In a detailed Forbes report authored by Sergei Klebnikov, fifty of Wall Street’s most influential leaders were surveyed to assess the early performance of Trump’s economic playbook as he returned to the Oval Office. The findings offer a sobering verdict on both the policy and the man implementing it.
Two months into his term, enthusiasm among America’s financial elite is quickly eroding. The Forbes survey targeted billionaire investors, major institutional managers, and top wealth advisors—those whose market influence is measurable and meaningful. Their collective view? That Trump’s economic playbook has not only failed to deliver results—it’s actively damaging.
Wall Street rebels: Numbers that speak loudly
According to the Forbes data:
- 72% of respondents now say Trump’s economic playbook is ineffective.
- 66% do not support his policies.
- Among previous supporters, more than one-third have withdrawn support.
- Of those who still identify as supporters, 54% believe Trump is failing to execute his plan.
The disillusionment is quantifiable. Forbes asked these leaders to rate specific areas of Trump’s economic approach on a 1-to-5 scale. The results are as grim as a recession forecast.
- Tariffs: 1.86/5—with 27 respondents giving him the lowest possible score.
- Stock market impact: 1.96/5—25 respondents rated it 1/5.
- Executive orders targeting law firms: 2.10/5—considered an affront to the legal foundation of U.S. capitalism.
- Cryptocurrency policies: 2.0/5—a digital cold shoulder.
- Inflation strategy: 2.16/5—few buy what he’s selling.
Only two areas showed faint signs of optimism:
- Deregulation: 3.08/5—an old GOP classic still finding friends.
- DOGE (a government cost-cutting initiative chaired by Elon Musk): 2.96/5—quirky, but mildly effective.
A trade policy that shook the Globe
The centerpiece of Trump’s economic playbook—his aggressive “reciprocal tariffs” policy—triggered immediate global shockwaves. Under this approach, a baseline 10% tariff is applied to all imports, with additional penalties for nations deemed to be giving the U.S. a raw deal.
The market response was brutal:
- S&P 500: -4.8% (largest drop since 2020)
- Dow Jones: -4%
- Nasdaq: -6%
- U.S. dollar: -1% against major currencies including the euro and the yen
“This is alarming and unsettling,” said Anh Tran, managing partner at SageMint Wealth (managing $350M), who appeared in Forbes’ Shook Top Wealth Management Teams list. “Everyone is now thinking about how to create downside protection.”
Economists ring the alarm
While Trump defends the tariffs as fair retaliation for decades of “abuse” from trade partners, economists are unconvinced. The administration’s method of calculating trade “unfairness” has drawn criticism for its simplicity and lack of economic nuance.
Preston Caldwell, chief U.S. economist for Morningstar, pulled no punches in a recent research note, calling the tariff policy a “self-inflicted economic catastrophe.”
“If the tariff hikes are maintained,” he wrote, “they will permanently reduce U.S. real GDP, and hence real living standards for the average American.”
He even evoked history: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, a sweeping trade law that helped plunge the world into the Great Depression. And once again, protectionism may be leading the U.S. economy into troubled waters.
The consumer takes the hit
As in any trade war, the consumer is the first casualty. The tariffs embedded in Trump’s economic playbook will raise prices on everything from groceries to gas.
Analysts at UBS predict U.S. GDP growth could drop to below 2% this year, down from 2.8% in 2024. Deutsche Bank is even more pessimistic, warning of a broader slowdown.
“Expect lower growth and earnings forecasts, with added upside risk to inflation,” said Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial. “This is not a good combination for equity markets.”
Not all sectors suffer equally. The auto industry appears to have avoided the worst thanks to pre-existing protections. But retailers, particularly those in apparel, are bracing for the impact. Heavy reliance on imports from China and Vietnam means steep tariff hikes will be passed directly to American consumers—fast fashion, now with fast inflation.
The psychology of a sell-one
“Investor psychology has been destroyed, and dip buyers are nowhere to be seen,” noted Adam Crisafull, founder of Vital Knowledge, in a recent memo. “All the efforts to spin recent events positively are increasingly falling flat.”
In the face of free-falling confidence, portfolio managers and asset strategists are scrambling to contain risk. That includes diversifying away from U.S. equities, shifting capital toward inflation-hedged assets, and advising clients to brace for instability.
Chris Zaccarelli, CIO of Northlight Asset Management (handling $450 million), was blunt: “Few people would have predicted that all of the optimism from last year would evaporate in two short months.”
The underlying message from Wall Street’s heaviest hitters is clear: whatever momentum Trump rode back into office is rapidly dissipating under the weight of his own decisions.
When the cure is worse than the condition
The irony is hard to miss. Trump billed himself as the businessman-president who would turbocharge American markets. But according to Forbes, the very market movers who once cheered him are now pricing in disaster. Instead of the master dealmaker, they see an erratic tactician deploying blunt instruments in delicate ecosystems.
In just eight weeks, Trump’s economic playbook has alienated allies, panicked investors, and puzzled economists. It may not be the worst strategy America’s seen—though it’s giving Smoot and Hawley a run for their money.
After all, only Donald Trump could start with “Liberation Day” and end up liberating the markets of their optimism. A truly free market, one might say—free of confidence.