KEY TAKEAWAYS
- For the first time since 2004, Republicans won the popular vote, capturing 76 million votes, surpassing the Democrats’ 73 million. Furthermore, Republicans gained unified control of the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives.
- Gender and racial divides defined the election: men and white voters leaned Republican, while women and minority groups, particularly black voters, favoured Democrats.
- Republicans gained marginally across minority demographics but still struggled with non-white voters.
- Urban-rural polarisation remained stark, with rural white men aged 45–65 strongly supporting Republicans, and urban white women aged 18–44 backing Democrats.
- Democrats outperformed among higher-income households (over $100,000), marking a shift in historical voting patterns.
- Immigration, abortion, and cultural issues, such as opposition to “woke” politics, were decisive for Republican voters.
- Democrats prioritised democracy, social justice, and abortion rights, appealing to younger, urbanised constituencies.
- Despite their success, Republicans’ modest popular vote increase (2 million) reveals potential ceilings in their support.
- The Democratic collapse (8 million fewer votes than 2020) underscores challenges in uniting moderates and progressives.
- The elections highlight enduring polarisation and potential instability within the two-party system.
- Both parties face critical tests in addressing demographic shifts and ideological divides.
Replete with global implications, the U.S. elections of November 5, 2024 epitomised a complex interplay of demographic, social, and economic factors, revealing significant shifts and continuities in the American political landscape. For the first time since 2004, the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, secured the popular vote, amassing 76 million votes and surpassing the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, who received 73 million votes. This victory was complemented by the Republicans regaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, establishing a unified government under Republican leadership. This underscores a pivotal moment in American politics, reflecting evolving voter sentiments and demographic shifts: however, the result not only underscored the fragility, or collapse, of the Democratic coalition, but also hinted at the limits of the Republican resurgence despite their sweeping institutional victories.
Quantitative and qualitative divisions in the electorate
The elections of 2024 reflected a marked gender and racial divide. Men predominantly supported the Republicans (54–55%), while women leaned towards the Democrats (53%). Within these groups, white men emerged as a Republican stronghold (59–60%), whereas black women overwhelmingly supported the Democrats (89–91%). These figures are emblematic of persistent polarisation in U.S. politics, with race and gender remaining central axes of division.
Urban-rural disparities further amplified these trends. Rural white men aged 45-65 constituted a core Republican demographic, whereas urbanised white women aged 18-44 were pivotal to the Democratic vote. The geographic and sociocultural distinctions encapsulate the dichotomy of a nation divided between traditionalist, rural constituencies and progressive, urban enclaves.
Racial polarisation redux
Racial voting patterns underscored deep fissures in the American polity. While 55-57% of white voters supported the Republicans, black voters displayed overwhelming loyalty to the Democrats, with 83-85% backing the party. This trend was most pronounced among black women, a demographic whose voting cohesion has historically anchored the Democratic Party. However, the Republicans managed modest gains across non-white demographics, signalling a potential erosion of the Democratic dominance in these groups.
Quantitatively, contrasts within the white vote dominate, not only because there are 155 million white people of voting age compared to 78 million from other racial categories, but also because in the 2020 election, 73.3% of those who voted were white, while the remainder came from other racial categories (10.9% Black, 9.7% Hispanic, 3.9% Asian, and 2.3% others), who are underrepresented relative to white voters since they participate to a lesser extent in the electoral process. Even as the percentage of white voters decreases overall, i.e., demographically, their participation in elections has increased, revealing both a rallying of the white vote overall and also a polarization within it.
Economic alignments and shifting loyalties
Economic factors revealed nuanced shifts in party alignments. For the first time in decades, the Democrats outperformed the Republicans among wealthier households (incomes exceeding $100,000), while maintaining a slight edge among households earning less than $30,000. However, households with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 tilted more significantly towards the Republicans. This stratification highlights the Democrats’ challenge in consolidating their historical base among working-class voters while appealing to affluent urbanites. Exit polls further revealed narrow margins between the two parties across most income brackets. These modest differences reflect a growing homogenisation of class-based voting behaviour, contrasting starkly with the pronounced racial and gender divides.
