sign that carriers are managing capacity gently rather than aggressively. Shippers are openly front-loading volume ahead of the 1 July bunker adjustment reset and potential US tariff changes, producing the kind of early, genuine peak season that does not need geopolitical cover to justify itself.
Drewry World Container Index — Week 25, 18 June 2026
| Route | $/40ft | WoW |
|---|---|---|
| WCI Composite | $3,969 | 🔺 +12% |
| Shanghai → Rotterdam | $4,342 | 🔺 +15% |
| Shanghai → Genoa | $5,756 | 🔺 +12% |
| Shanghai → New York | $6,769 | 🔺 +15% |
| Shanghai → Los Angeles | $5,142 | 🔺 +10% |
| IACI (Intra-Asia) | $1,114 | 🔺 +1% |
Sources: Drewry World Container Index, 18 June 2026; Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index, 18 June 2026
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: This is a peak season with real cargo underneath it, which makes it the more durable of the week’s two freight stories. The test comes in Q3, when the front-loading fades and a reopened Hormuz, if it ever fully reopens, hands Cape-diverted capacity back to the system.
Bunkers: four straight days of decline
Global bunker prices fell for a fourth consecutive session on 17 June, with the MABUX World Bunker Index showing 380 HSFO at $610.03 a tonne (−$19.61), VLSFO at $760.04 (−$26.66) and MGO LS at $1,124.98 (−$22.75). MABUX expected the decline to extend into 18 June amid easing geopolitical tensions following the peace agreement, forecasting a further $5–30 per tonne fall across grades. The Global Scrubber Spread stayed comfortably above the $100 breakeven that keeps scrubber economics attractive, even as the broader fuel complex deflated through the week’s first half.
MABUX Bunker Price Movement (12–17 June 2026)
| Grade | 12 Jun | 17 Jun | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 380 HSFO | $695.38 | $610.03 | 🔻 −$85.35 |
| VLSFO | $852.31 | $760.04 | 🔻 −$92.27 |
| MGO LS | $1,275.99 | $1,124.98 | 🔻 −$151.01 |
| Global Scrubber Spread | $156.93 | Above $100 | — |
The 17 June figures represent a mid-week MABUX reading rather than a full Week 25 closing assessment, which had not been published at time of writing. Source: Container News / MABUX
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Bunkers and freight deflated together through midweek, then Saturday happened. If Monday’s prints reverse higher, this market has finally stopped treating Hormuz headlines as noise.
Gas carriers: the spot market softens, the long game gets longer
The LPG and LNG spot markets gave their own quiet confirmation of the week’s direction. VLGC rates fell across every major route amid softer arbitrage economics and expectations that Gulf trading patterns could gradually normalise: the BLPG1 (Ras Tanura–Chiba) route settled at $199.38, a TCE of $194,459/day, while BLPG2 (Houston–Flushing) corrected hardest, down $36.50 to $110.00, a TCE of $119,975/day. LNG softened more modestly, with BLNG2 (US Gulf–Continent) falling $11,900 to $92,500/day and BLNG3 (U.S. Gulf–Japan) down $11,200 to $103,100/day, while the longer-dated time-charter curve stayed essentially flat, the six-month rate edging up $500 to $101,400/day.
Baltic Gas Carrier Assessments — Week 25, 19 June 2026
| Route | Index ($/MT or $/day) | TCE $/day | WoW |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLPG1 Ras Tanura/Chiba | $199.38 | $194,459 | 🔻 softer |
| BLPG2 Houston/Flushing | $110.00 | $119,975 | 🔻 −$36.50/MT (TCE −$48,468) |
| BLPG3 Houston/Chiba | $190.00 | $101,151 | 🔻 −$69.83/MT (TCE −$51,263) |
| BLNG1 Australia/Japan | — | $80,200 | 🔻 −$1,667 |
| BLNG2 USG/Continent | — | $92,500 | 🔻 −$11,900 |
| BLNG3 USG/Japan | — | $103,100 | 🔻 −$11,200 |
| 6-month TC | — | $101,400 | 🔺 +$500 |
| 1-year TC | — | $80,033 | 🔻 −$234 |
| 3-year TC | — | $80,200 | 🔺 +$200 |
Source: Baltic Exchange Gas Report, Week 25
Away from the spot screen, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines signed two Heads of Agreement with JERA on 18 June covering two very large gas carriers to move low-carbon ammonia from the Blue Point Project in Louisiana to JERA’s Hekinan power station from around fiscal year 2029, with NYK signing a parallel pair of agreements the same day. It is a small announcement set against a week dominated by ceasefire diplomacy and its collapse, but it belongs in the same column: gas carrier owners are still placing multi-decade bets on ammonia and LNG infrastructure regardless of what the strait is doing on any given Saturday.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Spot VLGC and LNG rates fell across the board this week, while the multi-year time-charter curve barely moved. Multi-decade ammonia commitments signed the same week a war supposedly ends, then doesn’t quite, are a useful tell: the gas carrier segment’s capital horizon runs in years, not news cycles, and it didn’t blink once.
