It takes a special kind of genius to wage economic warfare on a country and simultaneously make it richer. Yet, here we are again. The latest U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil trade—part of Trump’s ever-refreshing “maximum pressure” strategy—promise to obliterate Tehran’s financial lifelines. Instead, they reinforce China’s status as the world’s largest buyer of discounted sanctioned oil while nudging the European Union further away from Washington’s embrace.
The U.S. Treasury has blacklisted more than 30 entities linked to Iran’s “shadow fleet”—a network of vessels, brokers, and front companies that keep Iranian crude flowing despite previous sanctions. Among them, the Marshal Ship Management, a firm run by Ryan Xavier Aranha, allegedly provides crews to tankers shuttling oil to China under layers of forged paperwork. Another day, another villain in Trump’s geopolitical soap opera.
The “Axis of Evasion” gets richer
While the U.S. flexes its sanctions muscle, China, Iran, and Venezuela—the so-called “Axis of Evasion”—find themselves in an oddly lucrative position. Unable to sell oil through conventional channels, Iran offloads crude to China at steep discounts. Beijing, ever the opportunist, buys barrels for a fraction of the market price while Washington watches in horror.
Iran’s shadow fleet has perfected the art of deception: ship-to-ship transfers, GPS manipulation, and reflagging vessels under obscure registries. The U.S. State Department seems aghast at this blatant defiance, as if it had not been happening for years. Meanwhile, European capitals sigh in quiet exasperation as they watch another predictable failure of American coercive diplomacy unfold.
Europe’s growing indifference
Once upon a time, U.S. sanctions carried weight across the Atlantic. Today, the Europeans have grown weary of Washington’s erratic foreign policy. While Trump doubles down on his hardline stance, the EU has been steadily working on mechanisms—such as INSTEX—to facilitate trade with Iran despite American restrictions.
Paris, Berlin, and Brussels have little appetite for another round of U.S.-induced economic instability. The continent is already grappling with post-pandemic debt, an energy crisis, and the never-ending headache of managing relations with China. The last thing Europe needs is another Trumpian crusade that disrupts global markets while delivering zero strategic benefits.
The unintended gift to China
By seeking to erase Iran’s oil revenues, Trump has gifted China an energy monopoly in the region. Beijing now enjoys access to heavily discounted crude from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia—nations under U.S. sanctions that find in China a willing buyer.
Washington’s European allies, meanwhile, have been left to choose between expensive American LNG and the political tightrope of maintaining relations with China. Unsurprisingly, many are opting for the latter. The result? A strategic shift that sees China expanding its influence at the expense of a flailing U.S. sanctions regime.
The fragile illusion of “maximum pressure”
Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach to Iran is based on a flawed assumption: that economic strangulation will force Tehran into submission. Yet, history suggests otherwise. The Islamic Republic has endured decades of sanctions, finding creative ways to sustain itself, from illicit oil sales to cyber warfare.
By choking Iran’s oil trade, Trump achieves little beyond emboldening its black-market economy and driving it deeper into Beijing’s orbit. Worse still, these policies undermine the legitimacy of U.S. financial hegemony by encouraging alternative trade systems beyond Washington’s reach.
The legacy of self-inflicted wounds
Trump’s foreign policy legacy will be studied for generations—not as a masterclass in strategic statecraft but as a cautionary tale of self-inflicted wounds. The Iran sanctions saga is merely the latest chapter in an ongoing pattern: aggressive policies that alienate allies, enrich adversaries, and accelerate the decline of U.S. global influence.
The only real winner in this theater of geopolitical absurdity? China. And they didn’t even have to try.