The numbers are in: China-Africa trade didn’t collapse, it meandered. And in this economy, meandering is practically a standing ovation.
Trade between the dragon and the continent nudged up by 2.7% in Q1, hitting $72.6 billion. Not exactly fireworks, but given the tantrum-prone trade climate courtesy of the United States, it’s remarkable the whole thing didn’t nosedive into a ditch.
Chinese exports to Africa surged 11.3% (someone’s buying batteries, it seems), while imports from Africa dipped by 9.4%. So yes, the balance is skewed—but it always has been. If you were hoping for equitable development, this isn’t your bedtime story.
America, the trade therapist
Enter President Donald J. Trump—the man who sees a reciprocal tariff like most people see a handshake. His return to form with a barrage of “punitive” levies, some as theatrical as 50% on select African exports, has taken a predictable toll. Lesotho and Madagascar, for example, watched their textile sectors wince.
But for now, the tariffs are on a 90-day pause. A geopolitical snooze button, if you will. Still, uncertainty looms, and for many African nations that had banked on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the message from Washington is clear: don’t get comfortable.
Meanwhile in Beijing
As Washington pouts, Beijing plays the long game—or rather, reads from a script it wrote in 2000. Chinese Ambassador to the African Union, Hu Changchun, reassured a room full of diplomatic attendees in Addis Ababa that Beijing’s door remains wide open. Particularly to the 33 least-developed African countries who now enjoy duty-free access to the Chinese market.
Hu wasn’t mincing words: China will keep fighting the “unilateral bullying” of the U.S. and keep the doors of trade wide open. Of course, this also means more African exports of nuts, fruit, and soybeans to a nation of 1.4 billion who’d rather not eat American almonds.
Single-digit growth, single-minded intent
According to geoeconomics analyst Aly-Khan Satchu, even this modest growth in China-Africa trade counts as a win. Why? Because the context is an international mess, and most African currencies are tap dancing on quicksand.
As reported by the South China Morning Post, Satchu points out that this “single-digit uptick” is not just a number but a symptom of deeper integration. Over time, China-Africa trade will evolve further, he claims, into a structure where more trade is managed by Africans themselves—less reliance on imports, more control on the ground. A benign-sounding way of saying, “We’ll teach you to fish, but we’ll still own the lake.”
South Africa: From darling to downturn
Nowhere is the contrast more glaring than in South Africa. China’s most important African partner saw bilateral trade fall a dramatic 29.5% in Q1. Chinese imports from South Africa plunged 43.2%.
Why the nosedive? Minerals, mostly. Gold, platinum, iron ore—all once hot commodities in China’s backyard barbecue of industry. But China recently rekindled its mineral bromance with Australia. South Africa, temporarily useful during Beijing-Canberra hostilities, is now getting ghosted.
Satchu is blunt: “South Africa enjoyed windfall gains as China squeezed Australia, a squeeze which is easing up.”
Agriculture to the rescue?
South Africa is now betting on apples, wine, meat, and wool to make up for lost gold. And it’s not alone. African nations across the continent see food as the golden ticket to Beijing’s belly.
Wandile Sihlobo, the ever-practical chief economist at South Africa’s Agricultural Business Chamber, sees untapped potential in China-Africa trade—particularly agricultural exports. He argues for a structured export strategy to the Chinese market, which currently devours over $200 billion in farm products annually.
It’s a smart move. Food is apolitical. Rarely has a grape started a war.
The imbalance is structural, not accidental
China-Africa trade has never been equal. The continent mostly exports raw materials. China sends back everything else: electronics, machinery, batteries, even toothbrushes. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa flagged the issue last year at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), but let’s be honest: polite discontent doesn’t rebalance trade.
What would help? Processing minerals locally before export. Creating regional value chains. But these things take time, electricity, and functioning ports—all of which are in shorter supply than speeches about development.
Why China keeps winning
China doesn’t panic. While Western democracies are busy tying themselves into electoral pretzels, Beijing just builds. Infrastructure, ports, pipelines, rail—all with Chinese loans and Chinese firms. The continent gets roads, and China gets trade routes.
And despite the grumbling in Western think tanks, this arrangement has proven durable. Because in the end, African leaders want deals, not lectures. And China, whatever else it may be, is always ready to deal.
What’s next for China-Africa trade?
The story of China-Africa trade is not a heroic narrative. It’s transactional. Strategic. Often asymmetrical. But it works—because both sides know what they want.
African nations want capital, jobs, and markets. China wants resources, access, and allies in global forums. And while America tantrums about tariffs and fairness, China lays down train tracks.
One builds. One bickers.
And Africa, for now, is riding with the builder.