Issue-based voting and ideological fragmentation
The election underscored the salience of specific issues, with voters’ priorities diverging starkly along party lines. Among Republicans, immigration emerged as a decisive factor, with 90% of their voters prioritising this issue. Similarly, Republican voters overwhelmingly opposed abortion (88-92%) and expressed scepticism towards progressive social movements. In contrast, Democratic voters highlighted concerns about democracy and social justice. A significant 80% identified the state of democracy as a critical issue, while support for abortion rights and LGBTQ+ issues was also high. These priorities reflect the party’s alignment with progressive causes, appealing to younger, urbanised, and more diverse constituencies.
Institutional triumphs and popular vote dynamics
While the Republicans secured majorities in both houses of Congress and the presidency, their popular vote increase was modest — rising by only two million compared to 2020. Conversely, the Democrats lost approximately eight million votes. This decline suggests that the Republican victory stemmed more from Democratic attrition than from a substantive quantitative expansion of their base. The party’s success, though undeniable, significant and impressive, reveals potential ceilings to their appeal, particularly in a rapidly diversifying electorate.
The Democratic collapse: Causes and implications
The Democratic Party’s decline in 2024 was stark, with their vote share falling significantly from 2020 levels. This collapse can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the leadership transition from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris likely contributed to voter alienation. Secondly, economic challenges and perceptions of ineffective governance further eroded support, particularly among moderate and working-class constituencies. Finally, the cultural polarisation surrounding progressive causes, while energising the Democratic base, may have alienated swing voters. The Democrats’ failure to counter Republican narratives on immigration, economic stagnation, and cultural issues further compounded their losses. This erosion of support underscores the fragility of their coalition, reliant on disparate groups with often conflicting priorities.
The Republican surge: Strengths and vulnerabilities
The Republican victory in 2024 was bolstered by a potent anti-establishment narrative. Donald Trump’s campaign successfully harnessed dissatisfaction with political correctness, the “woke” movement, and perceptions of governmental overreach. This resonated strongly among rural and conservative voters, solidifying the party’s base. However, the Republicans’ reliance on these themes also exposes vulnerabilities. Their limited appeal among younger, urban, and non-white voters poses challenges in maintaining long-term electoral viability. Additionally, the party’s gains in Congress, though substantial, do not guarantee broad public support, particularly if their policies alienate moderate constituencies.
Broader implications for American democracy
The 2024 elections highlight a deeply polarised electorate, with significant implications for governance and national cohesion. The racial and gender divides underscore persistent inequities and mistrust, while the urban-rural split reflects divergent visions for the country’s future. The elections also raise questions about the efficacy of the two-party system. Both parties face internal contradictions: the Democrats must reconcile progressive and moderate factions, while the Republicans must navigate the tension between populism and traditional conservatism. These dynamics suggest that American politics may remain volatile.
A moment of reckoning?
The 2024 elections represent a pivotal moment in American politics. For the Democrats, the results signal an urgent need for introspection and strategic recalibration. For the Republicans, the victory offers opportunities but also necessitates caution, as overreach or complacency could undermine their fragile coalition.
Ultimately, the elections underscore the complexity of the American electorate, shaped by intersecting lines of demographics, gender, race, identity, ethics and morals, economics, and ideology. They also disclose a U.S. society in deep crisis. Further amplified rather than dampened down, these divisions will likely continue to shape the U.S.’ political trajectory, adding a layer of problematisation to America’s transition from the unipolar moment of late memory to a multipolar global configuration—in which the U.S. is called to re-imagine itself somewhere within the spectrum ranging from mutually beneficial cooperation without hegemony to truculent bellicosity. The President-elect’s deliberate turn of phrase in his victory speech—“I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars”—will be tested in time, in view of both domestic tensions and global vicissitudes.
* Dimitris B. Peponis holds an MA in Governance and Public Policies from the University of the Peloponnese’s Department of Political Science and International Relations and is the author of “The End of the Great Deviation: From Ukraine and the Pandemic to the Shaping of the New Global Order” (Topos books, in Greek).