Sale and purchase: twelve deals, a holiday, and prices refusing to blink
Lion Shipbrokers counted 12 bulk carrier transactions during week 25, a noticeably slower week with China closed for the Dragon Boat Festival, but one in which asset prices stayed exactly where post-Posidonia momentum left them. The post-Posidonia surge in transactions has cooled into “highly resilient at multi-year highs,” in the shipbroker’s own phrasing, even as the softening freight market induces some short-term caution among buyers.
The standout post-panamax sale was the Lady Deena (182,588 dwt, built 2020 JMU/Japan), sold off-market for in excess of $66 million, a price broadly in line with April’s sale of the one-year-older sister Lowlands Spirit at $65 million. The Levante (93,207 dwt, 2012 Jiangsu) went for $15.6 million, while the one-year-older sister Ocean Artemis fetched $15 million the week before on a surveys-passed basis, a tight, orderly progression that tells you the post-panamax market knows exactly where it sits. In Kamsarmax, the Mont Blanc Hawk (81,638 dwt, 2017 Imabari) cleared $32.8 million via Japanese auction-style sale. On the tanker side, the Suezmax Cosmo Sail (159,233 dwt, 2007 Hyundai Samho) sold for around $50 million, in line with last month’s Aegean Horizon at $50.1 million, while a newbuild LR2 resale, the ShanhaiguanP110K-70 (114,800 dwt, delivered 2026), went to Turkish buyers (Ditas) for $90 million.
Selected S&P Benchmarks — Week 25, 2026
| Vessel | Type | Dwt / Year | Price | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lady Deena | Post-Panamax | 183k / 2020 | $66m+ | Undisclosed |
| Levante | Post-Panamax | 93k / 2012 | $15.6m | UAE |
| Mont Blanc Hawk | Kamsarmax | 82k / 2017 | $32.8m | Undisclosed |
| Vulcania | Kamsarmax | 82k / 2015 | $26m | Greek (T/C attached) |
| African Tern | Supramax | 58k / 2013 | $19m+ | Undisclosed |
| Lila Cumberland | Supramax | 57k / 2013 | $16m+ | UAE (ADNOC) |
| Santa Rita | Supramax | 56k / 2010 | $17.4m | Greek |
| Poyang | Handysize | 40k / 2016 | $19.4m | Undisclosed |
| Cosmo Sail | Suezmax | 159k / 2007 | $50m | Undisclosed |
| Shanhaiguan P110K-70 | LR2 (newbuild resale) | 115k / 2026 | $90m | Turkish (Ditas) |
| Seriana | LR2 | 110k / 2015 | $72m | Indian (GESCO) |
| Sandpiper Pacific | MR2 | 52k / 2013 | $32m | Undisclosed |
Sources: Lion Shipbrokers Weekly Report, Week 25; Advanced Market Report, Week 25
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Twelve deals during a Chinese holiday week, with sister-ships landing within a few hundred thousand dollars of each other, is conviction, not froth. The asset desks appear to have priced a version of this outcome weeks ago and have shown little inclination to revise since.
Newbuilding and corporate moves: consolidation in chemical tankers, a decisive vote in dry bulk
Eastern Pacific Shipping, the Singapore-based group controlled by Idan Ofer, announced an immediate exit from the chemical tanker segment on 17 June, selling its entire 14-vessel fleet, including three newbuildings, in an en-bloc transaction split between Ace Tankers and Womar Tankers. Seven vessels, ranging 19,000–26,000 dwt, stay under Ace’s commercial management; the other seven, including the newbuilds, move to Womar. EPS framed the sale as portfolio discipline, freeing capital for its four core segments of container, dry bulk, gas and tankers, where the group already carries an orderbook exceeding 150 vessels. The deal extends a consolidation wave that has already seen MOL Chemical Tankers absorb Fairfield Chemical Tankers and Stolt-Nielsen buy out Odfjell’s stake in their joint venture.
