“Clearly this isn’t good news for the global economy, stability, and trade,” noted Maersk in its assessment of Trump’s sweeping tariffs. With these measures expected to send advanced economies back into industrial recession, the shipping industry is facing an unprecedented period of disruption.
Key U.S. trading partners, including China, South Korea, Japan, and the EU, have vowed to retaliate, adding to the volatility. However, until their countermeasures are fully revealed, major shifts in global shipping routes and costs remain unclear.
Container sector bears the brunt
The most immediate impact will be felt in the container sector, which is highly exposed to global trade flows. Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, highlights the risks: “From a shipping perspective, the container sector will be affected the most. Many tanker and dry bulk commodities have so far been exempted from the tariff increases, but most goods shipped in containers will face import tariff increases.”
Shippers have already responded with precautionary measures. “We’re likely to see some rush air freight orders in the U.S. ahead of the announced tariffs going into effect,” a Maersk spokesperson said. “It is also likely we will see an increase in demand for bonded storage as customers will want to hold off clearing goods while they get more certainty.”
Hapag-Lloyd echoed this sentiment, warning that the tariffs could impact demand, cargo flows, and costs, leading to adjustments in service networks.
Supply chains under pressure
The global shipping industry relies on intricate supply chains that are now under severe stress. Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Supply Chain Industry Practice Lead at Moody’s, points out that while some U.S. companies are looking at domestic manufacturing opportunities, this will only provide modest cost advantages. “With limited options for cost management as tariffs drive up prices, supply chain professionals should prioritize reliability and resilience in their existing supply base,” he said.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has also warned of higher costs. “Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer. Tariffs will not be paid by foreign countries or suppliers,” said David French, NRF’s Executive Vice President of Government Relations. “Even more so, the immediate implementation of these tariffs is a massive undertaking and requires both advance notice and substantial preparation by the millions of U.S. businesses that will be directly impacted.”
Industry braces for retaliatory measures
Maersk has urged its customers to stay agile. “Given several scenarios remain possible, customers will need the ability to speed up or slow down goods and potentially redirect flows to alternative markets to keep their goods moving efficiently.”
However, the widespread nature of the tariffs means that rerouting trade is not a viable option until more clarity emerges. “We may see many goods travelling in a less direct way going forward than currently is the case,” explained Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta.
Even major shipping alliances are struggling to respond effectively. While independent operators like Mediterranean Shipping Co. may have more flexibility, alliance members must make joint decisions that could delay responses to shifting market conditions.
Automotive and port disruptions
Beyond containerized goods, foreign-built cars are another major casualty. Fearnley Securities has warned that the new tariffs could push earnings and volumes down for car carriers. The U.S. imported over four million cars by sea in 2024, and a 10% decline in sales could reduce demand by 40 car carriers. Japanese and South Korean exporters, in particular, are expected to feel the squeeze.
This, in turn, will have knock-on effects on major container ports. Investment in Vietnam, for instance, could take a hit as trade volumes drop. Port congestion is also a growing concern, especially with U.S. port levy proposals adding to operational costs.
Shipping leaders weigh the long-term impact
“These are turbulent times for global trade and the shipping industry,” cautioned Guy Platten, Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Shipping. “The evidence shows that tariffs will adversely affect all countries. Along with the proposal to charge fees on Chinese ships calling at U.S. ports—which I testified to the USTR hearing in Washington last week has the potential to significantly disrupt global trade—they will also hurt U.S. consumers and exporters.”
“ICS has long advocated for free trade, as this is the new way to grow all economies,” Platten added.
While short-term volatility is certain, long-term effects will depend on how trade relationships evolve. Until retaliatory tariffs are fully detailed, global shipping remains in a state of uncertainty, with companies scrambling to navigate an unpredictable landscape.
The uncertain future: Who benefits, who loses?
The biggest question remains: how will the global economy and trade routes reshape in response to these sweeping tariffs?
- Winners: Countries like India and Malaysia may benefit from shifting supply chains, but long-term infrastructure and capacity constraints could limit their gains.
- Losers: Southeast Asian economies (Vietnam, Thailand) that previously thrived as alternatives to China now face their own steep barriers.
As the world waits for countermeasures from China, Japan, South Korea, and the EU, shipping companies must navigate an environment defined by uncertainty. For now, one truth remains: flexibility is the only lifeline.