As the situation in the Middle East remains critical, Iran’s position in the geopolitical context seems as an intricate interplay of regional dynamics and the nation’s quest for survival and security. Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear technology is more a projection of its aspirations than merely a technical challenge, to establish deterrence against adversaries, leverage in negotiations and assert regional dominance.
Iran’s nuclear capability is now surpassing 60% purity of uranium enrichment approaching the 90% required for weapons-grade material, exceeding the provisions determined by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), bringing the Islamic Republic closer to the acquisition of nuclear weapons than ever.
Strategic considerations of Iran’s nuclear program
Iran’s nuclear ambitions have become an unwavering conviction for the state shaped by three interrelated factors, exposing its vulnerability and the reasons to pursue such a weaponization.
The security consideration derives from a threat sentiment as Tehran feels encircled by rivals, especially the U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf. While Iran has a regional influence with supporting militia groups across the MENA region, its proxy strategy against Israel demonstrated its strategic vulnerabilities. This resulted in the destruction of its most effective air and missile defense systems, severe setbacks to its offensive missile production, and most importantly the loss of three key allies: the Syrian government, Hamas, and Hezbollah. Therefore, demonstrating Iran’s willingness to destabilize the region.
Domestic challenges also play a major role in the Iranian nuclear program as it is a pillar of its national identity, even though it is forbidden in Islam, with fanatics of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) viewing it as a scientific achievement that prevails Western strain. However, the moribund economy, government instability, domestic protests and the overall political unrest have weakened the regime’s control.
Equally important is Tehran’s perception of deterrence, which is part of its Grand Strategy. Tehran accelerated the process of uranium enrichment activities and shows willingness to escalate the situation, especially when it comes to discrediting the JCPOA. In the search for negotiating leverages, there is the question of whether Iran will pursue a settlement with the Trump administration, amid new U.S. pressure campaigns, or the reduced control and collaboration between the Iranian regime and the International Atomic Energy Organization (IAEA) will lead to an irreversible shift and a nuclear breakout capacity.
Big players and regional realignments
Western powers acknowledge that key restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program imposed by the UN are to expire progressively starting on October 2025, reaching the “point of no return” as the French President Emmanuel Macron warned. The UN Resolution 2231, which anticipates provisions on a snapback mechanism that permits the reimposition of sanctions, will conclude on October 2025 and Iran will no longer need to be accountable to the IAEA for the standard safety guidelines.
At the same time, the U.S. relaunched its “maximum pressure” campaign in Iran to hinder any developments and limit any advancements, leading Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian to refuse to negotiate with Donald Trump under pressure. Hence, Tehran shifted its focus to its allies, Russia and China. By strengthening their trilateral relations through various strategic initiatives, from joint naval exercises to diplomatic talks on nuclear matters, Iran tries to prove its independence from the Western influence, approaching an alternative geopolitical bloc that can absorb the potential damage inflicted by Western sanctions, similar to the way Russia acted after the war on Ukraine.
On the same note, we shall not forget that China is Iran’s largest oil importer, and it is also an economic guarantee that Iranian financial mechanisms will remain afloat. This regional realignment is not new, and it serves as a counterbalance to the Western bloc. Moscow relies on Iranian drones and military cooperation while having an ally in the war in Ukraine. Apart from the financial aspect, Beijing benefits from expanding its influence in the Middle East.
What’s at stake?
Iran’s nuclear trajectory is at a pivotal moment as its uranium enrichment approaches weapons-grade levels and its geopolitical alliances shift towards a China-Russia axis. As restrictions of the JCPOA near to a conclusion and the U.S. is escalating the pressure, Tehran’s response will determine the future of non-proliferation in the region. Tehran now is at a crossroads, having to choose between risking an escalation in the region of MENA or pursuing a more nuanced and diplomatic solution that can ensure its strategic interests.
While living in a multipolar world where great power rivalries reshape the global arena, Iran’s choice on nuclear matters will not only redefine the Middle East but will also test the resilience of the international non-proliferation regime.
*Angeliki Vrettou is International Relations analyst.