The week’s other defining corporate story resolved decisively rather than dramatically. Genco Shipping & Trading’s shareholders convened their Annual Meeting on 18 June and re-elected all six of the company’s board nominees, with Genco reporting that roughly 90% of shares outside Diana Shipping’s own stake voted in the board’s favour. Shareholders also ratified Genco’s shareholder rights agreement and equity incentive plan, voting down both of Diana’s board nominees, Jens Ismar and Paul Cornell, in the process. Diana’s all-cash tender offer for Genco, raised to $24.80 a share in May, technically remains live until 26 June, but a defeated proxy contest the week before the offer’s own deadline is not a position from which acquisitions typically get completed.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Shareholders looked at a fully financed $24.80 offer and backed the sitting board nine-to-one. Diana’s tender survives on paper until 26 June; its leverage didn’t survive the vote.
Ship recycling: peace signed, rains reign, peace wobbles
The end of the war landed on the recycling market with unusual clarity this week, at least until Saturday complicated it. GMS’s own headline said it best on Friday: peace signed, rains reign. The collapse in Brent and the reopening of the strait removed the two forces, the bunker-cost floor and the Capesize war premium, that had kept ageing tonnage profitably trading at sea for eleven weeks, which means the deferred wave of recycling candidates was being primed to release just as the report went to print. The problem was always timing: that wave sails directly into the deep Bay of Bengal monsoon, which governs the beaching calendar across the subcontinent through August regardless of how favourable the macro backdrop becomes, and now it also has to contend with a strait whose reopening is no longer a settled fact.
Currency moves split exactly along the line the war drew, and held through the weekend reversal. The Indian rupee, Pakistani rupee and Bangladeshi taka all firmed or held steady as Hormuz-exposed oil importers; the Turkish lira alone broke to a fresh record low, its problems entirely domestic and untouched by the peace deal. In Bangladesh, recyclers stepped back from several weeks of aggressive bidding, correcting prices roughly $25–30/LDT across categories after the government’s budget delivered only a modest VAT increase rather than the heavier taxation breakers had feared. India’s market stayed soft on weak local fundamentals even as a genuine shortage of available candidates kept recyclers buying to sustain yard capacity rather than on improving economics. Pakistan held flat, and Türkiye continued to soften.
GMS Market Rankings — Week 25, 2026 (USD/LDT)
| Rank | Location | Sentiment | Dry Bulk | Tankers | Containers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bangladesh | Steady | 460–465 | 480–485 | 490–495 |
| 2 | Pakistan | Steady | 445–450 | 465–470 | 475–480 |
| 3 | India | Steady | 420–425 | 440–445 | 450–455 |
| 4 | Türkiye | Softening | 268–270 | 278–280 | 288–290 |
Source: GMS Weekly, Ship Recycling Market Insight, Week 25
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Cheap bunkers, a deflating Capesize premium and firming currencies arrived all at once, then the diplomacy wobbled before the candidate wave finished forming. The yards now answer to two calendars, a monsoon and a war, and neither keeps the other’s schedule.
Greek shipping: 931 reasons not to stand still
Greek shipping spent the week balancing two very different realities. While debate over a future Hormuz transit fee continued, owners focused on fleet renewal, ordering activity and the momentum generated at Posidonia 2026.
Union of Greek Shipowners president Melina Travlos used the exhibition’s closing press conference to defend the sector’s record orderbook of 931 vessels, the largest in 25 years, as evidence Greek shipping is “leading fleet renewal and environmental performance,” while pushing back on what she characterised as EU decarbonisation targets that have “dragged” shipping toward goals beyond the IMO’s own 2050 framework.
On the financing side, Xclusiv Shipbrokers’ five-month tally underlined just how dominant Greek capital has become in tanker contracting: of 280 tanker orders placed globally between January and May, Greek owners accounted for 111 vessels, almost 40% of the total, representing roughly $10.2 billion, or 41% of global tanker newbuilding spend, concentrated heavily in VLCCs and Suezmaxes.
🔭 GeoTrends outlook: Markets spent the week repricing risk. Greek owners spent it ordering ships. One activity reacts to events. The other assumes a view of the future and commits billions to it.