The international shipping community is on high alert following Israel’s pre-emptive strike on 13 June 2025. While there have been no confirmed hits on commercial vessels or disruptions to oil flows, authorities remain highly vigilant. The Strait of Hormuz—a 50 km-wide chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman—is once again at the center of geopolitical tensions. With approximately 20–25% of global oil passing through it, any disruption could have immediate implications for global shipping and energy markets.
Maritime security levels have been raised across the region. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has warned of increased threat levels for vessels transiting Hormuz. Similarly, the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has cautioned that the proximity of military flashpoints to commercial lanes heightens the risk of rapid escalation, underscoring the fluidity and volatility of the situation.
Although no direct navigational impact has been recorded, analysts warn that the region’s fragility means minor incidents could trigger larger crises. Oil prices responded sharply, rising 5–12% in the immediate aftermath of the strike. As of 08:30 GMT on 13 June, Brent crude was up by ~6%, trading around $73.5, after peaking intraday at $78.5.
Reports of incidents and route diversions
No confirmed attacks against commercial vessels have occurred since the Israeli operation. Iranian retaliation has so far targeted military infrastructure—reportedly including missile launches toward Israel—without directly threatening maritime assets. According to the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum, the country’s oil infrastructure remains intact and Gulf oil flows continue unimpeded. However, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s statement that the “Zionist regime should expect harsh punishment” has renewed concerns over potential indirect attacks through regional proxies.
Within the shipping industry, behavioral shifts are emerging. Several owners are already expressing caution regarding cargo loadings from the Middle East, particularly in the event of further escalation. According to Argus, some chartering brokers anticipate a sharp spike in regional freight rates—on par with previous crises such as the Ukraine war in 2022 or the early Red Sea disruptions by Houthi forces in 2023. Notably, Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates for Gulf-to-Asia routes have jumped by ~25%, from $10.28 to $12.85/ton, since 13 June.
Historical parallels confirm such trends: during the Iran–Israel crisis of April 2024, Long Range 2 tanker rates from the Middle East to Europe rose from $4.8 million to $6.4 million in under a week, as vessels avoided Hormuz. While summer demand softness may temper rate volatility, many owners are already rerouting or pausing operations in the region until stability returns.
Concerns are also rising over potential closures. Although Iran has not explicitly threatened to shut Hormuz—a rhetorical tactic it has used before—alternative export routes are being considered. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are reportedly preparing to increase use of overland pipelines (e.g., the East–West Pipeline to the Red Sea). Meanwhile, China, a top consumer of Middle Eastern oil, has a vested interest in keeping Hormuz open and may apply diplomatic pressure to de-escalate tensions.
International organizations and industry reactions on maritime security
International bodies such as the IMO (International Maritime Organization) and BIMCO (Baltic and International Maritime Council) are closely monitoring the situation and issuing updated guidance. Lloyd’s List reports growing alarm within shipping circles, particularly regarding the potential for the conflict to spill over. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s Head of Maritime Security, warned that a direct Israel–Iran conflict could temporarily close the Strait of Hormuz and trigger steep oil price increases. While he views a direct impact on shipping as unlikely in the short term, he emphasized the risk of escalation involving regional powers like the U.S., which could significantly disrupt commercial navigation.
Industry leaders echo these concerns. Paolo d’Amico, Chairman of INTERTANKO (International Association of Independent Tanker Owners), highlighted that nearly 30% of global crude oil passes through Hormuz, warning that any threat to the waterway would endanger energy supply to the Western world. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) condemned all targeting of commercial vessels and called for strict adherence to international navigation law. As early as April 2025, the ICS had already flagged mounting anxiety within the industry over geopolitical instability.
Shipping firms and brokers are adopting a cautious stance. Representatives from four of the world’s largest tanker companies—collectively operating fleets with over 300 million barrels of capacity—stated they remain alert but have not yet enacted major operational changes. However, firms like Frontline are already showing reluctance to dispatch vessels into the region. CEO Lars Barstad described the company’s posture as “extremely cautious.” Similarly, Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines has instructed vessels to maintain a 12-nautical-mile distance from strike areas in the Gulf of Oman. INTERCARGO (association for dry bulk carriers) and other industry bodies are also raising crew safety concerns, describing the situation as “at the highest level of tension short of declared war.”
New guidelines for vessels with Israeli, U.S., or neutral affiliations
Governments and maritime authorities have issued emergency advisories aimed at protecting vessels with Israeli or U.S. affiliations, which are seen as potential targets for retaliation.
Israeli/U.S.-linked vessels: Maritime security firms are urging maximum vigilance. Diaplous Group has noted a heightened risk of vessel seizures involving Israeli or U.S.-flagged/owned ships. U.S. authorities issued NAVWARNS as early as 12 June, advising commercial ships to monitor sensitive zones and maintain safe standoff distances. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet has increased patrols in the Strait and is requesting advance transit notifications from U.S.-flagged ships.
Neutral or other national vessels: Nations uninvolved in the conflict are also enhancing protections. Greek authorities have requested real-time reports on all Greek-owned vessels in Hormuz and advised temporary avoidance of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden—areas with heightened Houthi rebel activity. The UK Department for Transport issued similar guidance, directing British-flagged ships (including Gibraltar/Bermuda registries) to avoid the southern Red Sea unless absolutely necessary. If transit is unavoidable, the highest security protocols must be followed, including minimized crew exposure on deck.
General guidance: Updated Best Management Practices (BMP) are being disseminated widely. Ships of all flags are urged to maintain contact with UKMTO and USNAVCENT, avoid proximity to Iranian waters, adopt discreet deck lighting at night, and continuously transmit AIS in safe mode. Captains are advised to raise ISPS security levels (Level 3) in high-risk areas and prepare emergency response procedures. Unnecessary port calls in the region should be avoided.
Insurance coverage and premiums
The conflict is directly affecting the marine insurance market, particularly war risk coverage. The London underwriters’ Joint War Committee has classified the Gulf as a Listed Area since 2019, but current events are prompting insurers to reassess exposure.
Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRP): Extra war risk charges are being considered, potentially making Gulf shipments more expensive and administratively complex. According to Argus, rising insurance costs could feed back into freight rates, especially if the crisis endures. A chartering broker noted, “If the conflict continues, insurers will raise premiums—owners will demand more to take on that risk.”
Premium increases already underway: Historical precedent points to sharp hikes. Following tanker attacks in June 2019, AWRP for VLCCs surged from ~$50,000 to ~$185,000 per voyage. A similar trend may now be unfolding. While immediate post-attack costs have not yet fully adjusted, market sentiment suggests premium hikes are imminent.
Sources:
• Maritime Trade and Industry News Outlets (Lloyd’s List, BIMCO)
• International News Agencies (Reuters, Bloomberg, Argus Media)
• Insurance and Freight Market Analyses (Insurance Journal, GCaptain, Argus)