Ukraine is famous for its wheat fields, but its real treasure lies beneath. The Ukrainian Shield, a 2.5-billion-year-old chunk of the Earth’s crust, holds a staggering concentration of critical minerals. These aren’t just shiny rocks; they are the backbone of modern technology and clean energy. And with 22 out of 34 minerals deemed essential by the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, Ukraine’s mineral wealth is a geopolitical jackpot.
The problem? War. Russia’s invasion has disrupted mining operations, making Ukraine’s resources more valuable—and contested—than ever. But despite the bombs, the global hunger for these materials keeps growing.
The lithium rush: Ukraine’s white gold
Lithium, the lifeblood of electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage, is at the heart of the scramble. Prices have skyrocketed from $1,500 per ton in the 1990s to over $20,000 per ton today. And demand? It’s set to increase 40-fold by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Ukraine has three major lithium deposits:
- Shevchenkivske (Donetsk region) – A lithium-rich spodumene reserve of 13.8 million tons.
- Polokhivske (Kirovograd region) – An estimated 270,000 tons, making it one of Europe’s most economically viable lithium sources.
- Stankuvatske (Kirovograd region) – Another high-potential site waiting for investment.
Mining these sites requires heavy capital. For Shevchenkivske alone, $10-20 million is needed just for exploration. But once extracted, Ukraine’s lithium could power millions of EV batteries, cutting Western dependence on China’s lithium monopoly.
Beyond lithium: A powerhouse of rare minerals
Lithium is just the beginning. Ukraine’s mineral wealth includes:
- Titanium – Essential for aerospace and military tech. Ukraine is the world’s third-largest producer of rutile, a primary titanium source.
- Manganese – Key for steelmaking and EV batteries. Ukraine holds the largest proven reserves globally, with 2.4 billion tons in the Nikopol Basin.
- Iron ore – The sixth-largest reserves in the world.
- Rare earth elements (REEs) – Including neodymium and dysprosium, which power everything from smartphones to wind turbines.
- Uranium – Ukraine has Europe’s largest uranium reserves, crucial for nuclear energy and defense.
The U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal: Business or power play?
While Ukraine fights on the battlefield, Washington is making its move in the boardroom. A proposed minerals agreement would see Ukraine hand over 50% of future proceeds from its state-owned resources to a U.S.-Ukraine reconstruction fund. Kyiv and Washington would jointly manage this pot, ensuring Ukraine’s minerals fuel its post-war recovery.
For the U.S., this is about more than just helping Ukraine. It’s about securing an independent supply of critical minerals, free from Chinese control. The U.S. has its own lithium in Nevada and North Carolina, but high labor costs, environmental regulations, and reliance on imports have kept domestic production limited. Instead of competing, the U.S. prefers to secure foreign mineral sources—by any means necessary.
China, Russia, and the looming resource war
China currently dominates the global supply chain for lithium and rare earths, controlling 60% of rare earth mining and 85% of processing capacity. Ukraine’s reserves present a golden opportunity to break Beijing’s grip—which is exactly why China is interested in them, too.
Meanwhile, Russia isn’t just fighting Ukraine for land—it’s fighting for resources. The war has severely disrupted Ukrainian mining, but Moscow’s long-term strategy is clear: keep Ukraine unstable, prevent Western control over its mineral wealth, and secure access for itself. If Ukraine’s resources remain untapped, it benefits Russia’s own mineral exports.
Who will control Ukraine’s minerals?
Once the war ends, Ukraine could become a global mineral superpower. If stability returns, international investment will flood in, and Ukraine’s mineral wealth could drive its economic revival. Even with 50% allocated to the U.S., Ukraine stands to gain billions in revenue, funding its reconstruction, industries, and workforce. The future of Ukraine’s mineral wealth is still uncertain, but one thing is clear: the world isn’t just watching this war for political reasons—it’s watching for profit.