India and China, the two leading powers in Asia, made a significant diplomatic breakthrough at the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024. The agreement, which focuses on patrolling rights along the contested Line of Actual Control (LAC), signals potential de-escalation in their long-standing territorial disputes. However, while this step brings cautious optimism, the journey toward stability remains marred by historical animosities and entrenched geopolitical complexities.
A landmark in a longstanding dispute
The roots of the Sino-Indian rivalry trace back to the 1950s, when China’s consolidation over Tibet displaced Indian forces and created new borders that ignited tensions. These tensions culminated in the 1962 war, which left key territorial disputes unresolved. Agreements signed in the 1990s reduced the risk of military escalation but failed to address the core issues.
Today, the LAC remains a major flashpoint. India asserts that the boundary stretches 3,488 km across three sectors—Western, Middle, and Eastern—while China disputes the length, claiming closer to 2,000 km, with Arunachal Pradesh in the Eastern sector at the heart of the disagreement.
Since 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has adopted a more assertive foreign policy, strengthening partnerships with the United States through frameworks like the Quad and rejecting China-led initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These shifts reflect growing concerns over China’s assertiveness. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in fatalities on both sides, further deepened the mistrust.
At the 2024 BRICS Summit, Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time in five years, presenting the LAC agreement as a step toward normalizing ties. India emphasized a “border before broader” approach, seeking peace along the boundary as a prerequisite for restoring relations. In contrast, China’s “broader before border” stance favors maintaining overall ties while disagreements persist. Despite this divergence, the pact indicates incremental progress, though the road ahead remains fraught with challenges.
© Retrieved from: https://upscwithnikhil.com/article/international-relations/lac-vs-locPakistan’s role in Sino-Indian relations
Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China adds another layer of complexity to the Sino-Indian dynamic. The three nations form a “strategic triangle” that significantly shapes South Asia’s security environment.
For China, Pakistan serves as a key ally in counterbalancing India’s regional influence. Islamabad, in turn, relies heavily on Beijing for military and economic support. Their alliance extends from military cooperation to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a critical component of China’s BRI. The CPEC connects Kashgar in China to Gwadar Port in Pakistan, traversing Pakistan-occupied Kashmir—a region disputed by India. This infrastructure project has been a persistent source of tension, as India views it as an infringement on its sovereignty.
China’s support for Pakistan is not limited to infrastructure. Beijing has supplied Islamabad with advanced weaponry, missiles, and even critical support for its nuclear program—though both nations deny direct nuclear collaboration. U.S. intelligence reports, however, suggest that without Chinese assistance, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal would not have materialized.
For Pakistan, China remains a crucial guarantor of security, especially in the face of ongoing tensions with India over Jammu and Kashmir. Meanwhile, China occupies parts of this contested region, including Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Valley. This entrenched Sino-Pakistani alliance undermines prospects for a meaningful Sino-Indian rapprochement, perpetuating cycles of mistrust and hostility.
A fragile step toward stability
The agreement between India and China represents a significant move toward de-escalating tensions in the region. However, it addresses a narrow set of issues and appears more tactical than transformative. The enduring challenges of unresolved territorial disputes, the influence of Pakistan as a counterweight to India, and the broader implications of the U.S.-China rivalry complicate the path to lasting peace.
India’s quest for regional stability hinges on navigating its alliances with global powers while remaining vigilant toward China’s next moves. The evolving dynamics between these Asian giants, alongside the role of Pakistan, will define South Asia’s security and the broader geopolitical order in the coming years.
*Angeliki Vrettou is International Relations analyst.
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